Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

That's a very pessimistic view of the economy. Why do you expect the future to be so much worse than the past? The S&P 500 has averaged 7%/year (after inflation) over the past 80+ years.



Current 30 year bond rates and the performance of stocks in the 21st century are significantly less lucrative than in previous decades.

The end of exponential population growth as the Earth has already filled beyond its carrying capacity predictably eliminates all sources of growth except productivity growth. Previous generations could depend on a population and resource extraction growth boost of 2-5% per year, but that will pull back to negative drag as population of first world peoples shrinks and affordable oil production drags. That 7% growth is now equivalent to 2% in the conditions today's people will retire into.


> Current 30 year bond rates and the performance of stocks in the 21st century are significantly less lucrative than in previous decades.

I'm just eyeballing this, but after adjusting for inflation neither recent stock nor bond yields look out of the ordinary, historically speaking.

There are always reasons to expect growth to go down, and other reasons to expect it to go up. It isn't clear to me why cherrypicking solely from the former group is supposed to be convincing.




Consider applying for YC's Fall 2025 batch! Applications are open till Aug 4

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: