I agree with pretty much all of what you said, and I also wanted to add a bit more along these lines. It's all pretty much anecdotal, so take it for what it's worth.
Engineers that I've worked with in China are wildly different from what I consider engineers in the US. They seem to be better at making a given process ruthlessly efficient, but they're not so great at creative problem solving--I suspect it's a cultural thing more than anything else, but that's just an opinion.
So I think that China is great at adding value in making things efficient and cheap from an operational standpoint, but I don't think they add a lot of new ideas, which are an outcome of creative thinking. Once there are countries more desperate for manufacturing money (South America region, maybe?), China will have a problem because the jobs will leave and they will have to find a way to generate value in other ways.
For now, they don't really own many brands that people know; they manufacture white-label goods, so to speak, but I can't think of any specifically Chinese name-brand goods that people buy because they are superior to anything we have in the US. Sure, a huge portion of stuff is made in China, but when was the last time something big was invented in China?
It fits with your initial point, that China is dependent on US ideas, whereas the US loves their low prices, but ultimately doesn't need them.
I think that 15 years ago that was true of Korean manufacturers, and look at them now. Hyundai was a brand that was fairly reliable, but was ridiculed in popular media. Now it's on par with Japanese brands and often considered premium. Also, Samsung went from making parts for everything to developing and marketing their own premium products. Chinese manufacturers can easily follow this same path and I think it is already happening.
The camera industry is a familiar example— both Canon & Nikon began by making copies of German Leica and Contax cameras, then tweaked them, then moved into innovative original designs. By the 70s or 80s, Canon and Nikon had surmounted their industry, while Contax was bought by a Japanese bit player and Leica was reduced to a niche luxury manufacturer.
http://www.canon.com/camera-museum/history/canon_story/1946_...http://www.kenrockwell.com/nikon/rangefinder/sp.htm
And yet, Japanese and Korean engineers still have problems with creativity relative to their western counterparts. A lot of that has to do with a hierarchical Confucian culture. Sure, they've mastered quality and efficiency, but some areas need more than that, namely software.
Except Korea and Japan aren't autocracies. They're just so much more flexible by having an open democratic process and open markets. The CCP is its own roadblock in China. Sure it can make special economic zones and play command economy with construction and development (lets ignore the ghost towns they have built for now), but that approach is self-limiting.
China won't liberalize the way Korea and Japan did after the war. They're very much in bed with complete political, economic, and cultural control. That means worse outcomes from a capitalist point of view. They can only manufacture US widgets and steal blueprints for so long. They really don't have a capitalist and innovators culture. Usually that's a temporary problem in western-style governments, but in an autocracy its fatal. Look at Putin's terrible oil-based economy. Autocrats can't play the open liberalization game because autocracy is naturally very, very conservative and controlling. Part of this game, if not the most important part, is giving up quite a bit political control and performing regulatory actions that hurt the top players like fighting corruption, preserving competition, protecting IP and property rights, helping labor movements go forward, and cleaning up the environment. Autocracies dont often do these things. If they did, they would probably cease to be autocracies.
> They really don't have a capitalist and innovators culture.
Have you ever read any of Bunnie's many articles about shanzhai? Sure, the big corps in China are state-controlled monoliths, but the grassroots level is seething with innovation and way more capitalist in a "red in tooth and claw" sense, unconstrained by silly Western ideas about intellectual property, health & safety, etc.
Engineers that I've worked with in China are wildly different from what I consider engineers in the US. They seem to be better at making a given process ruthlessly efficient, but they're not so great at creative problem solving--I suspect it's a cultural thing more than anything else, but that's just an opinion.
So I think that China is great at adding value in making things efficient and cheap from an operational standpoint, but I don't think they add a lot of new ideas, which are an outcome of creative thinking. Once there are countries more desperate for manufacturing money (South America region, maybe?), China will have a problem because the jobs will leave and they will have to find a way to generate value in other ways.
For now, they don't really own many brands that people know; they manufacture white-label goods, so to speak, but I can't think of any specifically Chinese name-brand goods that people buy because they are superior to anything we have in the US. Sure, a huge portion of stuff is made in China, but when was the last time something big was invented in China?
It fits with your initial point, that China is dependent on US ideas, whereas the US loves their low prices, but ultimately doesn't need them.