> That would explain a lot of things, but what the Russians are doing is even more inexplicable, with a mix of good and bad tactics and cheap assets and valuable assets.
Another explanation is that it could be simply a probe to see what the readiness of the Ukrainian forces is. They should know that by now, so you can expect an imminent change in tactics.
> It’s amateur night in some places, but at least one reporter accidentally discovered that the airport they were reporting on had been taken by Russian paratroopers. (“How far are the Russians?” “We’re the Russians!”)
Yes, lots of confusion, but that is to be expected, similar stuff happened during the (former) Yugoslavian war.
> There’s more nonsensical stuff, but I have the feeling some - but not all - important people on the Russian side really, seriously believed the crazy idea that Ukrainians would all immediately surrender, and acted accordingly.
This is a distinct but remote possibility. For sure they underestimated the resistance.
There are a few things that can only be explained by total incompetence on the part of a Russian planner or a belief there’d be no resistance (which I suppose amounts to the same thing).
I don’t have a huge frame of reference since war is not something I normally read about, but it’s striking even to me that the humble Ukrainian Air Force was (still is, one hopes) able to offer the resistance they did. On paper the Russian military is capable of destroying all their airfields and SAM sites the night prior to the invasion, and knowing where those Ukrainian jets were was someone’s job. It seems crazy to say “those fighter pilots will switch sides when they see us coming and there’s no way they would engage our fighters, bombers, or troop transports. Why would we even want to destroy that perfectly good airfield where they are located?” I wonder what the actual conversation was like.
Another explanation is that it could be simply a probe to see what the readiness of the Ukrainian forces is. They should know that by now, so you can expect an imminent change in tactics.
> It’s amateur night in some places, but at least one reporter accidentally discovered that the airport they were reporting on had been taken by Russian paratroopers. (“How far are the Russians?” “We’re the Russians!”)
Yes, lots of confusion, but that is to be expected, similar stuff happened during the (former) Yugoslavian war.
> There’s more nonsensical stuff, but I have the feeling some - but not all - important people on the Russian side really, seriously believed the crazy idea that Ukrainians would all immediately surrender, and acted accordingly.
This is a distinct but remote possibility. For sure they underestimated the resistance.