2. South Korea cut off access to banks by cryptocurrency exchanges in December, and access to exchanges by foreign traders. As a result the prices in the country spiked, and the largest price aggregator CoinMarketCap removed Korean exchanges from the index because they were skewing the averages. This caused ~$150B to appear to have suddenly vanished, gapping prices down. This is when the sell-off began in earnest. Then recently the South Korean Minister of Justice said he wants to shut down exchanges, but then the PM says that would require a vote in the National Assembly on new legislation. They are consulting with Japan (who are positive on crypto) and China (who are not) to create a new regulatory framework. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20180116000817
4. France's central bank has been whining about cryptocurrency for some time and finally convinced the Minister of Finance to make a public statement and authorize a draft of new regulations. https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/905169/bitcoin-France...
5. A speculative theory: the Bitcoin futures contracts are about to expire, and some investors will have bet on lower BTC prices. There could be large market players deliberately pushing prices down to meet those futures bets. Or just market makers wanting to get in at a lower price point.
Or just price manipulation by big holders. External factors/news are often regarded as the cause of dips and gains, while other, often simpler reasons remain under appreciated.
How would you define "overvalued"? Is it the current average price compared to a very low price three months from now? What if it recovers a few weeks after that — would that change the fact that it was once "overvalued"? Valuation is not based on nothing, in vacuum. The challenge is to understand the underlying factors. The post you replied to actually tried to shed some light.
The difference between the price of bitcoin versus the price of bitcoin as it would be if it was only used as a medium of exchange rather than a speculative asset.
No, the energy required is a function of the price, not the other way around.
The bitcoin network adjusts the block difficulty (effectively the energy required to mine 1 BTC) every 2016 blocks such that the rate of creating blocks is fixed at one block (currently 12.5 BTC) every ten minutes.
If the dollar value of energy required to mine 1 BTC is significantly less than the current dollar value of a bitcoin then it is likely more hash power will be added to the network by the bitcoin farms, further increasing the network's hash rate, and as a consequence the block difficulty and therefore the price of the energy required to mine 1 BTC.
I thought most people, even the hard-core believers, were waiting for a correction. The previous times Bitcoin grew so exponentially it was always followed with a hard crash, though this time it's taking a bit longer.
Yes theres that, but BTC being overvalued doesn't explain the entire market dip that we are seeing now. However, it is consistent with Bitcoin's historical pattern:
> 3. Indonesia just banned cryptocurrency transactions, stating only their native currency is legal tender.
Nitpick:
Butcoin is not, to my knowledge, legal tender anywhere. What Indonesia has done is declare that all transactions in Indonesia must be denominated in rupiah. This is far more restrictive than most Weatern nations where private parties may accept anything they want as payment, but must accept legal tender in certain circumstances.
1. China cracking down harder: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/01/16/business/16reuter...
2. South Korea cut off access to banks by cryptocurrency exchanges in December, and access to exchanges by foreign traders. As a result the prices in the country spiked, and the largest price aggregator CoinMarketCap removed Korean exchanges from the index because they were skewing the averages. This caused ~$150B to appear to have suddenly vanished, gapping prices down. This is when the sell-off began in earnest. Then recently the South Korean Minister of Justice said he wants to shut down exchanges, but then the PM says that would require a vote in the National Assembly on new legislation. They are consulting with Japan (who are positive on crypto) and China (who are not) to create a new regulatory framework. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20180116000817
3. Indonesia just banned cryptocurrency transactions, stating only their native currency is legal tender. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/01/15/bank-indonesia...
4. France's central bank has been whining about cryptocurrency for some time and finally convinced the Minister of Finance to make a public statement and authorize a draft of new regulations. https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/905169/bitcoin-France...
5. A speculative theory: the Bitcoin futures contracts are about to expire, and some investors will have bet on lower BTC prices. There could be large market players deliberately pushing prices down to meet those futures bets. Or just market makers wanting to get in at a lower price point.