The average stay Facebook vs MySpace is what scares me. MySpace has an _insane_ average stay of almost 30 minutes. Facebook has a pretty embarrassing average stay of 13 minutes that tons of other sites beat.
You know why MySpace's average stay is so much longer? It's slow, and you have to click around to every single one of your friend's pages to see if they've updated anything.
Facebook simplified this operation with the news feed and their handy yellow update hilighting.
http://siteanalytics.compete.com/facebook.com+myspace.com?me...
One year isn't very long. I wouldn't take that bet.