Am I the only one thinking that the "coup" and following "exile to Belarus" was a surprisingly high-profile way of positioning Wagner's assets in Belarus for a move on Kiev, masking the military significance of the realignment with political intrigue?
Yh, it now looks like a genuine psychosis moment from Prigozhin, might look very weird to European people but random crazy decisions like this were how guys like Prigozhin got rich in the 90s in the first place.
I'm sceptical on Wagner being used as a way to attack Ukraine from the north, much more likely explanation is that Russia still needs the PMC structure in Africa but now wants to outsource responsibility to Belarus.
I think that's just business as usual for Russian intelligence agencies: deny that you're keeping close tabs on someone that you're obviously keeping close tabs on. The Russian gov't denying that they could possibly keep track of someone is such a ridiculous claim that it signals a gaslighting playbook.
I think it's more likely that Prigozhin is dead or being tortured. I certainly wouldn't expect to survive leading a coup against Putin, regardless of what Putin says. I guess it's also possible he fled and he's trying to hide.
There's clearly more to this story than we're getting (like why Prigozhin took a deal). But I don't think Putin planned this as an elaborate way to relocate military assets. The military losses he incurred during the attempted coup aren't trivial. And the ordeal makes it look like he's losing his grip on power -- his posturing in the days following the deal show he's desperate to portray himself as a strong leader again.
