Do you expect recession or growth?
Do you expect escalation of the current war conflicts?
Do you expect the EU/US or the Chinese/Russian economy prevails?
China's economy crashed in the 60's US manufacturing saved them, but they failed to get enough money to build the middle class they need to support them long term. Russia failed in the late 80's and that lead to their gov collapse, and the graduates of the 80's were the last ones able to run their economy, and they are retiring now/soon without replacement, hence the Ukraine war. The last death throes. EU got too addicted to Russia oil in the 90's as Russia tried to save itself and we are seeing what happens with the reduced mfg in Germany. China makes more BMWs than Germany does. and Germany is their best economy. Everyone else was riding their coat tails, most will probably end up like Greece. Really the only thing that can stop the US is the reduced wages and loss of the middle class, because the middle class actually creates the velocity of money that the market runs on.
> Really the only thing that can stop the US is the reduced wages and loss of the middle class, because the middle class actually creates the velocity of money that the market runs on.
Political turmoil and "culture war" collateral damage is a genuine risk as well. If nothing else it's preventing us from enacting laws that prevent corporations from continuing to decimate the middle class (e.g. offshoring in software companies.)
Yup, that's why I included it in the examples. Look at that problem and what it has done to South Africa as well. They're too poor to even afford water.
If the government becomes unable to tax the rich you'll see the rich have the homeless and jobless locked up and either sold into private prisons as slave labor or given the gas chamber. An irony because while abortion is illegal, so is being born into poverty.
Somewhat similar to the dark ages with its aristocrats ruling over us.
Creating AGI needs powerful computers, which are costly. Independence from humans, like workers in chip factories, requires bootstrapping[1]. This leads to a scenario where a subset of humans serves their bosses, and bosses serve shareholders until AGI takes over. Those with money hold power, and if we aren't good “slaves” robots might take over. There's a chance of using prison labor, especially with the ease of getting jailed in the US for minor offenses. A cynic might say: why not change laws to make it easier to jail people? Might solve homelessness, and we get free labor that way.
Rising homelessness is likely. The only option for us “plebs” is to learn basic survival skills like making fire, catching fish, and purifying water and possibly fight each other so that those who rule over us be at ease:
“When two people quarrel, a third rejoices.”
We might have a “democracy” on paper, but it is clear to me that the people can influence politics with great leverage, if they have enough wealth at their disposal:
“Despite the seemingly strong empirical support in previous studies for theories of majoritarian democracy, our analyses suggest that majorities of the American public actually have little influence over the policies our government adopts. Americans do enjoy many features central to democratic governance, such as regular elections, freedom of speech and association, and a widespread (if still contested) franchise. But we believe that if policymaking is dominated by powerful business organizations and a small number of affluent Americans, then America’s claims to being a democratic society are seriously threatened.”[2]
Keep in mind though, we cannot predict the future, it might be worse, it might be better, it might be something we cannot even imagine (see Nassim Taleb).
Further, I seem to have pessimistic tendencies (biases), so keep that in mind too.
So, I hope that my pessimism is just futile and does not hold any water (not even a drop).
Reference:
1. “In general, bootstrapping usually refers to a self-starting process that is supposed to continue or grow without external input.”
[Source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootstrapping)
Infinite growth for its own sake is the ideology of the cancer cell, and it's not sustainable either; and all it takes is a solar flare to wipe out all our electronics, satellites, etc bringing us back into the dark ages. Maybe it's what we need. A great reset.
Growth. De-escalation of current conflicts and new conflicts arise. EU/US economy prevails. Change in China kicks off new growth and prosperity. Renewable electricity and batteries continue to take off and global GHG emissions fall.
What do you think about money and income? If people in the Western world get older, lose jobs, earn less money, and have fewer kids, who will buy those kinds of products? Maybe people in “third-world” countries (who might have enough young people)? How can those young people exchange their labor for money? Will an unskilled worker have enough wealth to buy such products?
What about governments? Will they make taxation higher (e.g., less wealth for you)?
Low and medium percentile earners will make a little more income inflation adjusted, high earners will earn even more. Discussions of inequality therefore continue as they have now. Automation starts kicking off in a more significant way and more than offsets declines in population growth.
At least from my experience and from the suggestions from Nassim Taleb (e.g., past events/data != future outcome/data), we cannot reliably predict the future.
The only thing that is constant is, as someone a long time argued, is “change”.
Arguably, basic needs, and with that I mean existential needs, seem to be universal for most lifeforms: water, forms of energy (i.e., food, warmth), and the ability to maintain your system.
If something very bad hits the fan (no agriculture, no public farmland), you and me probably need to first learn how to make fire, how to purify water and how to catch fish.
Fishing without permission could lead you to jail, but in tough situations, the legal stuff might be not your main concern.
How much does it cost to get a permission? Can you afford it if you're homeless and no one is helping or giving you a job, a shelter? How are you going to get taxed and pay your government your state employees (e.g., police)?
Who will then pay police to enforce laws? Or who will protect your basic constitutional rights, if you cannot pay taxes to finance a judge? Or, more extremely, what if a lot of people will be out of a job overnight? What will the government and state people do then without this transaction? So, there's a lot of what ifs… We aren't there yet.
In other words: how can you take part in a fair society if there are no jobs available, especially if you're old, unlucky, or your skills aren't as useful anymore because of LLMs or possibly AGI?
Which means society does not need you, and perhaps would like to get rid of you.
The question is, will wealth (the ability to make transactions) still be relevant if AGI becomes a reality?
What kind of transactions can you make? Buy AGI systems powerful enough to fulfil all kinds of labor needs, buy farmland, buy wells or sources of clean water?
However, why should this be possible if some of us live in a democracy, even if there is a great influence from those with wealth?
Since I tend to be negative about things (i.e., I am biased), it's hard to say for sure what will happen.
Further, there might be a lot of things I have not considered (tunnel vision).
PS: the dollar has no intrinsic value, we give value to it.
So, I do not know what wealth means, if there is significantly less need for human labor.
Ultimately, if some of us can have “free slaves” (i.e., robots), then some of us arguably do not need to have wealth (the ability to make transactions). Only raw power/dominance and luck.
Regarding manual labor for most able-bodied ages, I think real income will increase for people even as automation kicks off more significantly. You already see this in the "trades" in HCOL areas, it's very expensive to get any work done on houses, and those jobs aren't going to be automated away for a very long time.
