At least from my experience and from the suggestions from Nassim Taleb (e.g., past events/data != future outcome/data), we cannot reliably predict the future.
The only thing that is constant is, as someone a long time argued, is “change”.
Arguably, basic needs, and with that I mean existential needs, seem to be universal for most lifeforms: water, forms of energy (i.e., food, warmth), and the ability to maintain your system.
If something very bad hits the fan (no agriculture, no public farmland), you and me probably need to first learn how to make fire, how to purify water and how to catch fish.
Fishing without permission could lead you to jail, but in tough situations, the legal stuff might be not your main concern.
How much does it cost to get a permission? Can you afford it if you're homeless and no one is helping or giving you a job, a shelter? How are you going to get taxed and pay your government your state employees (e.g., police)?
Who will then pay police to enforce laws? Or who will protect your basic constitutional rights, if you cannot pay taxes to finance a judge? Or, more extremely, what if a lot of people will be out of a job overnight? What will the government and state people do then without this transaction? So, there's a lot of what ifs… We aren't there yet.
In other words: how can you take part in a fair society if there are no jobs available, especially if you're old, unlucky, or your skills aren't as useful anymore because of LLMs or possibly AGI?
Which means society does not need you, and perhaps would like to get rid of you.
The question is, will wealth (the ability to make transactions) still be relevant if AGI becomes a reality?
What kind of transactions can you make? Buy AGI systems powerful enough to fulfil all kinds of labor needs, buy farmland, buy wells or sources of clean water?
However, why should this be possible if some of us live in a democracy, even if there is a great influence from those with wealth?
Since I tend to be negative about things (i.e., I am biased), it's hard to say for sure what will happen.
Further, there might be a lot of things I have not considered (tunnel vision).
PS: the dollar has no intrinsic value, we give value to it.
So, I do not know what wealth means, if there is significantly less need for human labor.
Ultimately, if some of us can have “free slaves” (i.e., robots), then some of us arguably do not need to have wealth (the ability to make transactions). Only raw power/dominance and luck.
Regarding manual labor for most able-bodied ages, I think real income will increase for people even as automation kicks off more significantly. You already see this in the "trades" in HCOL areas, it's very expensive to get any work done on houses, and those jobs aren't going to be automated away for a very long time.
The only thing that is constant is, as someone a long time argued, is “change”. Arguably, basic needs, and with that I mean existential needs, seem to be universal for most lifeforms: water, forms of energy (i.e., food, warmth), and the ability to maintain your system.
If something very bad hits the fan (no agriculture, no public farmland), you and me probably need to first learn how to make fire, how to purify water and how to catch fish. Fishing without permission could lead you to jail, but in tough situations, the legal stuff might be not your main concern. How much does it cost to get a permission? Can you afford it if you're homeless and no one is helping or giving you a job, a shelter? How are you going to get taxed and pay your government your state employees (e.g., police)? Who will then pay police to enforce laws? Or who will protect your basic constitutional rights, if you cannot pay taxes to finance a judge? Or, more extremely, what if a lot of people will be out of a job overnight? What will the government and state people do then without this transaction? So, there's a lot of what ifs… We aren't there yet.
In other words: how can you take part in a fair society if there are no jobs available, especially if you're old, unlucky, or your skills aren't as useful anymore because of LLMs or possibly AGI? Which means society does not need you, and perhaps would like to get rid of you.
The question is, will wealth (the ability to make transactions) still be relevant if AGI becomes a reality? What kind of transactions can you make? Buy AGI systems powerful enough to fulfil all kinds of labor needs, buy farmland, buy wells or sources of clean water? However, why should this be possible if some of us live in a democracy, even if there is a great influence from those with wealth?
Since I tend to be negative about things (i.e., I am biased), it's hard to say for sure what will happen. Further, there might be a lot of things I have not considered (tunnel vision).
PS: the dollar has no intrinsic value, we give value to it. So, I do not know what wealth means, if there is significantly less need for human labor. Ultimately, if some of us can have “free slaves” (i.e., robots), then some of us arguably do not need to have wealth (the ability to make transactions). Only raw power/dominance and luck.