It reminded me of "thinking fast and slow" book where the author refers to the study conducted by Terry Odean and Brad Barber:
"In a paper titled “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth,” they showed that, on average, the most active traders had the poorest results, while the investors who traded the least earned the highest returns. In another paper, titled “Boys Will Be Boys,” they showed that men acted on their useless ideas significantly more often than women, and that as a result women achieved better investment results than men."
and concludes:
"It is important to remember that this is a statement about averages: some individuals did much better, others did much worse. However, it is clear that for the large majority of individual investors, taking a shower and doing nothing would have been a better policy than implementing the ideas that came to their minds."
Kahneman, Daniel (2011-11-03). Thinking, Fast and Slow (p. 214). Penguin Books Ltd. Kindle Edition.
As a small personal trader you're probably paying a non trivial amount in bp space for each move in and out of a position (whilst competing with companies which don't).
The average actively trading investor will inevitably lose money vs the underlying benchmark index(es) that represent their portfolio.
The secret with building good models is and will always be about getting good data. There is a ton of good data for trading. Unfortunately, the SEC frowns on it being used for profit.
> Unfortunately, the SEC frowns on it being used for profit.
That's not true. You can use as much good data as you want for trading. As long as it doesn't come from the officers of a company (directly or laundered) before that data is announced publicly.
