"As a comparison, Germany has a <2% fatality rate"
Germany's good numbers may not hold.
20 days ago Germany had 7256 cases. Italy had 27977.
10 days ago Germany had 37307 cases. Italy had 74383.
0 days ago Germany had 96076 cases. Italy had 124629.
The point being that Germany saw the outbreak take hold considerably after Italy. Italy had a very low original death rate as well -- approximately 2% weeks into the outbreak. This virus takes weeks to kill most of its victims.
14 days ago Germany had a death rate of 0.375%.
7 days ago, Germany had a death to case rate of 0.75%.
Today it's at 1.5%. It has increased every day between.
The fact that Italy is a hyper-social society, while Germany, at least from my probably wrong foreign view, is quite the opposite, probably changed the path of the disease, accelerating its spread in Italy.
Yes, as the infection spreads testing becomes overwhelmed and the apparent fatality rate goes up. A recent trial found that in one German town the actual fatality rate was 0.37%. They did antibody testing so they knew everyone who had been or was infected.
I am not sure if it’s even possible to give the fatality rate before everything is over because we don’t know if an infected patient eventually dies from the disease with a long delay. This is why I totally expect a growing fatality rate now.
Germany's good numbers may not hold.
20 days ago Germany had 7256 cases. Italy had 27977.
10 days ago Germany had 37307 cases. Italy had 74383.
0 days ago Germany had 96076 cases. Italy had 124629.
The point being that Germany saw the outbreak take hold considerably after Italy. Italy had a very low original death rate as well -- approximately 2% weeks into the outbreak. This virus takes weeks to kill most of its victims.
14 days ago Germany had a death rate of 0.375%.
7 days ago, Germany had a death to case rate of 0.75%.
Today it's at 1.5%. It has increased every day between.
The fact that Italy is a hyper-social society, while Germany, at least from my probably wrong foreign view, is quite the opposite, probably changed the path of the disease, accelerating its spread in Italy.