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"Treat as zero" is bad advice. "Treat as 10x or 50x cheaper than they say it is" - that's good advice. The difference is that 10x more equity solves a lot of problems with equity, and it's not what you'll be gunning for if you think its value is zero.



Given how few startup companies actually make it, treating it as zero is the only sane and rational thing to do.


Right, because it's better to be paid $X/year and have 0 stock options than it is to be paid $X/year and have Y stock options, and no sane person would prefer the latter or negotiate for a Y large enough to be worth something even if the startup doesn't "make it" but is sold for 5x less than they tell you the IPO is going to be. And a company that has already got $200M invested into it is just as likely to fail to grow in value as a 1-person startup operating from a dorm room - it's always a 1 in a million lottery ticket. Only after IPO do RSUs suddenly gain value from 0 to something.


Given loss aversion and human talent for rationalising their sunk cost, do you really think you'll be able to accurately value those options? Treating them as worth 0/ε is a good heuristic, it'll give you the right decision basically every time.




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