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A Coronavirus Vaccine Is Coming, and It Will Work (city-journal.org)
43 points by devy on April 17, 2020 | hide | past | favorite | 12 comments



Can't vouch for the science in the post, but he did an excellent job describing it to non-scientists.


I'll vouch for it. This is one of the best layperson's explanations I've seen. Very clear description of the risks posed by segmented genomes vs not etc.


Yep, the author Peter Kolchinsky has a PhD degree in Virology from Harvard University.

https://peterkolchinsky.com/bio


Remember there was a vaccine candidate for SARS. It was not further developed for financial reasons. In a different world we could have started into this crisis with a working vaccine delivery system for corona viruses. That had been clinically tested already, maybe us a massive head start like we have on the seasonal flu every year.


> We’re now inventing new vaccines from scratch and could plausibly go from nothing to a marketed vaccine in about a year.

The fastest vaccine development timeline to market in human history was for Ebola. That took 5 years.

A Zika vaccine was started in 2015 and still has candidates in phase III trials. Why is everyone so optimistic in this case?


Imagine if we improved our vaccine capability to generate a new vaccine in less than a year?

That would be something amazing if that emerged from all of this.


Isn't most of the delay due to the necessity of running human trials? That's the part that's difficult to speed up.


Peter runs the investment firm RA Capital Management, which could stand to make a pretty penny with the introduction of an effective vaccine. Not saying he's wrong, but he may have a conflict of interest here.


Yes, but I believe his intention in writing this article is to explain the science behind why there will be highly likely a working vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 virus, rather than giving specific companies in his VC portfolio who make vaccines a PR boost.


What's the actual evidence presented here? He explains the problem space and technology, but that's not the same as evidence that we're certain a vaccine will work for SARS-CoV-2


I think the main point of the article is to debunk the claim that coronavirus is flu-like in the way it mutates.


Great but if the vaccine takes a year before it can be used it’s too little too late. You can’t keep these lockdowns up for a year so they’ll have to be lifted and then everyone will get infected and either die or become immune anyway.




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