Absorb impact of high tech armaments until Ukraine runs out of those after which they could send in more valuable troops. Armies are like pyramids, tons of 'cannon fodder' on the lower branches, what photos I've seen of the actual Russian troops in Ukraine are mostly scared kids aged 18 to 20 or so, hardly any seasoned troops.
Do you have sources that this is an actual (modern army) doctrine anywhere?
Russia has a demographic crisis. Their population of young men (20-34) will go from 14M to 11M in 5 years. Around a 20% reduction. They won’t have enough men to man their massive borders or maintain their massive infrastructure. Every soldier lost in this war cannot be replaced. Throwing men into the meat-grinder would be the most retarded strategy ever.
That would explain a lot of things, but what the Russians are doing is even more inexplicable, with a mix of good and bad tactics and cheap assets and valuable assets. It’s amateur night in some places, but at least one reporter accidentally discovered that the airport they were reporting from had been taken by Russian paratroopers. (“How far are the Russians?” “We’re the Russians!”)
There’s more nonsensical stuff, but I have the feeling some - but not all - important people on the Russian side really, seriously believed the crazy idea that Ukrainians would all immediately surrender, and acted accordingly.
> That would explain a lot of things, but what the Russians are doing is even more inexplicable, with a mix of good and bad tactics and cheap assets and valuable assets.
Another explanation is that it could be simply a probe to see what the readiness of the Ukrainian forces is. They should know that by now, so you can expect an imminent change in tactics.
> It’s amateur night in some places, but at least one reporter accidentally discovered that the airport they were reporting on had been taken by Russian paratroopers. (“How far are the Russians?” “We’re the Russians!”)
Yes, lots of confusion, but that is to be expected, similar stuff happened during the (former) Yugoslavian war.
> There’s more nonsensical stuff, but I have the feeling some - but not all - important people on the Russian side really, seriously believed the crazy idea that Ukrainians would all immediately surrender, and acted accordingly.
This is a distinct but remote possibility. For sure they underestimated the resistance.
There are a few things that can only be explained by total incompetence on the part of a Russian planner or a belief there’d be no resistance (which I suppose amounts to the same thing).
I don’t have a huge frame of reference since war is not something I normally read about, but it’s striking even to me that the humble Ukrainian Air Force was (still is, one hopes) able to offer the resistance they did. On paper the Russian military is capable of destroying all their airfields and SAM sites the night prior to the invasion, and knowing where those Ukrainian jets were was someone’s job. It seems crazy to say “those fighter pilots will switch sides when they see us coming and there’s no way they would engage our fighters, bombers, or troop transports. Why would we even want to destroy that perfectly good airfield where they are located?” I wonder what the actual conversation was like.
If it’s part of some master plan it’s not exactly brilliant. We are talking about primitive WW2 style doctrine here, which is completely unsuitable for this type of aggressive war and current Russian demographics. The simplest explanation (occam’s razor) is that the Russian army is not as good as many thought.
Absorb impact of high tech armaments until Ukraine runs out of those after which they could send in more valuable troops. Armies are like pyramids, tons of 'cannon fodder' on the lower branches, what photos I've seen of the actual Russian troops in Ukraine are mostly scared kids aged 18 to 20 or so, hardly any seasoned troops.