Our analysis indicates that increasing pressure in the magmatic system, which far exceeds the change in pressure modeled as due to rainwater infiltration, was the primary driver in triggering the 2018 eruption.
For HVO, the smoking gun is found in the ground deformation record across a broad region of Kīlauea Volcano leading up to the eruption.
...
In summary, our consensus interpretation of HVO's monitoring data is that magma pressurization was the driving force in triggering the events of late April and early May of 2018.
No external process, such as rainfall, is needed to explain this.
But what about the rainfall hypothesis? While the role of groundwater and rain infiltration impacting the behavior of the volcano remains an interesting area of research, we know that extreme rainfall events have occurred many times in the recent past when no eruptions occurred, and the spring 2018 rains were no greater than many previous rainstorms.
Strange to think something as powerful and seemingly primal as a volcano could be triggered by rain, a phenomenon we dont consider as nearly the same level of fundamental primal power
Well... with sea level rise, and changing pressure due to ice sheets melting (crust rebound), I would expect seismic and volcanic activity. Probably more of a polar thing, though?
There is some pretty strong evidence that mid-ocean ridge volcanism is modulated by sea level change (no bearing on hot spot volcanism like HI). I read some papers on it a few years ago. Here's a recent one I haven't read yet: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116121
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/hvo_volcano_wat...
"""
Our analysis indicates that increasing pressure in the magmatic system, which far exceeds the change in pressure modeled as due to rainwater infiltration, was the primary driver in triggering the 2018 eruption.
For HVO, the smoking gun is found in the ground deformation record across a broad region of Kīlauea Volcano leading up to the eruption.
...
In summary, our consensus interpretation of HVO's monitoring data is that magma pressurization was the driving force in triggering the events of late April and early May of 2018.
No external process, such as rainfall, is needed to explain this.
But what about the rainfall hypothesis? While the role of groundwater and rain infiltration impacting the behavior of the volcano remains an interesting area of research, we know that extreme rainfall events have occurred many times in the recent past when no eruptions occurred, and the spring 2018 rains were no greater than many previous rainstorms.
"""