I've heard anecdotes comparing ChatGPT to the "iPhone moment" that changed mobile computing. iPhone was a hardware and software product, I'm wondering what purely software technology you think had an impact like ChatGPT?
I think this is the most widespread hype I’ve seen. Whether it will pan out in terms of actual usefulness remains to be seen I think, so kind of hard to say what compares yet.
Part of me wonders whether there would be this much hype without COVID and the Ukraine war and the economy causing so much gloom. People are yearning for a savior of some kind it feels like (I say that as a comment on human nature and as an atheist, this isn’t a disguised Christpost).
Imo it's the exact opposite: If it weren't for the economic gloom and general uncertainty there'd be infinitely more hype.
There'd be even more money pouring in, less focus on a general dystopian slant to it, and less obsessing over labor (COVID was what really spooked a lot of people on that)
For me it’s as useful as online encyclopedias before Wikipedia. I grew up in third world so we didn’t exactly have nice public libraries with all the knowledge in the world. So, as a kid I’d do my homework and then spend hours just reading as much as I could from those encyclopedia Britannia and others.
Anyway I think chatgpt is cool but the issue with these at scale is there’s no way to actually verify or vet its results.
It’s trained on some data and exists within those confines. If it doesn’t know it makes up stuff even when you’ve provided a lot of information in the context.
Now I’m not doing some meme tier crap like make a function that gives me a color hex code.
I’m doing some more complex Postgres debugging and thought I’d use chat gpt and literally getting recommended function names that exist in BigQuery and not in Postgres.
Imo, these tools will find their niche in ultra specialized workflows where there isn’t much requirement for intuition or judgment, and only raw output is needed.
Making data for testing purposes or helping to write scaffolding for common lcd programming tasks, coming up with some headline text or turning a Charles Dickens novel into a ten minute story. Low risk but huge time sink type of work.
I’ve been using gpt 3, 3.5, and now 4 regularly since I got access. I have it open on a 2nd tab and I’d say I’m a power user.
I’m also using open ai api for my product.
Just telling you my experience after using this technology for at least 100 hours. Most of my focus is on software eng and while it’s convenient sometimes I’d say it’s accurate maybe 20% of the time.
Maybe I’m wrong but I fail to see this taking hold in areas that require intuition/verification. It’s great tech for sure but the more I use it I’m like meh.
I think it will be a good replacement for some entry level jobs and manual jobs like data entry or whatever. Anything that is foo foo and doesn’t require >50% accuracy. It might be good for giving you summaries or generating headlines. Again though it’s painfully obvious when something is generated by gpt 4.
It's impact is going to dwarf everything that came before it, but maybe the invention of the graphical user-interface. It requires no sales pitch, its immediately useful, its utility is obvious, its the fasting growing app in history. It's going to be integrated into everything: your smart-speaker, your ring doorbell, all productivity software (photoshop, visual studio...), search engines... what else... your tesla? McDonalds ordering kiosk... call centers... some system that gives you a social credit score, drones.. what else... a new generation of industrial robots...
Couldn't the same be said of Google, or especially search engines in general during the early internet days?
For me, I dont know if ChatGPT will be significant or the Palm Pilot to todays iPhone, but I do feel this AI path is going to be a game changing for human development some time in the not too distant future, hopefully for the better.
When it invents an API out of thin air, should that be considered a recommendation ? The APIs that are hallucinated - are they good, sensible, well-structured APIs ?
I ask because I have no experience with A.I.s inventing APIs.
They were the killer application for personal computers.
Whether you were running a Fortune 500 company or a local club or just your own household, updating a single number in a column and immediately seeing the result reflected across all your calculations in a visual way was amazing.
GPT-4 is not purely a software technology, just like the initial iPhone wasn't either. Without massive improvements in industry-grade GPUs like the A100, I'm unsure we'd be able to have these LLMs (at least this early).
One software innovation I think we often forget about but that is pretty extensively used day-to-day by almost every trade, is the concept of a wiki, a collaborative knowledge base. It exists most famously as Wikipedia, but many other implementations exists (like Notion, or just a Google Drive/synced folder with text files) and can be found in most places in almost any type of business.
The most impactful single unit of software I can think of would be the C compiler.
It’s hard to find anything that runs on a computer today that wasn’t compiled by a C compiler, compiled by something bootstrapped by a C compiler or being executed on some platform compiled by a C compiler.
When Google search blew all the other search engines completely out of the water. Knowing how to effectively use google was a kind of superpower/time saver so it was very refreshing and made you very effective compared to people who were not using it. ChatGPT feels like we're on the edge of that, for certain cases it can accelerate work. Maybe not for everything, but we're still finding out what it can be good at.
If anything it's more like the "Early PC moment", it makes your life a whole lot easier if you use it at work and what you work on can be automated, but for most people it's more of a fun novelty, a nice to have instead of something they can't live without.
So if a parallel has to be drawn, I'll say it's WordStar and Visicalc, even the use case is similar, mostly word processing and analysis.
When you extend the term “software”: Maybe Darwin’s ideas? They also existed long before the public caught on. They also were then widely discussed in newspapers and books. Shook society at the core. And attracted lots of charlatans who abused them to bolster their own unsubstantiated conclusions.
It’s not quite that magnitude yet. But the direction seems close.
ChatGPT promises to have iPhone-level impact, but as of today (April 16, 2023), its impact has largely been to accelerate existing workflows. Its impact is more akin to Photoshop (still, a monumental impact), than the introduction of the smartphone.
This may very well change months and years from now, but as of now it’s too early to claim it has iPhone-level impact.
What exactly are we comparing it to though? Other modern technologies considered 'disruptive' or all software in general? There really is no comparison between something like ChatGPT to software like C lang, UNIX or web servers for example in terms of impact.
Mosaic offered non-tech people entry into the information superhighway (aka internet) which I would argue is the same as chatGPT offering non-tech people entry into AI.
The first time I tried NCSA Mosaic, a light went on. I was fresh out of grad school, and my initial reaction was: Oh great, now everyone can have clickable footnotes that lead straight back to the source being referenced ! Wow!!!!
So yeah, this first impression of mine kinda missed the whole potential inherent in the simple hyperlink mechanism.
And likewise with most initial reactions to LLM A.I.s methinks.
Google search,
hotmail webmail,
Online tools - document editor spreadsheet,
(embedded ) Linux and Unix,
Chrome OS on chromebooks,
distributed computing ( APIs )
I've never personally come across anyone using VR in their work, but I'm meeting non techies every week who are using ChatGPT in their work: legal admins, illustrators, translators electrical engineers etc.
VR has its place but I think these language models are way more broadly useful.
I felt that the broad range of professionals I've met using ChatGPT in their daily work, already so soon after launch and while the technology is still unproven, was suggestive of its applicability across demographics.
Part of me wonders whether there would be this much hype without COVID and the Ukraine war and the economy causing so much gloom. People are yearning for a savior of some kind it feels like (I say that as a comment on human nature and as an atheist, this isn’t a disguised Christpost).