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I’m extrapolating from my experiences, though I don’t think research disagrees with me here.

Here is the first one I could find: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v...

> We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. The first salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks that involved three or more cases is that they all occurred in indoor environments.

And another: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/09/10/202...

> A database of more than 20,000 cases (including the 7,324 Chinese cases) found 461 that were associated with transmission in completely outdoor environments — predominantly crowded events like markets and rallies. (emphasis mine)

Your points about attendant risks are probably true though. People will definitely congregate to drink beer and eat soup, and we’ll have another carnival on our hands :/



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