Note that this is not guaranteed or even expected at a prop shop or hedge fund either. I know of a very large hedge fund where pay is not as good as you think. I will just say that I have never seen a trader who makes $1 million per year claim that this is a good way of doing it.
You're probably better off as a SWE at Google than as a trader at this hedge fund.
Yeah it's not guaranteed at all. You have to be at a profitable desk to make it happen. I don't want to give any numbers since it's too variable, but I would guess it would still be a minority of the traders who pull 1 million+ even at the most successful firms. But I think if you are aiming for that number it's the most straightforward way - it has the least amount of variability and just relies on your own personal skill generally.
Having worked as a trader, a lot of it comes not from personal skill, but just from being in the right product, at the right firm, at the right time.
Even at firms/desks that are in the right products at the right time, few people actually make 7 figures. If I'm not mistaken, you should be aware of this for a variety of reasons. I'm not convinced that making this kind of money is easier or more likely in finance than in tech.
Thanks for the insight! My experience is, admittedly, based on a limited sample size. I think you're right though, there is still huge variability for traders, and a lot of it is luck.
I think that a sufficiently motivated person could find a leaked list of bonuses from that firm and check for themselves if there were any new grads that made $1 million+ and also check how many such persons there were.
You're probably better off as a SWE at Google than as a trader at this hedge fund.