On: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

[akvadrako]

This is the most important point in this discussion. If we find out for certain this virus came from a lab leak or not, it wouldn't much change the probability it could have.

I'd estimate most people can agree the probability of a lab leak of a dangerous virus in any given decade is between 1-20%. Is this acceptable or can we greatly reduce it with policy?

[tim333 → akvadrako]

I think the prior record of leaks of any dangerous virus has been more like 80%. But that's mostly existing viruses and not setting off pandemics.