The organisation behind it has already ruled there wont be an event this year no matter how thick the ice gets. But people get the “fever” every time the temperature drops below 0 Celcius. This happens every year, it’s a thing.
Also because of next month’s elections some opportunistic/populistic partys are using this event as the hill to die on, hoping to catch some votes and ignoring what people might really be catching in case of such an event.
As some journalists have noted: the 'fever' shows up mostly below the imaginary line you get if you connect the cities of Alkmaar and Zwolle. That is, there is no 'fever' in the province of Fryslân (or Frisia in English) where the event is held and treasured most dearly.
Here in the province people are resigned to the event not happening this year, due to a lack of decent ice and Covid. There will be plenty of skating this weekend, but nothing on the scale of the Elfstedentocht.
And indeed, the brandishing of this event by the populist leaders of the two farright political parties in the Netherlands as something that absolutely must go on if the ice does shape up, leaves a sour taste in many a Frisian's mouth. (Source: I'm a born and bred Frisian living there.)
Which means “It's not possible!”, but sounds like “It's just barely possible!” to Dutch not used to the language and dialects from the North of the country.
This commercial was popular back in the day, and is a tongue-in-cheek exploration of this topic:
Seems doubtful at this point. The quality of the ice is quite bad up North because of the snow (you get brittle snowy ice), and the weather predications note a 75% chance of thaw setting in come Monday:
Some people might go skating in the weekend, but really, the thickness of the ice is pretty minimal. As the local ice master says:
> Der sil hjir en dêr wol wat riden wurde, mar dat is de ferantwurdlikens fan minsken sels. Wy sille de sleatten en fearten noch net frij jaan. Dat sjoch ik der net fan kommen. Ik jou pas grien ljocht as der op bepaalde plakken in smak minsken oer it iis kin.
Tangential observation: Google Translate detects your text as Frisian, but regardless of whether I select Frisian or Dutch, it gives an identical translation into English. Which is it really? And are the two languages really so similar that Google should be able to understand them interchangeably?
It is West-Frisian (Frysk), and the languages are close, but so are Dutch and German or West-Frisian and German (so not that close).
I'm not getting the behaviour you describe though. It detects West-Frisian and does a passable translation, but if I force it to see Dutch as the source it makes no sense of it at all.
It is also failing quite hilariously on „in smak minsken”, which means “quite a bunch of people”, but gets translated as “a taste people”. Google sees „smak” as a misspelling of „smaak” (taste), but it means “a bunch” or “many”.
You are right: I tried again and I can't reproduce the behavior. Perhaps I got confused and selected Frisian twice, the first time I tried. (Google's UI lists it as simply "Frisian" for me, not West-Frisian).
I think most people call it Frisian. West-Frisian is used formally because other (mostly historic) variants exist.
What is now the province of Frisia is only a modest part of what was once a larger kingdom stretching into the North-East of modern Germany (where Ost Friesland is the name of a region in Niedersachsen still). Confusingly, in the Netherlands there is a West-Friesland as well to the West of the province, but people don't speak or understand (West-)Frisian there.
Last I heard, the organization said "the event cannot be held with the current corona rules". Which leaves a lot of room, specifically if the government decides to amend the rules. Besides, if the ice does seem like it will be good enough (which might be if the cold snap seems to hold for next week as well) I think the fever will start increasing in Friesland. Once that starts happening, public pressure will also start to mount.
You seem to be making a few statements based on gut feeling instead of hard numbers. While I also think (opinion, I have no facts to back it) that being outside is safer than staying indoors, I don't think organizing an event is safe.
I mean the Netherlands got their first major outbreak thanks to carnaval last year, which is a partially outdoor event. Another one, in the US, the Sturgis motorcycle rally created a big wave in spreading the 'rona (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e1.htm)
> I cannot imagine anyone catching covid while traveling at 40 km/h over the ice.
The big issue isn't the skating itself, but the logistics at start/finish and the stempelposten with its congestion, as well as the 1 to 1.5 million spectators over a course of 200 km with their parties and alcohol consumption, and the logistics to get everyone there and back (full trains and busses).
> It’s basically impossible to get outside in the first place (unless you are standing mouth to mouth with someone).
> We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. The first salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks that involved three or more cases is that they all occurred in indoor environments.
> A database of more than 20,000 cases (including the 7,324 Chinese cases) found 461 that were associated with transmission in completely outdoor environments — predominantly crowded events like markets and rallies. (emphasis mine)
Your points about attendant risks are probably true though. People will definitely congregate to drink beer and eat soup, and we’ll have another carnival on our hands :/
Also because of next month’s elections some opportunistic/populistic partys are using this event as the hill to die on, hoping to catch some votes and ignoring what people might really be catching in case of such an event.