Thanks for disagreeing and extending the dialogue.
Friendster and Myspace didn't have a chance to figure out a way of making money that earns billions a year. Facebook has. That is why - Facebook is now in a position to not wither away like Friendster and Myspace. But thats just my opinion.
Claims for Facebook making billions seem exagerated to me.
You can see that Google is more or less established not because they are making billions but because there's an "eco-system" of companies who make money along with Google and can be expected to keep pushing that money long term back to Google. The same might (or might not) be said about the iPhone. But you'd be hard pressed to find anything like a stable ecosystem grown-up around Facebook. The only thing that grows on Facebook seems to be social games and those depend on FB's own growth. The claim of social network sites has been that they can sell focused eyes. But I haven't seen evidence that they can sell social eyes that will do anything.
It seems like even without a competitor, Facebook will become Yahoo in a few years - not dead but a site that can charge very a premium for ads or experience.
Claims for Facebook making billions seem exagerated to me.
Google makes billions by knowing what you are looking for and offering more relevant ads.
Now consider how much more Facebook does know about you and what it can offer for advertisers.
Does Facebook really know more? Google knows everything I'm looking for and what I like through the tons of websites I visit (thanks to google analytics). And if you use gmail and google maps, it also knows your friends and where you go to.
Friendster and Myspace didn't have a chance to figure out a way of making money that earns billions a year. Facebook has. That is why - Facebook is now in a position to not wither away like Friendster and Myspace. But thats just my opinion.