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Weirdly enough, just yesterday I took all available sequence data currently on GISAID, used it to estimate R0, and got ... 1.3.



The imperial college had it estimated 2.1 - 3.3 before "stay at home" measures. Obligatory influenza is 1.5.


If that were true then how can you possibly explain how rapidly the pandemic is spreading?


It's curiously spreading at the exact same rate that tests are being administered. Curious indeed..


Long time to spread.


Maybe you got the terminology mixed up like I had? `* 1.3` is just about the growth rate per day, which isn't R0.


Intersting. Can you post what you did maybe on a Jupyter notebook?




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