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Ask HN: Let's predict. What's your prediction for 2014?
19 points by sideproject on Dec 23, 2013 | hide | past | favorite | 59 comments
ok, so as usual, bloggers are starting to write their usual "My prediction for 2014" pieces.

e.g. http://readwrite.com/2013/12/20/mobile-smartwatches-google-glass-apple-android-ios-2014-predictions

Wanted to do something similar here and ask what others think 2014 will bring in startups/tech industry.

Let's keep it simple by only writing ONE prediction at a time. I'm thinking it might be slightly easier to discuss, share links and vote.

SSD prices down to 25c/GB by 14Q3.

The advent of the Steam cube will probably increase sales for microatx/itx (I want to shove $2,400 in hardware in a portable computer too).

Academics will still rely on Perl instead of GPUs.

Potentially the rebirth of engines. There has been a large amount of media revolving around electric vehicles and conventional engine waste. Sometimes, media can get the cogs flowing for the right person.

A large amount of misinformed HR reps during the reenrollment period!

144hz monitors utilizing Nvidia's GSYNC will be a huge game changer for gamers (aha). Variable refresh will probably get us extremely close of the beauty of the good ole 22inch CRT monitors.

Rift will hopefully be the iPhone of VR. Not the 'everyone needs one', but the 'this is something you have to see to believe' factor. We have been stale for a bit on the electronic wow factor.

The consumer version of the oculus rift, and google goggles are released ultimately overshadowing the "smart watches" that are receiving much greater publicity. The rift is underwhelming for some who expected much greater things, but to most realize its the first step in something really bit. Google goggles on the other hand is a much greater disappointment as people were expecting true augmented reality, and received a head wearable camera and a box that tells them they got a new email. Still there's enough potential in there that tech nerds are excited.

Bitcoin has a yearly bubble, but the underpinnings of a possible successor are born (but hardly noticed) that tries to embrace modern economic principals.

Just to be clear, you mean Google Glass, right?

Shoot, yes I did.

So peercoin? Its designed around a 1% annual inflation which random people on the internet told me is important.

My prediction for 2014 is that at the end of 2014, someone on Hacker News will ask for predictions of 2015. Have a happy new year.

A BRIC country will announce and maybe release a serious Intel processor competitor for the desktop and server based on a 64bit ARM design.

It will be a serious effort to move their technology stack off American technology, not an Arm on a blade type play

Blackberry is sold off in pieces or otherwise goes out of business. We see the last of the Blackberry phones - a failure like all the ones they've released recently.

I actually quite like the Blackberry hardware (with the qwerty keyboards). But the software is absolutely dire, they should try putting Android on it.

Yeah, I would really love to get a device that embodies the keyboard-version of the original Android prototypes.

I was having a chat with someone this morning and said that I thought stream processing would be big in 2014 in response to reactive programming [1].

I'm checking out Kafka [2] and Storm [3] over the holidays in preperation for this.

[1] https://www.coursera.org/course/reactive [2] https://kafka.apache.org/ [3] http://storm-project.net/

Probably a good call.

CEP (Complex Event Processing) has been used in trading systems since about 2004, earliest I've heard of. By about 2008, it was widely in use in the industry.

It's now considered an old technology, meaning it has to be part of your tool box but no longer gives you any competitive advantage.

I don't see it going away, but the biggest problems with it now is its speed.

Solve how to you guarantee that a signal will flow through your system in a guaranteed time and you can make some money.

Or put another way, trading systems are often like video games. Just like how video games engines limit the time an engine has to draw a frame a trading system will limit the time it takes to make a buy/sell decision based on an input.

TL/DR CEP or streaming architectures often don't guarentee all rules will be run over an input in a guarenteed time frame.

I believe Spark [1] might take the place of Storm as it unifies streaming and batch processing.

[1] http://spark.incubator.apache.org/

Imgur gets acquired, either by Yahoo, Reddit, or someone with reason to hurt those companies by keeping Imgur out of their hands.

For example, imagine what a jumpstart it would be for the new Digg.

Microsoft is going to live in "interesting times" in 2014 after XP support expires in April. A lot of owners will demand Windows 7 computers over Windows 8. No one will be happy.

Price of a bitcoin rises to $10,000 by June 2014.

Apple releases their next shocking piece of innovation: a tablet or phone that is two inches larger or smaller than the last one they released with number++.

And makes an attempt to force all OSX developers to deliver via the App store.

The year of Linux desktop.

1998 called. They want their prediction back!

I'm going to be in the market for a laptop soon. I used to be windows only guy for many years, then I started using a mac book air because I liked the hardware better. However I'm very frustrated by the way I can't upgrade anything. When I buy a new laptop, i'm going to buy the highest quality machine I can (that will let me upgrade the memory, and hard drive) regardless of the OS.

This prediction seems to have limited chance of success :


(sad, really)

I don't think people who want to switch or run Linux does a search for "linux desktop" more likely they've heard of some and do a search for that.

For comparison: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22linux%20desktop%22...

My first thought: What normal person uses the word "Desktop"?

It doesn't sound weird in the context of "Year of the linux desktop", because we are so used to that meme, but otherwise, the word "desktop" seems old-fashioned. See also[1].

[1] http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Desktop&cmpt=q

Twitch will get their shit together and reach a point where, from a technical perspective, storing and watching video game recordings works as well there as it does on YouTube.

Then they'll start using their tremendous influence on the gaming world, and their willingness to offer a UX tuned precisely for this one purpose, to actually convince a significant share of the gaming (and game-watching) community to make the switch.

This, combined with the massively-underappreciated size of the video-game-watching community, will make them a must-have acquisition for either YouTube or someone who wants to hurt YouTube.

I wonder what happens to the Youtube/Twitch dynamic after a huge amount of video game content got claimed on Youtube. It seems that if they can do it to Youtube they'll be able to do it to Twitch if them creators just move there.

Bitcoin to collapse to under $0.1, or lower It's just a pyramid scheme anyway.

Apple releases the iWatch marketed as a fitness tool (like readwrite said), flops because it's not a perfect watch replacement in other situations, analysts claim Apple is dying, Apple makes record profit and ends the year as the most valuable company.

Probably led by Samsung, Android dominates a product category that probably doesn't exist yet by the end of the year. Readwrite are probably right about Samsung taking Android 64-bit first, although they probably won't release anything on Android with > 4gb RAM next year (but will probably be first to market with one in 2015).

Moonshot prediction: Bitcoin explodes on rumours of Amazon adoption, only for Amazon to create their own virtual/cryptocurrency. Bitcoin falls apart and Amazon's coin sees more transaction value almost immediately. This is seriously unlikely, but I've seen speculation about what happens if Amazon adopts, and don't think people consider that they'd probably prefer to control.

First crowd-sourced politician.

Was already tried here in Germany (Pirate Party), and failed miserably. Turns out, having the raging party yelling at you at all times leads to quasi-instant burnout.

Bitcoin to reach $10000 usd. It increased 10 times in 2013, so why not again.

Simpsons' funny take on why extrapolating from past results can be bad: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BcCWP8wCIAA4LQw.jpg

Nice. This is mainly the reason I find kurzweil's predictions hard to swallow. Although he essentially argues that a series of s-curves for each separate technology add together to form never ending exponential growth overall. Not sure I buy it. I mean you could look at the music industry growth as a series of s-curves for each genre, which have produced good overall growth, but then that growth has now stalled.

War on Bitcoin.

Google+ boss Vic Gundotra will be fired.

Snapchat is acquired for $4+ billion.

2015 prediction: Snapchat acquirer writes-off 95% of the +$4 bn price tag ;-)

The only one I ever find reliable is "more of the same." It's a pretty safe bet, regardless of what you're trying to predict.

Amazon delivery drones are demonstrated in limited, controlled tests.

If I'm only getting one prediction, I'll make it my wildest. ;-)

That's your wildest? :) The sun's polarity switches and NYC is drowned by a giant wave.

http://predictionbook.com is a better place to do this...

And now for my real prediction.....

VIrtual reality headsets (either Oculus, or whoever) go mainstream and become the future of gaming. If one console gets a device released significantly ahead of the other (or even exclusively via some deal) will win this generations console war.

My prediction is that I will buy a new laptop, probably a MacBook Pro 13 retina. :)

In 2014, Apple continues to sell overpriced hardware.

Snowden comes in from the cold, while Assange stalemate ends in a dramatic way.

Your Snowden prediction could be interpreted a number of ways. Which one do you mean?

Facebook releases another phone, and this time, it actually does pretty well.

A non-CALEA US sponsored hardware backdoor is discovered in actual equipment.

Retail Indoor Locationing (aka iBeacons) and their applications in stores will become mainstream. We are moving towards the intelligent store that talks back to you and offer personalized service.

Retail Indoor Locationing (aka iBeacons) and their applications in stores will not become mainstream.

SF's tech industry organizes some sort of campaign to get residents to realize that the solution to high rent is not to burn effigies of corporate shuttles, but rather to build more housing.

We'll start seeing new, stricter laws about when you're allowed to photograph/film others and share those recordings online. (in reaction to Google Glass & co)

The next Nest product will be a home security system. If you already own Nest thermostats or smoke detectors, their motion sensors will do double-duty as security alarms.

Microsoft will introduce a phone with a keyboard and hardened security to grab some of Blackberry’s fading market share.

Human aging is reversed.

Contextual Signaling gets noticed, dESP common by 2018.


2014 will finally be the year for Linux.

iPhone 6.

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