Y Co is more of a “moneyball” play than average, it’s not like under Sam’s tenure it was all about one big hit (not like the Softbank story).
Now there is OpenAI and that’s a super unusual case and luck is important in that one. The thing is they managed to get a lot of resources to train a very big model before anybody else did and woke up people to the possibility of LLMs but there just can’t be a GPT-5 which has 50x the parameters of GPT-4 and even if they was nobody could afford the cost to do inference with it.
They can’t afford to go forward the way they’ve gotten to where they have been, sure they can try to find a more efficient approach but everybody else is doing that and nobody else quite feels the same pressure to make a model that performs better and the same way GPT-4 performs so their first mover advantage could make them irrelevant unless they make the right moves and luck strikes a second time.
