I mean.. there are tons of conferences happening every weekend. Widespread dispersal is not inevitable, just like everyone doesn't get the flu every year, despite new viruses appearing [1].
Wash your hands often, don't touch your face, and carry alcohol sanitizer.
> A flu vaccine is needed every season for two reasons. First, a person’s immune protection from vaccination declines over time, so an annual vaccine is needed for optimal protection. Second, because flu viruses are constantly changing, flu vaccines may be updated from one season to the next to protect against the viruses that research suggests may be most common during the upcoming flu season. For the best protection, everyone 6 months and older should get vaccinated annually.
Realistically, widespread transmission in the US (and the world over, honestly) _is_ inevitable at this point. Not everyone gets the flu every year because we have natural immunity to it; that's not the case with this virus because it's new.
Your advice is good though - take preventative measures!
That being said, most cases are mild! The logistical concern is to minimize the number of severe cases that require hospitalization at any given time so that the health system isn't overwhelmed. It's important to slow the spread as much as possible so that those with severe symptoms can get the care they need.
Not everybody gets coronavirus either. The Diamond Princess cruise ship is pretty close to a worst case scenario, and even there "only" ~700 of 3700+ (20%) have tested positive.
Note that this number might be kinda deceptive both ways. Because they were forced to stay on the ship abnormally long under quarantine.
There's a paper that estimates that if they were allowed to leave the ship right away (on Feb 3rd) 2% would have been infected, and if they were not taking special measures (isolation, etc) but on the ship for a similar amount of time (until Feb 19) that 80% of the passengers would have been infected:
It's true, you might be exposed and not get infected. But given the relatively high rate of infection coupled with lack of natural immunity, you should probably assume that you will become infected once it becomes widespread in your community.
But seriously, most cases are mild - and that's just the reported ones, which will almost inevitably skew to more serious symptoms.
Technical question: I'm not super familiar with this virus, for how long will you still test positive after you've recovered? And could that be impacting the statistics from the cruise ship?
So why do we cancel so many million-dollars events? It seems we’re voluntarily halting our economies, stopping the production of some goods but also of some code and research, in front of a tide that will come anyway.
Edit: I see the downvotes but that is actually a question, not a suggestion to not shut down them.
It's a reasonable and well phrased question, so it's unfortunate that people are down voting it.
There are a few reasons as far as I understand it. Bear in mind how quickly our understanding of the virus (symptoms, transmission, infection rate & severity, etc) has evolved.
Initially, the only sensible thing to do was to attempt containment if at all possible. In my opinion, the US demonstrated a complete lack of preparedness and coordination here. Remember, we didn't know how bad it might (or might not) be. If it had turned out to be as deadly as SARS (it's not), things would be very bad right now. You have to assume the worst until you know for certain (within reason, of course).
There's also a preparedness aspect to things. Buying only a little more time can sometimes allow you to be much better equipped to handle the situation.
Then there's the logistical aspect. The tide may be inevitable, but how suddenly it arrives will make a huge difference in the quality of care (and thus outcomes) that is available to the few who exhibit severe symptoms. There are only so many hospital beds in the country, and we can only manufacture supplies so quickly. Imagine the difference between everyone in the country coming down with the flu on the same day, versus spread out over the course of a year.
This is analogous to saying “big O notation doesn’t matter because the code is going to get run either way”.
There’s a massive difference between each hospital dealing with 3 dozen severe respiratory cases at a time and 3 thousand. Part of the game is to run out the clock before cold season ends so hopefully the rate of infection drops.
Wash your hands often, don't touch your face, and carry alcohol sanitizer.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/keyfacts.htm
> Why do I need a flu vaccine every year?
> A flu vaccine is needed every season for two reasons. First, a person’s immune protection from vaccination declines over time, so an annual vaccine is needed for optimal protection. Second, because flu viruses are constantly changing, flu vaccines may be updated from one season to the next to protect against the viruses that research suggests may be most common during the upcoming flu season. For the best protection, everyone 6 months and older should get vaccinated annually.