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More nuclear energy means less mining (thebreakthrough.org)
49 points by rustoo 40 days ago | hide | past | favorite | 93 comments



Conclusion is reached by unreasonably giving PV a 25-year life, but giving nuclear an 80-year service life and 92% capacity factor.


That's a great catch ! Thanks for this. For anyone wondering, 25 years is pretty common as a baseline for PV [1] but a good amount of them should be able to go for longer, say at least 30 years. As a comparison, the average nuclear power plant in France is 37 years old, and the french authority considers obvious a 50 year life expectancy, and 60 is being floated [2], but no idea where they got 80 from probably from the US extensions being floated [3] — 92% capacity factor are official measurements though, it's not unrealistic [4]

[1] : https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/how-to-make-s...

[2] : https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profil...

[3]: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=228&t=3#:~:text=Be....

[4]: https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#....


And it's not like solar panels stop working at 25 years. The biggest reason to replace solar panels at 20 years or so is that new panels are so much better than old ones. If technological process stopped we'd keep panels for longer.


According to NREL field experiments, most panels are on-track to exceed their warranted output after 30 years. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/pip.3615


One aspects to consider I think could be damage from external sources. Like freak hail storms that could be more common. If these sort of events regularly destroy panels with other accidents like fires due to failing installations average age could drop even if some panels are still functional.

Outside most extreme events nuclear plants in general are repaired if some component fails.


A freak hailstorm could take an entire solar farm out, but otherwise they are pretty resilient. There are pictures of Ukrainian solar installations that continue operating after missile strikes. The panels that got hit stop working, but the rest keep supplying power.


Solar also seems to be making leaps.

Folk in my area replaced panels on their 15yr old install. I didn't get hard metrics from them but, they said it's worth it. Got some state provided rebate too.


We ALSO need nuclear to achieve the plan ending fossil fuels usage BUT nuclear do not means just build an NPP and mine uranium, it al means exaust disposal and also mean a spread and distributed energy grid as we need today, something we will probably be unable to maintain in a changing world.

Solar on contrary means "just" install some panels and batteries with relevant inverters and you have energy, at least a bit for a potentially inconstant time. p.v. + storage means quickness and small distributed scale, nuclear means slow and big. Here the issue:

- we need MUCH MORE nuclear, but it took some decades to build it

- we need to being able to adapt in a changing world where populations will move en masse and keep moving for a little while, with wars and so on

Long story short we might be late for nuclear, at least in the current state of available tech today (small reactors are a promise, but economically are a failure today) and we are too far from good enough energy storage for renewables.


Interesting article. Turning it upside down, one could argue that anything but coal would literally save the planet. Fingers crossed.


Less mining on getting the uranium?

Or less mining on getting the uranium plus digging the nuclear waste into an intermediate storage, plus digging it from the indermediate storage that‘s been recently flooded, plus throwing it somewhere else, and so on, for the next 100k years?


Flooding is considered when designing nuclear storage, so water carrying contaminants away is no longer an issue.


We got quite some problems at the Asse, former salt mine. with water leaking in in unconsidered ways and amounts.


Why bury useful fuel?


Might want to read up on what’s entailed in actually using that “useful fuel”

https://www.funraniumlabs.com/2024/04/choose-your-own-radiat...


MSRs should be able to burn a higher fraction of the fuel at least. Did any design move forward?


There are tens if not hundreds of MSR designs. Here's a useful report published by the International Atomic Energy Agency on the status of MSR in the world [1].

There are two types of reactors that hold the promise to burn a higher fraction of the fuel: thorium based thermal reactors and uranium fast reactors. Many such reactors are MSRs, but so are other reactors. Honestly, you can think of MSR as an orthogonal dimension.

In any case, to answer your question about which designs moved forward. You can think of a design moving forward if the company that promotes that design has applied for NRC approval, and how far they are in the approval process. Here's the page where you can find these details [2]. There are 12 companies listed there. Any north-american company that is not listed there, you can think of their design as "pie-in-the-sky". Among the 12 companies, there are 3 molten salt reactor designs. One is in a reasonably advanced stage (the Kairos-Hermes), but that is a classical MSR: it uses uranium and thermal neutrons, so there are no ambitions to breed new fuel or anything. That's good, you want a design to be as conservative as possible if it were to get an NRC approval. The Terrestrial Energy design is also thermal, the only fast MSR is Terrapower's Molten Chloride Fast Reactor design. However, Terrapower is in a much more advanced stage with its Natrium reactor, its MSR is basically on the back burner. My guess is we won't hear any news about this design for at least 10 years.

However, the Natrium design of Terrapower has some promise, and quite solid funding. It is a sodium-cooled fast reactor. If it succeeds, such designs can burn U-238, and that is somewhat of a game-changer.

[1] https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/STI-DOC-010-4...

[2]https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/advanced/who-were-...


Is the amount of mining to be done actually a serious concern of any real policymaker?

This seems like a nitty-gritty detail argument between, as the article describes them, “traditional” and “pragmatic” environmentalists. Does it matter who wins? Does either have the bribe money to challenge petrochemical companies?

As far as I’ve heard, the main obstacle to overcome for nuclear power is that the permitting process is too slow, because the public is irrationally frightened of the stuff. On one hand this is not a fair problem for nuclear power. On the other, unfortunately, the uninformed general public is making all the decisions, not people who care about % differences in quantities of rocks mined.


That’s one of the problems but not the only problems.

Plants that are completed on time and under budget are rare and they also suck up billions if not tens of billions of dollars. The amount of entities with that kind of investment power is very small, and only a few of those are interested in nuclear power because of the delays and cost overruns.

Small modular reactors are supposed to fix at least the “tens of billions of dollars” problem but there aren’t any working examples, and the closest one I am aware of (NuScale) pulled the plug on its demonstration project, so the benefits of SMR remain theoretical.

Compare that to a solar or wind project where individual units are small so it’s easy to scale up, scale down, and iterate through economies of scale.


It would make sense for an oil company to buy SMR IP just to bury it.


> Is the amount of mining to be done actually a serious concern of any real policymaker?

Mines are job providers, so at least some policymakers are actively opposed to reducing it.


Manufacturing and installing heat pumps, solar panels, etc. could be a huge source of blue collar jobs too, but it isn't just about the jobs, is it?


right, I'm 100% on board with that, but there's a sizeable population of voters whose jobs would be disrupted that are very against it, so their representatives like Manchin are against it.


And they are attached to those particular jobs unfortunately.

I don’t get it at all. I mean, who would want to work in a coal mine? I’d think the change of coal mine worker to solar panel maintainence would be a massive QoL improvement. Go around outside. Get some sun and fresh air.

But I guess we can’t tell people how they want to work.


The things that replace the mines provide jobs too.

What if we compare the count, wage and type of labor?

It's not like one has jobs and the other has zero.


This looks like a straw man to me. I’ve never heard opponents of nuclear power claiming that mining uranium ore would lead to less mining than renewable energy sources.

The arguments usually brought up are the consequences of accidents, the lack of long term solutions to nuclear waste, it’s too slow to build (we need to reduce our carbon footprint now, not in 15 years), and that it is too expensive to compete with sun and wind.


Nuclear energy is just being used as a carrot by fossil fuel companies. They don’t want renewables so they’re dangling an unrealistic option.


Nuclear-happy France is burning way less fossil fuels than anti-nuclear Germany. If I'm in Germany and I want fossil fuel companies to make more money, I'll fund anti-nuclear protests.


Why would you oppose a decade long project you could upset at any time which ends up requiring short term energy planning? I think you meant protests in France.


Yes, I can believe that. Anyone who tries to say "let's wait for nuclear and not deploy solar/wind" is not rational, unless driven by the idea to sell more fossil fuels.

My personal position - let's allow building both; nuclear and solar/wind are complementary, not exclusive; but the government funding should mostly go to solar/wind at the moment, as they are the fastest & cheapest way to reduce CO2 emissions in the places, where these resources are available. And there are a lot of places like that.


> Anyone who tries to say "let's wait for nuclear and not deploy solar/wind" is

...is being obstructionist and deceptive. Nuclear is already a thing.


This is happening right now in Australia.

Conservative opposition are pushing heavily for nuclear energy in a country that has more access to renewables than almost any other.

And what happens is that the arguments over why you need it, where the reactors would be placed etc. are causing doubts from investors that long term, bi-partisan support for renewables exists. And investors need stability to invest.

It's an insidious plan that is actually working.


Why would consensus against renewables work? Renewables work from pretty small-scale all the way up to industrial deployments (well, not in Alaska/Siberia but in Australia ...)

So consensus shouldn't matter because if Joe the hairdresser or Jane the mechanic decide they, personally, want to do renewables, they can. Just by themselves. Hell, in most Australian cities ... I bet it would work in anything but the CBD.


We are talking about major renewable projects not small scale solar panels on your roof.

Even small scale needs stability in government support because you need to invest in the grid and energy storage to handle the excess in power generated by solar panels during the day.


You don’t need to invest in the grid for that. You can use batteries. There are chemistries that work really well for large building batteries.


"The grid" is literally the thing that joins battery parks (eg: the massive one in Adelaide South Australia) to rooftop providers, wind farms, household and commercial electricity consumers

"Investing in the grid" means expanding capacity in order to meet increased electricity demands as electric vehicles replace fosil fuel vehicles and increasing switching and grid intelligence to better handle a more distributed supply and demand.

More solar + more batteries and thermal storage + better grid are all things that grow hand in hand.

Of course investment in the grid is required to meet large scale population demands.


Yes you can use batteries.

But you can also invest in the grid and have excess energy shifted to other regions that can make use of it.


You could also just waste the power. Why not?


It might be cheaper to waste it than to reclaim it, if integrating that source to the grid is too expensive. When generation significantly exceeds demand, that scenario will happen.


Small-scale solar and wind is relatively inefficient and expensive when compared with large deployments.

One thing solar excels for is providing shade and reducing water loss from the soil. Australia might reclaim some land that way.


Renewables still need fossil fuel generators as a backstop as battery technology still isn’t good enough to meet the full electric demand when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing. Nuclear fills this need as an always available electricity source cheaper than fossil fuels without the carbon pollution.


Nuclear in current designs doesn’t really fill this need because it can’t be economically spun up and down to match renewables’ down-periods. Current designs allow some load following but only a very limited amount, and the capital costs are still so high that it doesn’t pay to run the unit at partial output. Maybe someone will find a design (SMRs possibly) that changes this, but it will take at least a decade or two to get deployed and then it will be in competition with battery tech that exists in 10-20 years, which will probably eat all the low-hanging profitable use-cases.


Exxon did this with a carbon tax in the US. Here is a quote of an exxon lobbyist bragging about it:

"Nobody is going to propose a tax on all Americans and the cynical side of me says, yeah, we kind of know that but it gives us a talking point that we can say, well what is ExxonMobil for? Well, we’re for a carbon tax,"

Source: https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2021/06/30/exxon-climate-ch...


Weird. Would it not work? (If there was actually any support for it) I'm for a carbon tax, or renewables, or nuclear, or anything at all that works.


By itself a carbon tax in the US would be extremely regressive as the vast majority of poor people here still need to drive to work, and they would immediately see the price increase at the pump.

It would have to be offset with some kind of tax rebate, but it’s harder to explain a more complex program like traffic to the voters.


They'd get it completely after the first week, if you administered it correctly. The right way to do a motor fuel tax is to fully refund it per capita, frequently. No means tests or any shit like that, just mail checks on Friday.


Why aren't the fossil fuel companies moving to renewables and nuclear themselves? Wouldn't it make better long-term business sense? They can then keep selling fossil fuels as long as they have a market to sell them in, but if the market dries up due to regulations — no worries.

I might have a naive view of this but a dual strategy would seem to make more business sense. I mean — every dollar invested in lobbying for fossil fuels seems to have a higher expected value of money if it was spent on expanding renewable and nuclear operations.


For the simple fact that even if it's true that renewables are cheaper than oil, it's still a much higher investment to build a renewable plant and hire people who know how to work it than it is to continue existing operations with existing people.

Edit: In addition, if the environmentalits were to "win", that would turn essentially the entirety of these companies' existing capital into 0 value. So not lobbying to stop that is extremely dangerous.


>it's still a much higher investment to build a renewable plant and hire people who know how to work it than it is to continue existing operations with existing people.

But someone is still doing that investment and will eventually reap the returns, so it still seems short sighted for existing energy companies not to try and outcompete them.

>that would turn essentially the entirety of these companies' existing capital into 0 value.

Honestly, I'd be kind of happy if these companies invested in renewables (even with government subsidies) and were lobbying the government to buy back the fossil fuel infrastructure that isn't needed anymore...


That is the most ridiculously inverted truth I’ve ever seen regarding nuclear. This is article talks about the petrochemical industry’s long history of opposition to nuclear but you can find a lot of other information just by googling it.

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/V-Gloves-are-off-in-fossi...


Fossil fuel companies best bet right now is to focus on natural gas and oil, to be used in thermal power stations. When power prices fluctuating, they can get more of the money from customers using less fuel, hitting the grid when supply is at the lowest point.

To help this they can get governments to pay subsidies for ongoing operations in the name of grid stability. The plants can also be used in theory with bio gas, so subsidies for construction is also on the table.

In Europe, natural gas even got declared as being green and the energy of choice to stop climate change. They also managed to get a bunch of exceptions added regarding oil, especially when used in industry and shipping. Coal was really the only thing fossil fuel companies needed to sacrifice in order to have a profitable future.


How does a switch to nuclear help fossil fuel companies?


Pray tell, what is "unrealistic" about nuclear energy as an alternative?

There are only 436 nuclear reactors in the world (for comparisons sake, there are more than 2400 coal power plants worldwide, and the US alone have more than 980 natural-gas power stations (2022).

And yet this small number of nuclear reactors produces 10% of global electricity.


Nuclear energy has a levelized cost of energy that is about 5-10x more expensive than utility solar, with solar expected to continue becoming exponentially cheaper


And? Solar cannot do it, it's as simple as that, so the cost is irrelevant.

> becoming exponentially cheaper

"Exponentially" is very unlikely. It may become somewhat cheaper, at first, if supply increases. Which btw. is also true for nuclear power.

But then what? We cannot power the world with solar alone, for the simple reason that we cannot store that much energy during the dark hours. Hydro storage is geographically limited, and batteries, well, let's just say the entire world output of Lithium over the last 3 decades didn't make enough to even store the electricity the US alone requires in a single day. And that is before be electrify further.

Yes, we should build more solar. There is no reason to have roofs not covered in panels. But all solar can do, is help. It is not the solution to our energy demands.


> Exponentially" is very unlikely. It may become somewhat cheaper, at first, if supply increases. Which btw. is also true for nuclear power.

Not “at first” but demonstrably over time and ongoing. Yes it will cease eventually but it seems like that’s not near.

> But then what? We cannot power the world with solar alone, for the simple reason that we cannot store that much energy during the dark hours. Hydro storage is geographically limited, and batteries, well, let's just say the entire world output of Lithium over the last 3 decades didn't make enough to even store the electricity the US alone requires in a single day. And that is before be electrify further.

Powering the us on batteries for a full day is not a realistic goal. But batteries are already cost competitive and shuttering gas peaker plants.

> Yes, we should build more solar. There is no reason to have roofs not covered in panels. But all solar can do, is help. It is not the solution to our energy demands.

Rooftop solar is actually more expensive than nuclear actually. Or at least a year or two ago.

If you build a bunch of nuclear you will not be able to compete on price with cheap renewables during the day. But you can’t just turn a nuclear reactor on and off so you’ll have to still generate and operate at a loss. Which means to be profitable you have to raise prices to make up for it in the off hours. Which, in turn, makes you less competitive and makes it more commercially viable for batteries.

Tl;dr, market forces will punish you. Renewables and batteries and fossil fuels as backup are the clear winners


> But you can’t just turn a nuclear reactor on and off

No, but I can regulate its output up and down. You don't have to turn a reactor off entirely, its output can be regulated up and down without shutting down completely.

> and makes it more commercially viable for batteries.

The problem with batteries isn't commercial viability. The problem is physical availability. There simply isn't enough Li in the world to make Solar as powerful as it would need to be to stem a majority of our energy requirements, and as of now, we don't have another battery technology that would be suitable.

At a macro view, the whole thing isn't an economic question.

Here are the three facts:

1. We cannot continue with fossil fuel power as we did before (because climate change)

2. Solar isn't up to the task of taking (among other reasons because we don't have the storage required)

3. The worlds energy demands are increasing. Maybe it could be made to grow slower, but reversing it is unlikely

So, what options does that leave us with? Wind suffers from similar problems as Solar. Hydro is geographically limited, as is Tidal. Geothermal is likely too weak. Fusion power doesn't exist yet. And as cool as a Dyson-Swarm would be, that's even further away than Fusion.

So, what technology remains?


1) lithium mining is up 6x since 10 years ago. You shouldn’t assume the average over ten years is a good indicator about capacity to mine. Mining rates are growing quickly.

2) there are competing materials for new battery tech besides lithium

3) battery capacity deployed per year is growing exponentially

4) when you have large over supplies of energy you can pursue hydrogen. Green hydrogen should be at parity with grey hydrogen in less than a decade. Not cost competitive with just using fuels or batteries for utility scale, but slowly getting there.

5) commercial viability absolutely matters. Subsidizing an expensive source of energy rather than building more and more capacity for cheap energy is a bad strategy while using fossil fuels as a crutch in the interim is a bad strategy. Running a nuclear plant at low capacity craters its financial viability.


> Mining rates are growing quickly.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/electric-vehicles-wor...

> there are competing materials for new battery tech besides lithium

And which of those are mass-production ready and are being deployed? Maybe one day, one of them will. Until such time, this argument is about the situation as-is.

> when you have large over supplies of energy you can pursue hydrogen.

The over supply would need to be truly enormeous, because Hydrogen is a cryogenic gas. It needs to be pressurized and cooled, both of which requires a constant expenditure of energy which is lost as usable power. It also carries [safety risks][1], and is [infamously hard to keep under control][1].

> commercial viability absolutely matters.

Long term, preventing climate change matters more. Alot more.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_safety

[2]: https://gizmodo.com/nasa-hydrogen-leaks-sls-rocket-space-shu...


> And which of those are mass-production ready and are being deployed? Maybe one day, one of them will. Until such time, this argument is about the situation as-is.

Sodium ion batteries are doing just fine. The drawbacks are not significant. Lithium is simply cheap enough to be preferable at the moment and likely will continue to be.

> The over supply would need to be truly enormeous, because Hydrogen is a cryogenic gas.

It is. Negative energy prices at peak generation times are increasingly a thing.

> Long term, preventing climate change matters more. Alot more.

Having 5x more energy available to do useful work, per dollar, is going to enable a lot more… useful work. if you’re willing to increase the cost of energy by 5x, then you should probably also be willing to just raise the price of energy during off generation hours to try and align usage to generation and mitigate the battery necessity altogether. Because that would STILL be cheaper for customers than the high prices you’re introducing by suggesting we go for nuclear


> Sodium ion batteries are doing just fine.

Again, this discussion is about the as-is situation. If and when Na-ion enters mass production on a comparable scale, I will happily discuss it.

> Negative energy prices at peak generation times are increasingly a thing.

That does not indicate that we over-produce to a degree that would make H2 as a storage vector viable. Plus, alot of over-capacity has more to do with lagging infrastructure (e.g. Germany has enormeous problems getting SOlar power to where it is needed) than it has with actual net-overproduction.

> f you’re willing to increase the cost of energy

Again: Economic concerns lose lose long term to environmental and physical ones.


Sodium ion batteries are mass produced at a comparable scale today

Your complaint about hydrogen seems indefensible in light of industry forecasters all saying hydrogen is likely to grow pretty darn fast over the next two decades

> Again: Economic concerns lose lose long term to environmental and physical ones.

My dude, Economics is the allocation of scarce resources. The most efficient way per dollar to remove carbon from our systems is by definition the most efficient way to do so.

Given a fixed budget, choosing a less efficient method will result in removing carbon more slowly. Even if you want to say “fuck the budgets man”, those newly inflated budgets are still better off spent on the more efficient tools


> Sodium ion batteries are mass produced at a comparable scale today

Since we were talking about economic viability:

"The global Lithium-ion Battery Market in terms of revenue was estimated to be worth $56.8 billion in 2023 and is poised to reach $187.1 billion by 2032" [Source][1]

"The global sodium-ion battery market was valued at USD 0.5 billion in 2023, and is projected to reach USD 1.2 billion by 2028" [Source][2]

Please explain how a difference between 0.5bn and 56.8bn constitutes "comparable scale".

[1]: https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/lithium-ion...

[2]: https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/sodium-ion-...


Kinda running in circles here man.

1) they are mass produced which was your original point of contention

2) they are growing very fast

3) 1:100 is pretty comparable. Utility storage batteries are only commercially feasible within the past several years. Sodium batteries aren’t a great choice for EVs so those numbers aren’t apples to apples as we’ve largely been talking about utility scale power.

4) the biggest reason sodium is not growing even faster is because lithium is better and cheaply available in large supplies.

And so we are here again. If you have x billion dollars, and you want to remove the most carbon; you would very likely remove more carbon, faster, by building a battery plant of either variety than building a nuclear plant.

The limiting factor of our clean power right now is in fact just hooking it up to the transmission grid tbh


Plus, the new materials for battery tech could be as simple as "molten sand". We've really barely scratched the surface on grid scale storage.


When was the last nuclear plant built in California?

Edit: downvoting someone you disagree with is not cool. Go outside, touch some grass.


California is a bad example for nuclear, as it's the perfect spot for solar. On the opposite, Finland lacks sun, but enjoys their new reactor (even though, since it's another one-off project, it's over budget).


I don’t live in Finland. In fact, Finland’s population is half that of Michigan’s, so I’m sure they’d be fine with solar and wind as well. They already get a quarter of their power from hydro.


> I’m sure they’d be fine with solar

Sorry, your confidence betrays you here. Please, look up the altitude of Helsinki. In January they get 6 hours of sunlight per day and it's almost universally cloudy winter-time.

Nuclear & wind are better options for Finland and they pursue both ([1], [2], [3])

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Finland

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant

3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loviisa_Nuclear_Power_Plant


The Nordic countries are literally the only places in the world where solar isn't the best option by 2030:

https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2023/10/19/future-of-ener...


"Best" is relative to how you're measuring, and cheapest doesn't mean that's where you want to put all your investment. The cheapest option that can work for some small about of the time can be best by one measurement and not by another.

There are other problems with solar that make it beneficial to offset with other energy sources. For example, lack of ability to generate any energy for 50% of the year, and reduced efficiency depending on weather.

Wind has its own problems as well, but are map to somewhat different circumstances than solar, so is a good supplement for some of the power.

Nuclear has its own problems as well, but unlike wind and solar, many of those aren't inherent to the source, but to how we've developed methods to harness it and deal with produced byproduct (waste). I suspect a first principles approach to nuclear energy might eventually be a very useful source of energy. I think it would be beneficial if we still kept some nuclear around to keep developing it towards a better source. It does well to offset some of the requirements of other systems, which are limited by time, geography or climate.


latitude not altitude.

And Finland absolutely could provide energy to its entire population with renewables excluding nuclear. They haven't and that's their choice, but you cannot claim with any legitimacy that it's not possible because of latitude.


> latitude not altitude.

thanks!

> And Finland absolutely could provide energy to its entire population with renewables excluding nuclear. They haven't and that's their choice, but you cannot claim with any legitimacy that it's not possible because of latitude.

That was not my claim. I would appreciate if you re-read my comments in this thread.


Cool, but you cut off the sentence where it says “and wind”.


> Cool, but you cut off the sentence where it says “and wind”.

Because wind works for Finland and it's a good idea for them to invest in it (and they do). But putting solar & Finland together is nonsense.


Yeah, sure, lets take a technology where the main challenge is obstructionism by NIMBYs who bought in to too much FUD, and judge it by a state notorious for enabling NIMBYism.


Yeah they're trying to delay the decay of their valuation.

A few years ago went looking at producing hydrogen by electrolysis for ammonia production. There was the usual 'well maybe' stuff but nothing showing anyone was doing anything concrete. Few days ago checked a again and there are a bunch of corporate news items about building electrolysers and hydrogen storage to replace natural gas reformer units.

The problem the fossil fuel companies have is they can convince low information stupids that oil, gas, coal and nuclear are the only viable technologies. But they can't convince the accountants.


Yours seems like an unnecessarily cynical take. For sure oil companies try to green wash themselves with investment in green tech that seems too far fetched. Sure. But there are also many genuinely good intentioned people working on that green tech because they genuinely see a possible future application.

For that matter oil companies invested in battery tech as well. For the most part they just want to appear like they are doing something. But their green washing shouldn't discredit the green tech itself.


Oil companies know they are going to join the original oil suppliers, the dinosaurs, soon enough and they need to invest and build IP in renewables to be able to transition over to the green side.

Nobody wants to be the next Kodak.


The reason firms “become the next Kodak” is because they’re busy protecting their enormously profitable legacy business from competing technology. This can be actually rational, provided the people doing this sell or realize enough profit on their assets before the older business disappears.


I read an article where the author made a point that oil and gas companies aren't setup to compete in the renewables business. And they have the problem that companies that are already exist in that space.

When it comes to building out a deep water oil rig they have no competition. But when it comes to set up an offshore wind farm marine services companies have the experience, equipment, and are nimble.

Build solar panels? That's manufacturing and there is a whole other industry that makes commodity manufactured goods at scale. Batteries and solar panels are both extremely high volume commodity goods.


> But they can't convince the accountants.

Neither can "pure renewables" in many places. I acknowledge that this article is 10 years old but... https://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/nancy-pfotenhauer/2014/...:

> "For example, on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit."

I'm an electrical engineer and am personally mixed on wind and solar. I'm in a Canadian province that has fantastic solar and wind potential but doesn't have the geography for effective pumped hydro storage. Battery storage, currently, is so ridiculously badly priced compared to nuclear. For the same price you can get a battery plant with 8 hours of 300MW capacity, or a SMR with 18-24 months of capacity before scheduled downtime for refueling. Even if you're in the "nuclear always goes over budget" camp, that SMR would have to go dramatically over budget to cease to be cost competitive.

I'm quite convinced that in the medium term it's pretty much got to be wind + solar, hydro, natural gas, and nuclear as a mix. They're complementary! Wind and solar are great at providing "free" energy into the grid when they're producing. Hydro is great but there's only so much available for a given geography without having other negative environmental effects. Natural gas is good for handling peak capacity quickly for situations where the other sources can't ramp up quick enough. Nuclear's great for providing steady baseload.

During the winter my province only gets 8 hours of sunlight per day and it's often enough -40 outside. Right now the vast majority of our homes are heated with natural gas; on a per kWh hour on an annual basis the gas company sells 3x the energy that the electricity company sells. If we're going to drop our carbon emissions dramatically then we're going to need to convert to either electric heat or district heating (probably via massive geothermal plants, which we can get heat out of but the reserves aren't good enough for electricity generation). And if we do switch to electric heat we need to do so with zero fear that we're going to freeze when we have a prolonged -40 degree stretch of calm cold 8-hour days.


Citing an article from ten years ago on renewables is like citing an article from the 1800s. Go look at the cost and deployment curves for solar PV and wind. Make sure you focus on recent numbers: you’re out of date if your information is even a year old.


While I don't have any links handy, my understanding from doing some digging into this a few months ago is that currently off-shore wind is awesome and has about a 40% capacity factor. On-shore not so much.

As far as the battery capacity and pricing goes, that math was done using the Wikipedia pricing for Tesla Megapacks quite recently.

The vast majority of sources I've found for trying to actually compare prices typically involves levelized-cost-of-energy (LCOE), which as far as I can tell completely ignores the intermittency problem; that's where I did a dive into the battery storage prices and found them eye-wateringly bad.

I'm strongly not opposed to wind and solar; I'm just strongly suspicious of anyone who suggests that, in my climate and geography, we're capable of replacing all of our electricity generation and heating (currently natgas) with solar and wind without some form of baseload long-term backup. I prefer that baseload backup to be nuclear and not coal or natural gas, as is the current status quo here.

I did just do a relative cursory search to try to find some current numbers but the majority of articles had theses like "wind is struggling due to inflation and interest rates but is going to bounce back this year!" so that's... not super useful.


Battery prices have collapsed 60% in the last year. Tesla Megapacks from whenever you calculated them aren’t even close to competitive now. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/03/06/battery-prices-collap...


That's awesome but assuming that that means getting Tesla Megapacks at half the price (inverters and infrastructure would likely prevent a 60% reduction and it makes the math easier), you're now getting 16 hours at 300MW out of your batteries for the same price as a 300MW nuclear plant that runs 18-24 months before refuelling.


Quite the opposite, there's clear evidence that fossil fuel companies heavily supported anti-nuclear action groups. Because nuclear energy is just as much of a threat to their business as renewables are.


> Quite the opposite, there's clear evidence that fossil fuel companies heavily supported anti-nuclear action groups.

Fossil companies fund both camps. They are especially interested in closing-down existing nuclear plants, as it immediately creates a big market for them, but it's also useful to them to delay deploying new solar/wind capacity (and thus, funding the wait-for-new-nuclear or even wait-for-fusion campaigns)


If you keep it forever in R&D you can have it as a carrot and never as a competitor. Tons and tons of cash that could go into battery or panel factories. And because they have the media in their pocket they can easily turn the knob on favor or disfavor of nuclear power.

Solar is the solution now because America dithered and fumbled nuclear energy in the 60s - 80s. Now nuclear cannot be built because every estimate has been 1/10th the actual cost for plants built in this millennium. Glow rocks are dead - use fusion power from the sky.


They probably flipped 5-15 years ago. Before then nuclear was the biggest threat to fossil energy. Now solar is, and pro-nuclear is the best anti-solar.


They will bash anything that’s a viable competitor and promote anything that will take a long time to build momentum.

Then they’ll attack nuclear and, maybe, promote deep water thermal differential ammonia generators or geothermal sources.


Solar and wind are detrimental to the environment in their own respects, and will never generate enough energy to solve the problem :D


You need to back that up with numbers, because mine say otherwise. Ireland (of all places) has sizeable renewable running and solar roofs have government subsidies.


Sad that we have to waste so much time an energy on something that is fairly obvious




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