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I think that's just business as usual for Russian intelligence agencies: deny that you're keeping close tabs on someone that you're obviously keeping close tabs on. The Russian gov't denying that they could possibly keep track of someone is such a ridiculous claim that it signals a gaslighting playbook.

I think it's more likely that Prigozhin is dead or being tortured. I certainly wouldn't expect to survive leading a coup against Putin, regardless of what Putin says. I guess it's also possible he fled and he's trying to hide.

There's clearly more to this story than we're getting (like why Prigozhin took a deal). But I don't think Putin planned this as an elaborate way to relocate military assets. The military losses he incurred during the attempted coup aren't trivial. And the ordeal makes it look like he's losing his grip on power -- his posturing in the days following the deal show he's desperate to portray himself as a strong leader again.



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