I'm sure this will not be a matter to be resolved by fighter jets. This is a regular commercial jet and if asked to land by air traffic control, it will land instead of going rogue. So as long as it stays off actual US airspace, it should be fine.
I wasn't implying they would shot his plane. I could imagine the USAF "asking" the pilot to land on the airbase but I don't think any of these things will happen to him.
The captain is not going to comply with such a request. An unscheduled landing is, if not illegal in a relevant jurisdiction, at least unnecessarily risky.
There are only two commercial flights between Asia and Latin America. One flys between Mexico City and, on alternate trips, Shanghai or Tokyo. The other is between Dubai and Sāo Paulo.
The Mexican flight crosses a lot of US airspace.
Everything else requires stops in North America or Europe.
Lack of available flights? Flights from East Asia and Oceania to the Americas are relatively rare and expensive compared to going the other way via Europe.
Plus why didn't they charter a plane? I'm sure Russia has quite a few rusty Tupolevs standing around and pilots that can probably even fly blindfolded the route to Havana.
But maybe the idea is some form of human-shield and protection against unhappy "accidents" by relying on regular passenger flights.
This is a smart move. There is no way the US will use force against a passenger plane just to get Snowden, so the pilot can safely ignore any US demands and continue on to Havana regardless of air space and threats, though it will take guts. Perhaps there will be a last minute shift change and a GRU pilot will end up in the cockpit.
The Pacific can be pretty stormy and also lonely this time of year.
Plus, a plane with Snowden and a few "incidentals" is a easier to justify politically than Snowden and a hundred civilians from various countries. I mean, wouldn't that be what terrorists do?
This strikes me as a non-issue. This case is far too high profile for the US to risk the diplomatic and PR fallout from forcing or otherwise coercing a commercial airliner to land unexpectedly.
And it's a Russian airline. Should there be a diplomatic incident, Russia has the means to carry out diplomacy by other means. A flight from Moscow was not chosen by lowest cost on Travelocity. Everyone is wearing big boy pants.
Perhaps strings can be pulled so it takes the same route again.