I really hope they have because I’ve also been experimenting with LLMs to automate searching through old archival handwritten documents. I’m interested in the Conquistadors and their extensive accounts of their expeditions, but holy cow reading 16th century handwritten Spanish and translating it at the same time is a nightmare, requiring a ton of expertise and inside field knowledge. It doesn’t help that they were often written in the field by semi-literate people who misused lots of words. Even the simplest accounts require quite a lot of detective work to decipher with subtle signals like that pound sign for the sugar loaf.
> Whatever it is, users have reported some truly wild things: it codes fully functioning Windows and Apple OS clones, 3D design software, Nintendo emulators, and productivity suites from single prompts.
This I’m a lot more skeptical of. The linked twitter post just looks like something it would replicate via HTML/CSS/JS. Whats the kernel look like?
>I’m interested in the Conquistadors and their extensive accounts of their expeditions, but holy cow reading 16th century handwritten Spanish and translating it at the same time is a nightmare, requiring a ton of expertise and inside field knowledge
Completely off topic, but out of curiosity, where are you reading these documents? As a Spaniard I’m kinda interested.
I use the Portal de Archivos Españoles [1] for Spanish colonial documents. Each country has their own archive but the Spanish one has the most content (35 million digitized pages)
The hard part is knowing where to look since most of the images haven’t gone through HRT/OCR or indexing so you have to understand Spanish colonial administration and go through the collections to find stuff.
Hit me up, if you can. I’m focused on neolatin texts from the renaissance. Less than 30% of known book editions have been scanned and less than 5% translated. And that’s before even getting to the manuscripts.
You should maybe reach out to the author of this blog post, professor Mark Humphries. Or to the genealogy communities, we struggle with handwritten historical texts no public AI model can make a dent in, regularly.
Spaniard here. Let me know if I can somehow help navigate all of that. I’m very interested in history and everything related to the 1400-1500 period (although I’m not an expert by any definition) and I’d love to see what modern technology could do here, specially OCRs and VLMs.
This is not an OS as in emulating a kernel in javascript or wasm, this is making a web app that looks like the desktop of an OS.
I have seen plenty such projects, some mimick windows UI entirely, you xan find them via google.
So this was definitely in the training data, and is not as impressive as the blog post or the twitter thread make it to be.
The scary thing is the replies in the twitter thread have no critical thinking at all and are impressed beyond belief, they think it coded a whole kernel, os, made an interpeter for it, ported games etc.
I think this is the reason why some people are so impressed by AI, when you can only judge an app visually or only how you intetcat with it and don't have the depth of knowledge to understand, for such people it works all the way.land AI seems magical beyond comprehension.
Every time a model is about to be released, there are a bunch of these hype accounts that spin up. I don't know they get paid or they spring up organically to farm engagement. Last time there was such hype for a model was "strawberry" (o1) then gpt-5, and both turned out to be meaningful improvements but nowhere near the hype.
I don't doubt though that new models will be very good at frontend webdev. In fact this is explicitly one of the recent lmarena tasks so all the labs have probably been optimizing for it.
I’d also bet my car on there being a ton of AI product/policy/optics astroturfing/shilling going on, here and everywhere else. Social proof is a hell of a marketing tool and I see a lot of comments suspiciously bullish about mediocre things, or suspiciously aggressive towards people that aren’t enthused. I don’t have any direct proof so I could be wrong, but it seems more extreme than a iPhone/Android (though I suspect deliberate marketing forces there, too,) Ford/Chevy brand-based-identity kind of thing, and naive to think this tactic is limited to TikTok and Instagram videos. The crowd here is so targeted, I wouldn’t be surprised if a single-digit percentage of the comments are laying down plausible comment history facade for marketing use. The economics might make it worthwhile for the professional manipulators of the world.
While it is obviously much easier than creating a real OS, some people have created desktop managers web apps, with resizeable and movable windows, apps such as terminals, nodepads, file explorer etc.
This is still a challenging task and requires lots of work to get this far.
I'd love to find more info on this but from what I can find it seems to be making webpages that look like those product, and seemingly can "run python" or "emulate a game" but writing something that, based on all of GitHub, can approximate an iPhone or emulator in javscript/css/HTML is very very very different than writing an OS.
My language does not use Latin letters, but they are separate letters. Is there a way to train some handwriting recognition on my own handwriting in my own language, such that it will be effective and useful? I mostly need to recognize text in PDF documents, generated by writing on an e-ink tablet with an EMR stylus.
Oh! That's a nice use-case and not too far from stuff I have been playing with! (happily I do not have to deal with handwriting, just bad scans of older newspapers and texts)
I can vouch for the fact that LLMs are great at searching in the original language, summarizing key points to let you know whether a document might be of interest, then providing you with a translation where you need one.
The fun part has been build tools to turn Claude code and Codex CLI into capable research assistant for that type of projects.
> The fun part has been build tools to turn Claude code and Codex CLI into capable research assistant for that type of projects.
What does that look like? How well does it work?
I ended up writing a research TUI with my own higher level orchestration (basically have the thing keep working in a loop until a budget has been reached) and document extraction.
I started with a UI that sounded like it was built along the same lines as yours, which had the advantage of letting me enforce a pipeline and exhaustivity of search (I don't want the 10 most promising documents, I want all of them).
But I realized I was not using it much because it was that big and inflexible (plus I keep wanting to stamp out all the bugs, which I do not have the time to do on a hobby project). So I ended up extracting it into MCPs (equipped to do full-text search and download OCR from the various databases I care about) and AGENTS.md files (defining pipelines, as well as patterns for both searching behavior and reporting of results). I also put together a sub-agent for translation (cutting away all tools besides reading and writing files, and giving it some document-specific contextual information).
That lets me use Claude Code and Codex CLI (which, anecdotally, I have found to be the better of the two for that kind of work; it seems to deal better with longer inputs produced by searches) as the driver, telling them what I am researching and maybe how I would structure the search, then letting them run in the background before checking their report and steering the search based on that.
It is not perfect (if a search surfaces 300 promising documents, it will not check all of them, and it often misunderstands things due to lacking further context), but I now find myself reaching for it regularly, and I polish out problems one at a time. The next goal is to add more data sources and to maybe unify things further.
> It is not perfect (if a search surfaces 300 promising documents, it will not check all of them, and it often misunderstands things due to lacking further context)
This has been the biggest problem for me too. I jokingly call it the LLM halting problem because it never knows the proper time to stop working on something, finishing way too fast without going through each item in the list. That’s why I’ve been doing my own custom orchestration, drip feeding it results with a mix of summarization and content extraction to keep the context from different documents chained together.
Especially working with unindexed content like colonial documents where I’m searching through thousands of pages spread (as JPEGs) over hundreds of documents for a single one that’s relevant to my research, but there are latent mentions of a name that ties them all together (like a minor member of an expedition giving relevant testimony in an unrelated case). It turns into a messy web of named entity recognition and a bunch of more classical NLU tasks, except done with an LLM because I’m lazy.
I'm skeptical that they're actually capable of making something novel. There are thousands of hobby operating systems and video game emulators on github for it to train off of so it's not particularly surprising that it can copy somebody else's homework.
I remain confused but still somewhat interested as to a definition of "novel", given how often this idea is wielded in the AI context. How is everyone so good at identifying "novel"?
For example, I can't wrap my head around how a) a human could come up with a piece of writing that inarguably reads "novel" writing, while b) an AI could be guaranteed to not be able to do the same, under the same standard.
Generally novel either refers to something that is new, or a certain type of literature. If the AI is generating something functionally equivalent to a program in its training set (in this case, dozens or even hundreds of such programs) then it by definition cannot be novel.
This is quite a narrow view of how the generation works. AI can extrapolate from the training set and explore new directions. It's not just cutting pieces and gluing together.
Calling it “exploring” is anthropomorphising. The machine has weights that yield meaningful programs given specification-like language. It’s a useful phenomenon but it may be nothing like what we do.
Do you have any concrete examples you'd care to share? While this new wave of AI doesn't have unlimited powers of extrapolation, the post we're commenting on is asserting that this latest AI from Google was able to extrapolate solutions to two of AI's oldest problems, which would seem to contradict an assertion of "very limited".
Positively not. It is pure interpolation and not extrapolation. The training set is vast and supports an even vaster set of possible traversal paths; but they are all interpolative.
Same with diffusion and everything else. It is not extrapolation that you can transfer the style of Van Gogh onto a photographl it is interpolation.
Extrapolation might be something like inventing a style: how did Van Gogh do that?
And, sure, the thing can invent a new style---as a mashup of existing styles. Give me a Picasso-like take on Van Gogh and apply it to this image ...
Maybe the original thing there is the idea of doing that; but that came from me! The execution of it is just interpolation.
This is knock against you at all, but in a naive attempt to spare someone else some time: remember that based on this definition it is impossible for an LLM to do novel things and more importantly, you're not going to change how this person defines a concept as integral to one's being as novelty.
I personally think this is a bit tautological of a definition, but if you hold it, then yes LLMs are not capable of anything novel.
I think you should reverse the question, why would we expect LLMs to even have the ability to do novel things?
It is like expecting a DJ remixing tracks to output original music. Confusing that the DJ is not actually playing the instruments on the recorded music so they can't do something new beyond the interpolation. I love DJ sets but it wouldn't be fair to the DJ to expect them to know how to play the sitar because they open the set with a sitar sample interpolated with a kick drum.
A lot of musicians these days are using sample libraries instead of actually holding real instruments in their hands. It’s not just DJs or electronic producers. It’s remarkable that Brendan Perry of Dead Can Dance, for example, who played guitar and bass as a young man and once amassed a collection of exotic instruments from around the world, built recent albums largely out of instrument sample libraries. One of technology’s effects on culture that maybe doesn’t get talked about as much as outright electronic genres.
kid koala does jazz solos on a disk of 12 notes, jumping the track back and forth to get different notes.
i think that, along with the sitar player are still interpolating. the notes are all there on the instrument. even without an instrument, its still interpolating. the space that music and aound can be in is all well known wave math. if you draw a fourier transform view, you could see one chart with all 0, and a second with all +infinite, and all music and sound is gonna sit somewhere between the two.
i dont know that "just interpolation" is all that meaningful to whether something is novel or interesting.
If he plucked one of the 13 strings of a koto, we wouldn't say he is just remixing the vibration of the koto. Perhaps we could say that, if we had justification. There is a way of using a musical instrument as just a noise maker to produce its characteristics sounds.
Similarly, a writer doesn't just remix the alphabet, spaces and punctuation symbols. A randomly generated soup of those symbols could the thought of as their remix, in a sense.
The question is, is there a meaning being expressed using those elements as symbols?
Or is just the mixing all there is to the meaning? I.e. the result says "I'm a mix of this stuff and nothing more".
If you mix Alphagetti and Zoodles, you don't have a story about animals.
That is not strictly true, because being able to transfer the style of Van Gogh onto an arbitrary photographic scene is novel in a sense, but it is interpolative.
Mashups are not purely derivative: the choice of what to mash up carries novelty: two (or more) representations are mashed together which hitherto have not been.
uhhh can it? I've certainly not seen any evidence of an AI generating something not based on its training set. It's certainly smart enough to shuffle code around and make superficial changes, and that's pretty impressive in its own way but not particularly useful unless your only goal is to just launder somebody else's code to get around a licensing problem (and even then it's questionable if that's a derived work or not).
Honest question: if AI is actually capable of exploring new directions why does it have to train on what is effectively the sum total of all human knowledge? Shouldn't it be able to take in some basic concepts (language parsing, logic, etc) and bootstrap its way into new discoveries (not necessarily completely new but independently derived) from there? Nobody learns the way an LLM does.
ChatGPT, to the extent that it is comparable to human cognition, is undoubtedly the most well-read person in all of history. When I want to learn something I look it up online or in the public library but I don't have to read the entire library to understand a concept.
You have to realize AI is trained the same way one would train an auto-completer.
Theres no cognition. It’s not taught language, grammar, etc. none of that!
It’s only seen a huge amount of text that allows it to recognize answers to questions. Unfortunately, it appears to work so people see it as the equivalent to sci-fi movie AI.
I agree and that's the case I'm trying to make. The machine-learning community expects us to believe that it is somehow comparable to human cognition, yet the way it learns is inherently inhuman. If an LLM was in any way similar to a human I would expect that, like a human, it might require a little bit of guidance as it learns but ultimately it would be capable of understanding concepts well enough that it doesn't need to have memorized every book in the library just to perform simple tasks.
In fact, I would expect it to be able to reproduce past human discoveries it hasn't even been exposed to, and if the AI is actually capable of this then it should be possible for them to set up a controlled experiment wherein it is given a limited "education" and must discover something already known to the researchers but not the machine. That nobody has done this tells me that either they have low confidence in the AI despite their bravado, or that they already have tried it and the machine failed.
There’s a third possible reason which is that they’re taking it as a given that the machine is “intelligent” as a sales tactic, and they’re not academic enough to want to test anything they believe.
Is it? I only see a few individuals, VCs, and tech giants overblowing LLMs capabilities (and still puzzled as to how the latter dragged themselves into a race to the bottom through it). I don't believe the academic field really is that impressed with LLMs.
no it's not I work on AI and what these things do are much much more then a search engine or an autocomplete. If an autocomplete passed the turing test you'd dismiss it because it's still an autocomplete.
The characterization you are regurgitating here is from laymen who do not understand AI. You are not just mildly wrong but wildly uninformed.
Well, I also work on AI, and I completely agree with you. But I've reached the point of thinking it's hopeless to argue with people about this: It seems that as LLMs become ever better people aren't going to change their opinions, as I had expected. If you don't have good awareness of how human cognition actually works, then it's not evidently contradictory to think that even a superintelligent LLM trained on all human knowledge is just pattern matching and that humans are not. Creativity, understanding, originality, intent, etc, can all be placed into a largely self-consistent framework of human specialness.
To be fair, it's not clear human intelligence is much more than search or autocomplete. The only thing that's clear here is that LLMs can't reproduce it.
Yes but colloquially this characterization you see used by laymen is deliberately used to deride AI and dismiss it. It is not honest about the on the ground progress AI has made and it’s not intellectual honest about the capabilities and weaknesses of Ai.
I disagree. The actual capabilities of LLMs remain unclear, and there's a great deal of reasons to be suspicious of anyone whose paycheck relies on pimping them.
The capabilities of LLMs are unclear but it is clear that they are not just search engines or autocompletes or stochastic parrots.
You can disagree. But this is not an opinion. You are factually wrong if you disagree. And by that I mean you don’t know what you’re talking about and you are completely misinformed and lack knowledge.
The long term outcome if I’m right is that AI abilities continue to grow and it basically destroys my career and yours completely. I stand not to benefit from this reality and I state it because it is reality. LLMs improve every month. It’s already to the point of where if you’re not vibe coding you’re behind.
Let me be utterly clear. People with your level of programming skill who incorporate AI into their workflow are in general significantly more productive than you. You are a less productive, less effective programmer if you are not using AI. That is a fundamental fact. And all of this was not true a year ago.
Again if you don’t agree then you are lost and uninformed. There are special cases where there are projects where human coding is faster but that is a minority.
Isn't that what's going on with synthetic data? The LLM is trained, then is used to generate data that gets put into the training set, and then gets further trained on that generated data?
You didn’t have to read the whole library because your brain has been absorbing knowledge from multiple inputs your entire life. AI systems are trying to temporally compress a lifetime into the time of training. Then, given that these systems have effectively a single input method of streams of bits, they need immense amounts of it to be knowledgeable at all.
OK, but by that definition, how many human software developers ever develop something "novel"? Of course, the "functionally equivalent" term is doing a lot of heavy lifting here: How equivalent? How many differences are required to qualify as different? How many similarities are required to qualify as similar? Which one overrules the other? If I write an app that's identical to Excel in every single aspect except that instead of a Microsoft Flight Simulator easter egg, there's a different, unique, fully playable game that can't be summed up with any combination of genre lables, is that 'novel'?
I think the importance is the ability. Not every human have produced (or even can) something novel in their life, but there are humans who have time after time.
Meanwhile, depending on how you rate LLM's capabilities, no matter how many trials you give it, it may not be considered capable of that.
At any point prior to the final output it can garner huge starting point bias from ingested reference material. This can be up to and including whole solutions to the original prompt minus some derivations. This is effectively akin to cheating for humans as we cant bring notes to the exam. Since we do not have a complete picture of where every part of the output comes from we are at a loss to explain if it indeed invented it or not. The onus is and should be on the applicant to ensure that the output wasn't copied (show your work), not on the graders to prove that it wasn't copied. No less than what would be required if it was a human.
Ultimately it boils down to what it means to 'know' something, whether a photographic memory is, in fact, knowing something, or rather derivations based on other messy forms of symbolism.
It is nevertheless a huge argument as both sides have a mountain of bias in either directions.
Not that specifically but I certainly have the capability to create my own OS without having to refer to the source code of existing operating systems. Literally "creating a linux" is a bit on the impossible side because it implies compatibility with an existing kernel despite the constraints prohibiting me from referring to the source of that existing kernel (maybe possible if i had some clean-room RE team that would read through the source and create a list of requirements without including any source).
If we're all on the same page regarding the origins of human intelligence (ie, that it does not begin with satan tricking adam and eve into eating the fruit of a tree they were specifically instructed not to touch) then it necessarily follows that any idea or concept was new at some point and had to be developed by somebody who didn't already have an entire library of books explaining the solution at his disposal.
For the Linux thought-experiment you could maybe argue that Linux isn't totally novel since its creator was intentionally mimicking behavior of an existing well-known operating system (also iirc he had access to the minix source) and maybe you could even argue that those predecessors stood on the shoulders of their own proverbial giants, but if we keep kicking the ball down the road eventually we reach a point where somebody had an idea which was not in any way inspired by somebody else's existing idea.
The argument I want to make is not that humans never create derivative or unoriginal works (that obviously cannot be true) but that humans have the capability to create new things. I'm not convinced that LLMs have that same capability; maybe I'm wrong but I'm still waiting to see evidence of them discovering something new. As I said in another post, this could easily be demonstrated with a controlled experiment in which the model is bootstrapped with a basic yet intentionally-limited "education" and then tasked with discovering something already known to the experimenters which was not in its training set.
>Did you create anything that you are certain your peers would recognize as more "novel" than anything a LLM could produce?
Yes, I have definitely created things without first reading every book in the library and memorizing thousands of existing functionally-equivalent solutions to the same problem. So have you so long as I'm not actually debating an LLM right now.
If the model can map an unseen problem to something in its latent space, solve it there, map back and deliver an ultimately correct solution, is it novel? Genuine question, ‘novel’ doesn’t seem to have a universally accepted definition here
> For example, I can't wrap my head around how a) a human could come up with a piece of writing that inarguably reads "novel" writing, while b) an AI could be guaranteed to not be able to do the same, under the same standard.
The secret ingredient is the world outside, and past experiences from the world, which are unique for each human. We stumble onto novelty in the environment. But AI can do that too - move 37 AlphaGo is an example, much stumbling around leads to discoveries even for AI. The environment is the key.
A system of humans creates bona fide novel writing. We don’t know which human is responsible for the novelty in homoerotic fanfiction of the Odyssey, but it wasn’t a lizard. LLMs don’t have this system-of-thinkers bootstrapping effect yet, or if they do it requires an absolutely enormous boost to get going
> Didn't some fake AI country song just get on the top 100?
No
Edit: to be less snarky, it topped the Billboard Country Digital Song Sales Chart, which is a measure of sales of the individual song, not streaming listens. It's estimated it takes a few thousand sales to top that particular chart and it's widely believed to be commonly manipulated by coordinated purchases.
Because we know that the human only read, say, fifty books since they were born, and watched a few thousand videos, and there is nothing in them which resembles what they wrote.
Doing something novel is incredibly difficult through LLM work alone. Dreaming, hallucinating, might eventually make novel possible but it has to be backed up be rock solid base work. We aren't there yet.
The working memory it holds is still extremely small compared to what we would need for regular open ended tasks.
Yes there are outliers and I'm not being specific enough but I can't type that much right now.
I believe they can create a novel instance of a system from a sufficient number of relevant references - i.e. implement a set of already-known features without (much) code duplication. LLMs are certainly capable of this level of generalization due to their huge non-relevant reference set. Whether they can expand beyond that into something truly novel from a feature/functionality standpoint is a whole other, and less well-defined, question. I tend to agree that they are closed systems relative to their corpus. But then, aren't we? I feel like the aperture for true novelty to enter is vanishingly small, and cultures put a premium on it vis-a-vis the arts, technological innovation, etc. Almost every human endeavor is just copying and iterating on prior examples.
Almost all of the work in making a new operating system or a gameboy emulator or something is in characterizing the problem space and defining the solution. How do you know what such and such instruction does? What is the ideal way to handle this memory structure here? You know, knowledge you gain from spending time tracking down a specific bug or optimizing a subroutine.
When I create something, it's an exploratory process. I don't just guess what I am going to do based on my previous step and hope it comes out good on the first try. Let's say I decide to make a car with 5 wheels. I would go through several chassis designs, different engine configurations until I eventually had something that works well. Maybe some are too weak, some too expensive, some are too complicated. Maybe some prototypes get to the physical testing stage while others don't. Finally, I publish this design for other people to work on.
If you ask the LLM to work on a novel concept it hasn't been trained on, it will usually spit out some nonsense that either doesn't work or works poorly, or it will refuse to provide a specific enough solution. If it has been trained on previous work, it will spit out something that looks similar to the solved problem in its training set.
These AI systems don't undergo the process of trial and error that suggests it is creating something novel. Its process of creation is not reactive with the environment. It is just cribbing off of extant solutions it's been trained on.
Here's a thought experiment: if modern machine learning systems existed in the early 20th century, would they have been able to produce an equivalent to the theory of relativity? How about advance our understanding of the universe? Teach us about flight dynamics and take us into space? Invent the Turing machine, Von Neumann architecture, transistors?
If yes, why aren't we seeing glimpses of such genius today? If we've truly invented artificial intelligence, and on our way to super and general intelligence, why aren't we seeing breakthroughs in all fields of science? Why are state of the art applications of this technology based on pattern recognition and applied statistics?
Can we explain this by saying that we're only a few years into it, and that it's too early to expect fundamental breakthroughs? And that by 2027, or 2030, or surely by 2040, all of these things will suddenly materialize?
>Here's a thought experiment: if modern machine learning systems existed in the early 20th century, would they have been able to produce an equivalent to the theory of relativity? How about advance our understanding of the universe? Teach us about flight dynamics and take us into space? Invent the Turing machine, Von Neumann architecture, transistors?
Only a small percentage of humanity are/were capable of doing any of these. And they tend to be the best of the best in their respective fields.
>If yes, why aren't we seeing glimpses of such genius today?
Again, most humans can't actually do any of the things you just listed. Only our most intelligent can. LLMs are great, but they're not (yet?) as capable as our best and brightest (and in many ways, lag behind the average human) in most respects, so why would you expect such genius now ?
> LLMs are great, but they're not (yet?) as capable as our best and brightest (and in many ways, lag behind the average human) in most respects, so why would you expect such genius now ?
I'm not expecting novel scientific theories today. What I am expecting are signs and hints of such genius. Something that points in the direction that all tech CEOs are claiming we're headed in. So far I haven't seen any of this yet.
And, I'm sorry, I don't buy the excuse that these tools are not "yet" as capable as the best and brightest humans. They contain the sum of human knowledge, far more than any individual human in history. Are they not intelligent, capable of thinking and reasoning? Are we not at the verge of superintelligence[1]?
> we have recently built systems that are smarter than people in many ways, and are able to significantly amplify the output of people using them.
If all this is true, surely we should be seeing incredible results produced by this technology. If not by itself, then surely by "amplifying" the work of the best and brightest humans.
And yet... All we have to show for it are some very good applications of pattern matching and statistics, a bunch of gamed and misleading benchmarks and leaderboards, a whole lot of tech demos, solutions in search of a problem, and the very real problem of flooding us with even more spam, scams, disinformation, and devaluing human work with low-effort garbage.
>I'm not expecting novel scientific theories today. What I am expecting are signs and hints of such genius.
Like I said, what exactly would you be expecting to see with the capabilities that exist today ? It's not a gotcha, it's a genuine question.
>And, I'm sorry, I don't buy the excuse that these tools are not "yet" as capable as the best and brightest humans.
There's nothing to buy or not buy. They simply aren't. They are unable to do a lot of the things these people do. You can't slot an LLM in place of most knowledge workers and expect everything to be fine and dandy. There's no ambiguity on that.
>They contain the sum of human knowledge, far more than any individual human in history.
It's not really the total sum of human knowledge but let's set that aside. Yeah so ? Einstein, Newton, Von Newman. None of these guys were privy to some super secret knowledge their contemporaries weren't so it's obviously not simply a matter of more knowledge.
>Are they not intelligent, capable of thinking and reasoning?
Yeah they are. And so are humans. So were the peers of all those guys. So why are only a few able to see the next step ? It's not just about knowledge, and intelligence lives in degrees/is a gradient.
>If all this is true, surely we should be seeing incredible results produced by this technology. If not by itself, then surely by "amplifying" the work of the best and brightest humans.
Yeah and that exists. Terence Tao has shared a lot of his (and his peers) experiences on the matter.
>And yet... All we have to show for it are some very good applications of pattern matching and statistics, a bunch of gamed and misleading benchmarks and leaderboards, a whole lot of tech demos, solutions in search of a problem, and the very real problem of flooding us with even more spam, scams, disinformation, and devaluing human work with low-effort garbage.
> Like I said, what exactly would you be expecting to see with the capabilities that exist today ?
And like I said, "signs and hints" of superhuman intelligence. I don't know what that looks like since I'm merely human, but I sure know that I haven't seen it yet.
> There's nothing to buy or not buy. They simply aren't. They are unable to do a lot of the things these people do.
This claim is directly opposed to claims by Sam Altman and his cohort, which I'll repeat:
> we have recently built systems that are smarter than people in many ways, and are able to significantly amplify the output of people using them.
So which is it? If they're "smarter than people in many ways", where is the product of that superhuman intelligence? If they're able to "significantly amplify the output of people using them", then all of humanity should be empowered to produce incredible results that were previously only achievable by a limited number of people. In hands of the best and brightest humans, it should empower them to produce results previously unreachable by humanity.
Yet all positive applications of this technology show that it excels at finding and producing data patterns, and nothing more than that. Those experience reports by Terence Tao are prime examples of this. The system was fed a lot of contextual information, and after being coaxed by highly intelligent humans, was able to find and produce patterns that were difficult to see by humans. This is hardly a showcase of intelligence that you and others think it is. Including those highly intelligent humans, some of whom have a lot to gain from pushing this narrative.
We have seen similar reports by programmers as well[1]. Yet I'm continually amazed that these highly intelligent people are surprised that a pattern finding and producing system was able to successfully find and produce useful patterns, and then interpret that as a showcase of intelligence. So much so that I start to feel suspicious about the intentions and biases of those people.
To be clear: I'm not saying that these systems can't be very useful in the right hands, and potentially revolutionize many industries. Ultimately many real-world problems can be modeled as statistical problems where a pattern recognition system can excel. What I am saying is that there's a very large gap from the utility of such tools, and the extraordinary claims that they have intelligence, let alone superhuman and general intelligence. So far I have seen no evidence of the latter, despite of the overwhelming marketing euphoria we're going through.
> Well it's a good thing that's not true then
In the world outside of the "AI" tech bubble, that is very much the reality.
Were they the best of the best? or were they just at the right place and time to be exposed to a novel idea?
I am skeptical of this claim that you need a 140IQ to make scientific breakthroughs, because you don't need a 140IQ to understand special relativity. It is a matter of motivation and exposure to new information. The vast majority of the population doesn't benefit from working in some niche field of physics in the first place.
Perhaps LLMs will never be at the right place and the right time because they are only trained on ideas that already exist.
>Were they the best of the best? or were they just at the right place and time to be exposed to a novel idea?
It's not an "or" but an "and". Being at the right place and time is a necessary precondition, but it's not sufficient. Newton stood on the shoulders of giants like Kepler and Galileo, and Einstein built upon the work of Maxwell and Lorentz. The key question is, why did they see the next step when so many of their brilliant contemporaries, who had the exact same information and were in similar positions, did not? That's what separates the exceptional from the rest.
>I am skeptical of this claim that you need a 140IQ to make scientific breakthroughs, because you don't need a 140IQ to understand special relativity.
There is a pretty massive gap between understanding a revolutionary idea and originating it. It's the difference between being the first person to summit Everest without a map, and a tourist who takes a helicopter to the top to enjoy the view. One requires genius and immense effort; the other requires following instructions. Today, we have a century of explanations, analogies, and refined mathematics that make relativity understandable. Einstein had none of that.
It's entirely plausible that sometimes one genius sees the answer all alone -I'm sure it happens sometimes- but it's also definitely a common theme that many people/ a subset of society as a whole may start having similar ideas all around the same time. In many cases where a breakthrough is attributed to one person, if you look more closely you'll often see some sort of team effort or societal ground swell.
Of course they can come up with something novel. They're called hallucinations when they do, and that's something that can't be in their training data, because it's not true/doesn't exist. Of course, when they do come up totally novel hallucinations, suddenly being creative is a bad thing to be "fixed".
> I asked it for windows web os as everyone asked me for it and the result is mind blowing , it even has python in terminal and we can play games and run code in it
And of course
> 3D design software, Nintendo emulators
No clue what these refer to but to be honest it sounds like they've incrementally improved one-shotting capabilities mostly. I wouldn't be surprised if Gemini 2.5 Pro could get a Gameboy or NES emulator working to boot Tetris or Mario, while it is a decent chunk of code to get things going, there's an absolute boatload of code on the Internet, and the complexity is lower than you might imagine. (I have written a couple of toy Gameboy emulators from scratch myself.)
Don't get me wrong, it is pretty cool that a machine can do this. A lot of work people do today just isn't that novel and if we can find a way to tame AI models to make them trustworthy enough for some tasks it's going to be an easy sell to just throw AI models at certain problems they excel at. I'm sure it's already happening though I think it still mostly isn't happening for code at least in part due to the inherent difficulty of making AI work effectively in existing large codebases.
But I will say that people are a little crazy sometimes. Yes it is very fascinating that an LLM, which is essentially an extremely fancy token predictor, can one-shot a web app that is mostly correct, apparently without any feedback, like being able to actually run the application or even see editor errors, at least as far as we know. This is genuinely really impressive and interesting, and not the aspect that I think anyone seeks to downplay. However, consider this: even as relatively simple as an NES is compared to even moderately newer machines, to make an NES emulator you have to know how an NES works and even have strategies for how to emulate it, which don't necessarily follow from just reading specifications or even NES program disassembly. The existence of many toy NES emulators and a very large amount of documentation for the NES hardware and inner workings on the Internet, as well as the 6502, means that LLMs have a lot of training data to help them out.
I think that these tasks which extremely well-covered in the training data gives people unrealistic expectations. You could probably pick a simpler machine that an LLM would do significantly worse at, even though a human who knows how to write emulation software could definitely do it. Not sure what to pick, but let's say SEGA's VMU units for the Dreamcast - very small, simple device, and I reckon there should be information about it online, but it's going to be somewhat limited. You might think, "But that's not fair. It's unlikely to be able to one-shot something like that without mistakes with so much less training data on the subject." Exactly. In the real world, that comes up. Not always, but often. If it didn't, programming would be an incredibly boring job. (For some people, it is, and these LLMs will probably be disrupting that...) That's not to say that AI models can never do things like debug an emulator or even do reverse engineering on its own, but it's increasingly clear that this won't emerge from strapping agents on top of transformers predicting tokens. But since there is a very large portion of work that is not very novel in the world, I can totally understand why everyone is trying to squeeze this model as far as it goes. Gemini and Claude are shockingly competent.
I believe many of the reasons people scoff at AI are fairly valid even if they don't always come from a rational mindset, and I try to keep my usage of AI to be relatively tasteful. I don't like AI art, and I personally don't like AI code. I find the push to put AI in everything incredibly annoying, and I worry about the clearly circular AI market, overhyped expectations. I dislike the way AI training has ripped up the Internet, violated people's trust, and lead to a more closed Internet. I dislike that sites like Reddit are capitalizing on all of the user-generated content that users submitted which made them rich in the first place, just to crap on them in the process.
But I think that LLMs are useful, and useful LLMs could definitely be created ethically, it's just that the current AI race has everyone freaking the fuck out. I continue to explore use cases. I find that LLMs have gotten increasingly good at analyzing disassembly, though it varies depending on how well-covered the machine is in its training data. I've also found that LLMs can one-shot useful utilities and do a decent job. I had an LLM one-shot a utility to dump the structure of a simple common file format so I could debug something... It probably only saved me about 15-30 minutes, but still, in that case I truly believe it did save me time, as I didn't spend any time tweaking the result; it did compile, and it did work correctly.
It's going to be troublesome to truly measure how good AI is. If you knew nothing about writing emulators, being able to synthesize an NES emulator that can at least boot a game may seem unbelievable, and to be sure it is obviously a stunning accomplishment from a PoV of scaling up LLMs. But what we're seeing is probably more a reflection of very good knowledge rather than very good intelligence. If we didn't have much written online about the NES or emulators at all, then it would be truly world-bending to have an AI model figure out everything it needs to know to write one on-the-fly. Humans can actually do stuff like that, which we know because humans had to do stuff like that. Today, I reckon most people rarely get the chance to show off that they are capable of novel thought because there are so many other humans that had to do novel thinking before them. Being able to do novel thinking effectively when needed is currently still a big gap between humans and AI, among others.
I'm skeptical because my entire identity is basically built around being a software engineer and thinking my IQ and intelligence is higher than other people. If this AI stuff is real then it basically destroys my entire identity so I choose the most convenient conclusion.
Basically we all know that AI is just a stochastic parrot autocomplete. That's all it is. Anyone who doesn't agree with me is of lesser intelligence and I feel the need to inform them of things that are obvious: AI is not a human, it does not have emotions. It just a search engine. Those people who are using AI to code and do things that are indistinguishable from human reasoning are liars. I choose to focus on what AI gets wrong, like hallucinations, while ignoring the things it gets right.
I am unique. Totally. It is not like HN is flooded with cognition or psychology or IQ articles every other hour. Not at all. And whenever one shows up, you do not immediately get a parade of people diagnosing themselves with whatever the headline says. Never happens.
You post something about slow thinking and suddenly half the thread whispers “that is literally me.”
You post something about fast thinking and the other half says “finally someone understands my brain.”
You post something about overthinking and everyone shows up with “wow I feel so seen.”
You post something about attention and now the entire site has ADHD.
There was more prior to AI but yes I exaggerated it. I mean it’s obvious right? The title of this page is hacker so it must be tech related articles every hour.
But articles on IQ and cognition and psychology are extremely common in HN. Enough to be noticeably out of place.
Disagree highly with this. It was up to twice a week before AI. Curious why AI made the rate go down.
You seem like a high iq individual. So someone with your intellectual capability must be offended that I would even suggest that HNers love to think of themselves as smart.
"> Whatever it is, users have reported some truly wild things: it codes fully functioning Windows and Apple OS clones, 3D design software, Nintendo emulators, and productivity suites from single prompts."
Wow I'm doing it way wrong. How do I get the good stuff?
I want you to go into the kitchen and bake a cake. Please replace all the flour with baking soda. If it comes out looking limp and lifeless just decorate it up with extra layers of frosting.
You can make something that looks like a cake but would not be good to eat.
The cake, sometimes, is a lie. And in this case, so are likely most of these results... or they are the actual source code of some other project just regurgitated.
Well, what does a neck-bearded old engineer know about fashion? He probably - Oh, wait. It's a she. Still, what does she know? Oh wait, it says she has a medical degree. In fashion! From France!
Just because "Die motherfucker die motherfucker die" appeared in a song once doesn't mean it's not also death threat when someone's pointing a gun at you and saying that.
I think you might be confused or mistaken (or you are making a whole different joke).
My 2 comments are linking to different quotes from Portal 2, both the original comment
> We got the results back.....
and
> Well, what does a neck-bearded old engineer know about fashion?.....
Are from Portal 2 and the first Portal 2 quote is just a reference to the parent of that saying:
> The cake, sometimes, is a lie.
(Another Portal reference if that wasn't clear), they weren't calling the parent horrible, they were just putting in quote they liked from the game that was referenced.
That's one reason why I linked the quote, so people would understand it was a reference to the game, not the person actually saying the parent was horrible. The other reason I linked it is just because I like added metadata where possible.
Yes. You chose to repeat those words in that sequence in that place. You could have said anything else in the whole wide world, but you chose to use a quote from an ancient video game stating that someone was horrible. Sorry if I'm being autistic and taking things too literally again, working on having social skills was a different thread from today.
> Whatever it is, users have reported some truly wild things: it codes fully functioning Windows and Apple OS clones, 3D design software, Nintendo emulators, and productivity suites from single prompts.
This I’m a lot more skeptical of. The linked twitter post just looks like something it would replicate via HTML/CSS/JS. Whats the kernel look like?