I have consulted two of the (I guess) "big names" in AR here in Germany and I can basically confirm point 2. AR agencies struggle to get any hold in any market. While they (legitimately) try (and technically succeed) to innovate and automate, AR is far from being a thing accepted by the average consumer. People don't use QR codes anymore, they certainly won't load yet another app and scan your marker.
(Intermission: Unless "they" is Chinese. While pitching the tech in front of a Chinese delegation, the audience went quite literally wild. The enthusiasm about gimmick-y tech radiated by Chinese business (wo)men is the exact opposite of the stone-cold non-interest of Germans)
Where ARA shine however is, as you predicted, industrial tech. The implementations I witnessed were used by Airbus, Siemens, Bosch, Audi et al. for exactly two purposes:
1. Assembly line education or
2. Massive scale marketing (in a physical sense) like projecting actual buildings for architects
(Intermission: Unless "they" is Chinese. While pitching the tech in front of a Chinese delegation, the audience went quite literally wild. The enthusiasm about gimmick-y tech radiated by Chinese business (wo)men is the exact opposite of the stone-cold non-interest of Germans)
Where ARA shine however is, as you predicted, industrial tech. The implementations I witnessed were used by Airbus, Siemens, Bosch, Audi et al. for exactly two purposes:
1. Assembly line education or 2. Massive scale marketing (in a physical sense) like projecting actual buildings for architects
At least this is my experience.