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New Warship’s Big Guns Have No Bullets (defensenews.com)
102 points by protomyth on Nov 7, 2016 | hide | past | favorite | 165 comments



The absurdity of this is not explained very well in the article because of a lack of context. The Zumwalt is not meant to be an "anti-air" ship, it was meant to be a replacement for battleships in the role of shelling land targets from sea. One of the reasons why it is meant to be stealthy is so that it can go close to the shore.

The program has been cut down because of problems, though not with the guns. Except that now there are much fewer ships and the rounds will be so expensive the navy won't buy them. They can use old rounds but they won't work better then the cheaper old rounds on the cheaper old ships using cheaper guns.

And the point of the ship is .. what?

If you are a US taxpayer you should weep.


> And the point of the ship is .. what? If you are a US taxpayer you should weep.

Same as any prototype or sufficiently advanced aircraft like the F-117, pave the way for future generations like the Beast of Kandahar, demonstrate or invalidate a series of bold ideas.

In particular, the number of innovations crammed in the Zumwalt makes it relatively cost-effective from a "things we had to try" point of view: new low RCS hull, new composite bridge, new launch system (VLS), new centralised control systems (TSCE). All of this stuff can now be iterated upon and integrated in newer ships. That the new gun system has "failed" in practice is itself a lesson probably worth the dollars spent on it.

Not to mention: look up the name of its first captain [1].

There's few institutions that can do R&D with a multi-decade horizon and the armed forces are one of them. Is there waste in the process, sure, the ghost of Admiral Rickover must be turning in his grave, but it is not totally wasted, unlike a certain aircraft that is somehow manufactured in a full 45 states (have the remaining ones managed to get a piece yet, I haven't followed).

[1] http://www.public.navy.mil/surfor/ddg1000/Pages/bio1.aspx - shame the USS Enterprise was inactivated in 2012.


>Same as any prototype or sufficiently advanced aircraft like the F-117, pave the way for future generations ...

The F-117 had an incredibly useful operational life, though. I can't imagine these three destroyers having anywhere near the relative effectiveness that the F-117 program brought to the table for its time.


Obviously, the comparison is not perfect. For starters, Have Blue was done by Kelly Johnson's Lockheed (although technically under Ben Rich, himself no slouch); Rickover's nuclear navy was similarly led and with similar low budgets, met deadlines and exceeded expectations. So ROI for projects from that era will be much higher (and let's not mention the actual Kelly Johnson projects like the A-12...).

That being said I'm not sure the F-117 was that useful in actual combat, certainly it was used because it was there but did it change anything? It flew a large number of sorties in the first Gulf War but some say these could have been flown cheaper and just as well with conventional aircraft [1], and bombed a few targets in Yugoslavia (so far away from the kind of conflict it was designed for that TV crews were filming it taking off, live) until Zoltan Dani worked out how to shoot one down using equipment worth a fraction as much thus pointing out its edge was gone in less than two decades after launch.

As far as I understand it, Have Blue's main value was to pave the way for stealth research, its operational value being what happened to it in combat rather than the targets it took out.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_F-117_Nighthawk#Opera... "On the first night they failed to hit 40% of the air-defense targets they were assigned, including the Air Defense Operations Center in Baghdad, and 8 such targets remained functional out of 10 that could be assessed. [...] many other aircraft hit targets in the downtown area, with minimal casualties when they attacked at night like the F-117"


The Zumwalt was designed for railguns. The third ship of the class will have at least one railgun. That fires dumb projectiles at some insane velocity. Maybe the earlier ships will get an upgrade.


and I bet they don't cost $800,000 each


Here's the Navy's railgun.[1] Each projectile costs $25,000. Not clear why it costs that much.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXF0n6aojSc


Interesting point. We are quick to judge such apparent failures and waste on the part of the government, but what percentage of Silicon Valley startups succeed? What percentage of scientific experiments advance our knowledge?


I don't think the difference is about the source of the money. It's about whether the returns are, to use terms from machine learning, in exploration versus exploitation.

If the point of these expensive weapons systems is to inefficiently defeat imaginary enemies, then clearly they are a waste of money and the real motive is corporate welfare.

But if the point is 'we don't know what the world will be like in 2050, and the only way to find out and start preparing for it is to build a lot of hardware that doesn't end up getting directly used' then that could be a valid justification. I'm not making any claims about whether that actually is the justification. I'm just saying that if it is, it's the one that would work.


The difference is that VCs give their money to the start-up voluntarily.

Tax payers are forced.


By the people they chose to make those decisions.


A big part of the US political discourse for the last 5 or so years has been that the voters no longer have any say. The machinery of so-called "Big Defence" trundles on forever, immune from the politicians who might want to cut spending due to the attack ads they would surely face about "jeopardizing national security".


The national security argument only flies if the people buy it. That's the root cause; fix the people.

I deliberately and provocatively overly simplify the issue here, but I claim that every problem we face can be solved by better education that simply requires people to ask "Is that really the way you say it is?" in every single step of every single fact they ever face.


>The national security argument only flies if the people buy it. That's the root cause; fix the people.

You can't. People that are receptive to the politics of fear are that way because of brain structure; they simply are unable to respond to reasoned arguments.


They choose between two options.

To make the point: Would you rather suffer from pest or cholera for the next 4 years?

Following your argument you cannot complain because you chose it.


That's not how it works. They are very well capable of choosing something else and we all know it. They may lack the knowledge to do it - but that is fixable, politicians are not.


Well, there is no (credible) third. So maybe they would if they could and maybe not.

It sounds like we both agree on the problem and disagree on the solution.

If I understand correctly, you want to fix the people by educating them / making them think more!?

I think the problem is also solvable by fixing the system via direct feedback. This could be implemented via continuous elections (instead of once every 4ys) , directed tax payments (dedicated to specific areas/projects/representatives), direct elections (no intermediary), ...

Of course, today's politicians would never allow any of this to happen, so the problem is still somehow the politician.


There's no point in making people just to think more. They have to think very carefully and along a very specific line of though: they have to ask, "Is it really the way you say it is?", every single time something, anything, meaningful is at stake, for the rest of their lives.

People talk endlessly about their values. They talk about self-reliance, decency, honor. But we betray our values if we don't know what really is true. We work against our best interest and our dearest of things when we are mislead the moment we stop asking what really is. No matter what the values.

How about some self-reliance of thought for a change.

Make no mistake, it is a 30-year project to fix peoples. You need to educate a single generation before things start to get better. But then they will. Happens every time and in every country and in every culture. Skip that and no matter what you try, everything falls apart eventually if the people don't want to ask what really is true. Everything else is built on top of that. Nothing else is sufficient anymore, not in this age we now find ourselves in.

PS. I agree - I am greatly in favor of shortening any feedback loops in any system, societal, political, business, software development - it is what makes systems robust against changing environments.


> Well, there is no (credible) third.

How about not pissing around where we are clearly not wanted?

Spreading democracy is great and all, but it's pretty clear that the various places we've been trying to spread it aren't interested in the least. How about we let them stew in their own mess for a while and put our efforts into fixing issues at home for a while?

Maybe stop trying to be the world's policeman for a while. Let the UN sort it out and when they inevitably fail, then we can think about it. And if the UN doesn't, well, at least we haven't wasted the money in the meantime.


CAPTAIN James T. Kirk......just kidding James A. Kirk.


CVN-80 is going into service in 2025... just saying.


maybe, the Ford class is having a lot of teething pains.


Or James R. Kirk, depending on the episode: http://i.stack.imgur.com/KLPqJ.jpg


>And the point of the ship is .. what?

To funnel money into select pockets, in the name of "national security", to make politicians and some of their constituents happy, and to maintain the fiction that we require this ever-evolving arsenal in the face of threats which are decades behind us.

All while ignoring that China, Russia, and whoever else we fantasize about large-scale conflict with, have nuclear weapons just like us. It's nonsense, but there is so much money to be made from nonsense... just ask any successful religion.


But let's be fair. Can't the same be said of the startup tech industry? Tell me it doesn't exist to funnel money into select pockets? Why is it that Larry Page is a mega-billionaire, but people like Tim Berners-Lee or Linus Torvalds make so little?

Furthmore, can't the same be said about the ad industry that effectively bankrolls the internet because everyone wants to get rich building something that people won't actually buy directly but whose money they can get at through a back door into their pocket (because all ad money is baked into something else the consumer buys)?


One type of funnel is voluntary, the other is not. Not only that, but one type of funnel breaks windows, the other could be argued that it creates them.

Of course, it can be said that there is value created by having a strong military in that it protects our nations ability to innovate and create value.


Only the US would use a $10B aircraft carrier to launch a $100M aircraft to drop a $100K bomb on a kid hiding in a hole with a $100 AK-47.


The original quote you're thinking of is this one, I presume:

"Each Javelin round costs $80,000, and the idea that it’s fired by a guy who doesn’t make that in a year at a guy who doesn’t make that in a lifetime is somehow so outrageous it almost makes the war seem winnable.”


A scrimmage in a Border Station- A canter down some dark defile Two thousand pounds of education Drops to a ten-rupee jezail.

As Kipling put it the last time we were in that part of the world. The Western militarys spend the $80,000 because whilst the soldier firing it may not make $80,000 in a year the cost to recruit and train, as well as the future economic worth of the citizen, is far greater.


I love that quote. Somehow it just highlights the irrationality of it all.


great quote.


>Only the US would use a $10B aircraft carrier to launch a $100M aircraft to drop a $100K bomb on a kid hiding in a hole with a $100 AK-47.

and this is why US lose so few servicemen lives while killing tens of thousands of those "kids". Sending in troops with M-16, Vietnam style, without support of those $100M aircraft launched from those $10B carriers would result in comparable, on the scale of thousands, losses of those troops. Speaking pure economically, morals/politics aside, a cost of 1 life used for various calculations in US by government, insurance, etc. is about $7M, thus 1 thousand lives comes to $7B - very well comparable with the cost of campaign where $100K/100M/10B military tech is used instead of wasting servicemen lives. Wasting money instead of human lives - not a bad choice. For example, in Russia (where i'm originally from) they usually do it the other way and it isn't a good thing.


mineral rights are a helluva drug.


it would be a big freaking deal if any other country started doing it

like when that guy simultaneously attacked the world power of Britain despite being under sanctions


Don't forget the in-air refueling cost that's there to save the Navy the embarrassment of taking off and landing anywhere near where the Air Force does.


Duplication of function is a good thing, militarily. You wouldn't want the Navy to be unable to fly because the Air Force had an issue or was unable to immediately respond.


When your life depends on it, you never want to count on another branch of the service. Or you wind up asking for help from a douche like US Army General McChrystal. Who won't give it to you. Here's one person's comments on how the general fucked over some Marines and Navy:

   they left our men to perish without fire
   support because of your rules of engagement

   I don’t retreat one iota from what I said there.
   McChrystal, with his ROE, is a murderer
The request for help went all the way to General McChrystal, but he wouldn't give it to them. Asked again, he refused again.

http://www.captainsjournal.com/category/general-mcchrystal/

http://www.captainsjournal.com/2011/02/17/reprimands-in-mari...


Come on. You seriously can't think of any situation where the Navy might want to launch planes too far from an air force Base to stage through it? There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of our spending on carriers; this is not one of them.


This. The maintenance crews are on the carrier. They can be moved to a land base along with the aircraft, but that would leave the carrier undefended.


Isn't carrier defence what the other ships that travel with the carrier do?


Carrier defense is, in theory, like an onion. Aircraft, SAMs, point defense. Aircraft are probably the most important since not many launching platforms can get into range of the carrier without risking attack by aircraft.


The big picture is darker. US Navy had future operating concept based on three types of new ships:

* CGX: ASW/ASuW/AD workhorse * DDGX: land attack platform * LCS: cheap platform for everything else

CGX got canned for being near $10B estimated. DDGX got canned according to CNO Roughhead because it's inadequate for the future and too expensive.

Only LCS survived. It has two different classes (Independence from Austal USA and Freedom from Lockheed Martin) with very similar problems, mostly with engines. Their whole operating concept was just retconned. Now they have very lightly armed ships that cost almost as much as Arleigh Burke class destroyers.

Combined with 10 B/each Gerald R. Ford class carrier program it looks like USN is having massive problems with all of its surface vessel programs.

https://www.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/52a095...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/440kj1/dis...


Exactly. All the surface vessels are too expensive, perhaps because the roles and missions aren't really viable anymore. Submarines continue to make sense, but making large surface warships that can survive attack in a modern conflict and perform the missions they are supposed to seems very difficult.


They will buy the rounds when they need them until then it's a 'negotiation'.

It's a paradox.

I worked in space systems as an intern. We built the latches - plates that go onto satellites so the robot arm can hold them. It's just a simple piece of metal but they cost $200 000 each. Because they buy so few and a lot of R&D goes into them.

That's partly why the F35's cost so much.

You want 50 jets of one type, instead of 400 of varying types? Well, all those workers still have to get paid ... so, it ends up costing 'the same'.


Zumwalt's more of a technology demonstrator.

And note, that they do plan to fit rail guns to the Zumwalt class later on, which is possible thanks to their increased electrical capacity. They're not useless.


They're useless and expensive, and utterly unproven in anything like combat. All of this, for what? Our next adventure in the Middle East against an adversary armed with Russian surplus from the 80's? To stay ahead of the arms we sell to other countries, or the fantasy that a major war between superpowers would be conventional, rather than proxy or nuclear?


You know why we're doing it. We need to deter a resurgent Russia and China.

People like you thought that nukes made conventional militaries obsolete in the 50's. That was wrong then and it's wrong now. In order to maintain control of the seas and skies, we need to maintain our edge in aviation and in naval technology.


"People like me"... always a non-starter; it tells me that you're arguing with a model of who I am in your head, that probably has more to do with the people you argued with in the past than anything to do with me.

I don't think nukes end conventional militaries, but I think they end conventional conflicts between nuclear armed nations. That's why we're fighting Russia in a proxy war in Syria, and not with tanks in the Ukraine. As for China, how many times could our navy and air force obliterate them as it stands? Besides, they're just taking a page from our book, letting us front the R&D, then... stealing the designs.

Much cheaper, much smarter.


"People like you" isn't a non-starter if they just mean "people who think nukes end the need for competitive conventional capabilities", and the justification for such a model can be gathered entirely in this thread.


The "like you" part may be completely unjustified - especially when M_Grey said "I don't think nukes end conventional militaries".


He has however made it clear he thinks we don't need them to be competitive, which is why I used that word.


I believe the Russians have noticed this and are therefore resolved not to fight a conventional war with the US either. So what they're doing is expanding both "unconventional" and "deniable" warfare. Why fight a military when you can encourage a society's autoimmune response to destroy itself?

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/nov/06/troll-armies-s...

Not just Ukraine and Syria, where the influence is obvious, but I suspect we'll eventually find they have a hand in the collapse of democracy in Turkey. And there's the feeding of selective hacking attacks and pseudoscandals to the US press. They've even managed to get the director of the FBI to do their stirring for them.

(Also, the Russian Navy is terrible and barely afloat, so clearly the Russians are going to do as much fighting as possible inland.)


Russian doctrine appears to be to overwhelm AEGIS et al with many, many missiles. After all, only one needs to get through to sink a 5 billion dollar (NOT including the aircraft and thousands of sailors on it!) carrier. Carriers are a prestige weapon now, like battleships in the 20th century: good for bullying brown people, useless in a "real" war. I don't see what the Zumwalt does about that.


Carriers are not useless for "real" war. Not sure where you got that idea. We could probably spend that money more effectively, but for what government program isn't that true?

And it would take more than one hit to sink a carrier. These are 100k+ ton ships, and the important bits are armored.


The DF-21 "Sunburn"[1] anti-ship ballistic missile:

carr[ies] a warhead big enough to inflict significant damage on a large vessel, providing the Chinese the capability of destroying a U.S. supercarrier in one strike.

Additionally, Ships currently have no defense against a ballistic missile attack.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21

[2] http://www.usni.org/news-and-features/chinese-kill-weapon


>The DF-21 "Sunburn"[1] anti-ship ballistic missile

Only the "D" version. It's a complex system that involves satellites, which can be shot down, and multiple communications links that can be attacked. And it's expensive, which is why they don't have many.

>Additionally, Ships currently have no defense against a ballistic missile attack.

This is wrong. All US CBGs have ballistic missile defense.


Well, that's not true. Many Aegis cruisers and destroyers are now armed with SM-3 missiles which are capable of anti-ballistic missile and anti-satellite.


> Not sure where you got that idea.

Like battleships, they are a big dumb target. The same way carriers and their aircraft made battleships obsolete modern anti-ship missiles have made carriers obsolete in a theoretical war between superpowers. Countries still covet them as a status symbol (or a way to spend taxpayer money), but I think that is about it.

> And it would take more than one hit to sink a carrier. These are 100k+ ton ships, and the important bits are armored.

That's why the Russian idea is to just bombard them with missiles until enough they poke enough holes in them to sink or disable them. It seems like a reasonable strategy to me.


>Like battleships, they are a big dumb target. The same way carriers and their aircraft made battleships obsolete modern anti-ship missiles have made carriers obsolete in a theoretical war between superpowers.

Yeah, except that's not actually true unless the war goes nuclear. Carriers are very well defended from air attack. The entire battle group is there to defend the carrier, which means aircraft-launched AA missiles, hundreds of SM-2s, plus point defense. Plus ECM and EM-type weapons.

And that's assuming US forces aren't able to destroy any launch platforms, which is probably not a good assumption at this point. It's much harder to pull of a surprise attack than it used to be.

>That's why the Russian idea is to just bombard them with missiles until enough they poke enough holes in them to sink or disable them. It seems like a reasonable strategy to me.

Yeah, that's pretty much the strategy everyone's been using since they switched from boarding actions to guns in the 1500s.

The Russians can't actually mount that kind of attack any more without telegraphing it in a big way, since it would take nearly every remaining conventional bomber and naval asset in the Russian military to ensure success. Nobody else is capable at all unless the scenario posits a US carrier in shallow water off the coast of Shanghai.

I'm not saying carriers are invulnerable. They're not. People make mistakes, and sometimes they're fatal. There are always variables that are impossible to evaluate without knowing the absolute latest top secret stuff. But a carrier group in the open ocean is a tough nut to crack, especially from the air, and attackers make mistakes too. It's far from obsolete.


> But a carrier group in the open ocean is a tough nut to crack

Well, that hints at the point, doesn't it? No, Russia or China, or whoever the US Navy Brass dreams about re-fighting the battle of Leyte gulf with again, isn't going to try to hit a US carrier group in the middle of the South Pacific. They are probably perfectly happy with preventing said carrier group from parking outside Archangelsk, the Baltic Sea, the South China sea or wherever it is that they want to flex their military muscle..


Well, here's the thing. A carrier group can attack from blue water. You can play around with scenarios, but the US navy is not going to give adversaries an easy victory by coming too close to land.


Sure. But if the carrier group is "projecting power" in the middle of the ocean, who cares? Get close enough to shore so it can project its power over some militarily interesting area, and it starts to get in range of all kinds of scary weaponry. Assuming a technologically advanced adversary, and not a bunch of goons with Ak-47's and RPG's, of course.

So in the end I guess the question is whether a carrier group is a cost-effective power projection tool in the age of supersonic (or even ballistic, if we choose to believe those Chinese things are real) anti-ship missiles, submarines and whatnot. Or are they just like battleships in WWII?


>Sure. But if the carrier group is "projecting power" in the middle of the ocean, who cares?

A CBG can hit hardened targets from a thousand miles away.


Meh. You just have to keep the carrier far away. Anti-ship ballistic missiles FTW.


Anti-ballistic missiles FTW.


Sure. They'll be reliable any day now.


Don't confuse the SM-3 with whatever the USAF is calling its thing today.


Quantity has a quality all its own.


Absolutely, which is why it's a good thing the US has many more ABMs than China has DF-21Ds.


They don't need to have more warheads, they just need to have more decoys and countermeasures than we have warheads.


As far as I know the DF-21D doesn't have decoys. It doesn't have a MIRV bus, so they won't be easy to add, either.


Do you have citations for that?


>We need to deter a resurgent Russia and China.

. . . as if that has EVER worked. . .


You're getting down voted. Given that both China and Russia are currently well into extensive land/sea grabs and Russia is backing the opposition in a war the US is sponsoring (And not losing currently) I am unsure why.


It's a surface ship, so it doesn't have a prayer against a submarine. Russia, China, and any hypothetical technologically sophisticated foe all have submarines.


It most definitely has a prayer against a submarine. A carrier is never alone; it's always protected by a fleet that keeps an eye out for any threats, including submarines.

That said, diesel-electric subs are definitely a weak spot for a carrier group.


The US military leadership presumably intends to use them to re-fight the Pacific island-hopping campaign of WWII, except this time against China instead of Japan. The "Pivot to East Asia" starting in 2012 was the first step. They see the current Middle East conflicts as a minor distraction and are preparing for a major war in a couple decades. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail.


The purpose of advanced weapons, in the context of a frenemy like China, is not to prepare for war but to prevent the temptation of war: deterrence.

The "pivot to Asia" is primarily economic, which is why President Obama has pushed the TPP so hard.

For the last 50 years (at least) the oil in the Middle East has been crucial to American economic security. That is rapidly becoming no longer true because of fracking, renewables, and improving efficiency. Oil is decoupling from U.S. economic growth, so the U.S. can (somewhat) decouple from the Middle East.

So if oil is not going to be the limiting factor on future U.S. economic growth, what will be? Technology and trade are good bets, and Asia is ripe for enormous growth in both.


In this fever dream, do they not expect China, if pressed, to use nuclear weapons?


Additionally, won't most of the efforts & impact be cyber security?

The ole "what good is an army with no orders"


> They're useless and expensive, and utterly unproven in anything like combat.

They're unproven because they're new. They apparently put a bunch of new tech on them, in order to prove them. Proven tech doesn't magically drop out of the sky, you've got to build and test it first. And as far as I understand it, that's what the Zumwalt class is for.

I'm not saying they're good or an efficient use of money, I'm just pointing out that the "unproven" argument is out of place here. You need to start somewhere to prove them, or you'll forever end up using yesterday's technology. (Though I admit yesterday's military technology is looking pretty good these days.)


>They're useless and expensive, and utterly unproven in anything like combat.

Well... yeah. That's true of every new ship design. Well, not the useless part. This ship isn't useless either, though you can certainly make the case it's too expensive for what it does.


>Zumwalt's more of a technology demonstrator.

The navy originally planed 32 ships, so it was definitely not intended to be a demonstrator.


Pretty sure the parent was talking about USS Zumwalt specifically, not the Zumwalt class as a whole. It's not unreasonable to consider the first hull a demonstrator at this point. There'd be countless improvements made as the class design matured over the course of a 32 hull production run.


What are the chances that the rail guns will ever be installed if they can't even afford bullets for the regular guns?


Isn't the point of rail guns that you can use any lump of feromagnetic material and it gets so mich kinetic energy that no explosives are needed? If yes, then those bullets should be really really cheap.


Rail guns have a significant issue (which doesn't appear to have been overcome yet[1], unless they're just playing misdirection) that's fairly fundamental: the gun wastes a lot of energy on tearing itself apart. The rails would much prefer to crash into each other spectacularly than to send the projectile anywhere, and you have metal turning to plasma everywhere there is contact.

It seems fairly feasible to fix the energy usage by just throwing more energy at it (and the Zumwalt demonstrates that capacity is relatively portable), but the wear on these things is going to be a massive cost even if they reduce the problem 10x from where it is now.

[1]: http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a21174/navy...


>can use any lump of feromagnetic material and it gets so mich kinetic energy that no explosives are needed? If yes, then those bullets should be really really cheap.

it isn't explosives that costs money. A typical $3K "dumb" bomb is made "smart" by bolting-on $25K JDAM guidance kit. When Lockheed Martin is done with that "lump of feromagnetic material" you'll wish it was made of gold instead :)


No, the rail-gun projectile will be a fairly sophisticated thing. It has to have a guidance system to be able to hit things at long range, so it includes a lot of electronics. (Similar, in fact, to the projectile in the article we are commenting on now.)

But the projectile is not the most tricky part. The plan is to develop a single "hypervelocity projectile" which can be fired by both chemical and rail guns, so it seems likely that that part will work out.

The rail gun itself needs a lot more research and development to get to a usable form. See e.g. this rather pessimistic article[0]. Meanwhile, the Navy doesn't care enough about the Zuwalt guns to even buy ammunition for them. How much will they spend on building a better gun?

[0] http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/06/can-navys-elect...


Heard a comment from a recently deployed logistics guy: "A great projectile for a rail gun would be a used-up double-A battery - we always have plenty of those."


It's not that they can't afford shells (and they're shells, not bullets) for the guns. It just doesn't make sense. If they'd built the original 22 ships and ordered ten thousand shells the per-shell cost would be much lower.

But since the entire advantage of artillery is having the ability to put rounds on targets more cheaply than other methods, once you're paying $800k for a round you may as well use aircraft or missiles.

The railgun will probably get deployed just because it gives them capabilities far beyond AGS. It will have almost double the range and, in theory anyway, could be used against land, surface, and air targets (including ballistic missiles).


But the only ship that can carry it is the Zumwalt, there are only three of them (so the price per gun or round will be enormous), they have very little capability against air targets (because this was deleted from the Zumwalt in a previous cost-saving measure).

So a rail gun on the Zumwalt would basically do the same thing as the AGS. It would maybe have longer range, depending on how many megajoules they can make the gun output, this is still an open problem. And the magazine would have space for twice as many rounds, since they don't need to store the propellant. Given that the Navy apparently just decided that they don't even want the AGS, I don't think they care at all about the capabilities they'd get by installing railguns on the Zumwalts.

They may still install it as basically a pure research project, but if money is tight...


The AA capability of the railgun was "deleted"? Where did you hear that?


No, of the Zumwalt destroyer. Originally it was to have a "dual band" radar (an S-band search radar and an X-band tracking radar) and the capability to fire Standard Missile-2, -3, and -6. Eventually, the S-band radar was deleted and the integration work to handle the Standard Missile was not done. When the Navy cancelled the Zumwalt orders to instead produce more Arleigh Burke destroyers, Raytheon offered to do additional work to integrate the Standard Missile, but the Navy was not interested, so now the only AA weapons it carries are Sea Sparrow missiles for self-defense. This is all from Wikipedia.


I can't imagine them not doing that integration work if they add the railgun. Even if we assume it's just a technology demonstrator, they'll want to know how well it works against missiles.

OTOH, only the third one is getting the railgun if it happens at all.


As far as I understand, they're closer to missiles than to bullets: explosive, have GPS, guided, etc.


Not to defend the exorbitant costs but its so typical of today's military as initial budgets are based on forecast purchases and fall apart quickly when programs get slashed.

happened to the stealth fighter too, but this one is absurd because of the ammunition cost and ship costs combined. maybe that new fancy rail gun of theirs will save the Navy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proximity_fuze#Production is interesting because it shows how clearly mass production can save money on truly expensive items.

The US Navy is so out of control is costs its frightening and the truly sad part is no past President or predicted one will fix it


> One of the reasons why it is meant to be stealthy is so that it can go close to the shore.

That is one of the ironic features that sounds great but is totally impractical. The moment this thing starts launching shells all that stealth doesn't matter anymore. Be as radar stealthy as you want, the giant balls of fire and shockwaves will give you away in seconds ... less than seconds if the enemy radar tracks the shells. Counter-fire from land units could be inbound before your first shells land. So I doubt the ship will every fire whilst relying upon stealth. That confluence of conflicting features (stealth+artillery barrage) makes it difficult to wrap my head around exactly what this ship is meant to do.

These guns would have always needed cheap non-guided shells. Artillery isn't always about hitting targets or even destroying much of anything. Sometimes it is about area denial. A ship may shell the area behind a beach during landing to ensure the enemy cannot mobilize a defense. That's not killing the enemy but denying him the ability to move. In such cases volume and rate of fire matters far more than accuracy.


But area denial with shells that cost that much is just hilarious. You could watch the US national debt grow if a fleet of these ships started a barrage.


The Advanced Gun System/LRLAP have an effective range of over 80 nautical miles.[0][1] "Close to shore" is relative.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Gun_System

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Range_Land_Attack_Project...


The old heavy battleships would deliver 800lb shells 25 miles, using analog targeting and stabilizing computers. That was already way over the horizon. 80nm can get lots done.


Actually, a 1900 to 2700 lbs. shell (depending on type).


Yeah, I once heard the weight of the shells compared to "Volkswagens". Which isn't far from the truth: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Beetle


These are rocket-assisted, fin-gliding, GPS-guided high explosive rounds. The "cheaper old" rounds aren't cheap or old by anyone's standards, even the Americans'; they're just not bleeding edge.

Not to mention that there are future artillery technologies, rail guns etc, that the Navy is planning to install on these ships.


> The Zumwalt is not meant to be an "anti-air" ship, it was meant to be a replacement for battleships in the role of shelling land targets from sea

This is misleading.

The design of the Zumwalt class is multi-role, oriented around a few core missions: battle against surface ships, air defense, and naval gunfire support (e.g. "shelling land targets from sea"). Air defense capabilities aren't as prevalent in the Navy's vision for the Zumwalts today as they were when the class was first coming off the drawing board -- there was a time when the Navy would cheerfully say that Zumwalt-class ships would be able to shoot down ballistic missiles, a claim they don't make today. But anti-air is still part of the overall bag of roles the class is (theoretically) supposed to fulfill.

On the question of naval gunfire support, it's true that the Zumwalts are supposed to do that too. But that's complicated by the fact that the Navy, institutionally speaking, doesn't think of naval gunfire support as a mission that exists in the real world anymore. They believe that ground attack missiles have put an end to the days of ships firing guns at shore targets forever. So they have been noticeably unenthusiastic about including any gun capabilities on new ships, including the Zumwalts.

Congress and the Marine Corps disagree with this assessment, however, and Congress found a way to make the Navy pay attention to the subject by legally mandating the Navy to provide certain levels of gunfire support capability over time. The Zumwalts got guns as part of a deal that would allow the Navy to retire the previous ships they'd used to meet those requirements, the World War 2-era Iowa-class battleships.

The Navy had wanted to retire the Iowas pretty much from the moment they came out of mothballs in the 1980s, so they were willing to live with guns on the Zumwalts if that was the price of being able to do so. But the Zumwalts only ever had 6-inch (155mm) guns, as compared to the Iowas' 16-inch guns, so it's difficult to see them as a direct replacement in the gunfire support role. (The Navy argues that the increased accuracy of the Zumwalts' Advanced Gun System makes up for the decrease in weight of iron they can throw, but that's arguable.)

There's a decent discussion of the various issues in play in the naval gunfire debate on Wikipedia here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_naval_gunfire_su...


It's always interesting to think about what is going on in the world versus what people are writing about. It would be a shame to have this ship be basically unarmed (although in time of war the government could just order the delivery of the rounds and figure out fair compensation later) But for me the really interesting question is "What if this is a ruse?"

The gun that is supposed to be on the Zumwalt class cruisers is a railgun (http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a21174/navy...) which we last heard about in June of this year. Since that time there hasn't been a whole lot of news, except we did get the Zumwalt commissioned. We also saw some discussion about the Navy's 150kilowatt laser (http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post...) which would also be an excellent fit for the electrical capacity of the Zumwalt class.

So what is the chance that LRPS was there to throw others off the scent of what the real ordinance load of the Zumwalt might be? I agree its pretty low but the Zumwalt is one heck of a power plant to be driving around with guns powered by explosives.


Sadly, I doubt there's any subterfuge going on. The simplest reason is the must common reason today, the Pentagon has been captured by the defense contractors. Today, the damning word is "concurrency."

The F-35 can't fight. No matter what the Pentagon says, it simply is not combat operational today. It can't fire its gun. It can't track objects. And it's a dog in the air. Good thing that we put all our eggs in that basket, and the convinced all our allies to join us in this hand basket.

The USS Ford is $13 billion dollars, and has problems with it's electromagnetic catapults, it's dual-band radar (so bad, that the radar has been dropped on follow-on ships), and is way over budget, and full of preventable errors.

The Littoral Combat Ships are jokes. Made of aluminum with a modular bay that the Navy has recently dropped after deciding that this flagship feature was in the end impractical. The ships are underarmed, and in the official description of the Navy, "not survivable." Oh did I forget to mention that the LCS came out of a competition where the Navy decided to buy both competing designs, and both designs suck?

Then there's the Osprey that has notorious accident record, and then in deployment in actual combat it was discovered that it actually can't defend itself. (Shoot it from the front or the sides, because the only gun it might be carrying is in the back.)

Finally, the weirdest of all is the announced conversion of the UCLASS unmanned combat vehicle into a tanker.[1] Yes tankers, are important, but its at the expense of a next genertion combat platform in order support legacy Super Hornets, and the craptastic F-35. Maybe, just maybe, this is a ruse. But who knows?

[1] https://news.usni.org/2016/02/01/pentagon-to-navy-convert-uc...


Reading the accident list on wikipedia[1] doesn't seem very drastic given the service life of the first versions for a new class of aircraft. Just look at the harrier list [2]. Doesn't sound like a version 2 would be unwarranted.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accidents_and_incidents_involv... 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Harrier_Jump_Jet_famil...


>The F-35 can't fight. No matter what the Pentagon says, it simply is not combat operational today. It can't fire its gun.

I wish people would stop going on about the gun. The gun doesn't matter. It shouldn't be there at all. Eventually they'll fix the software, and the gun will work, and it still won't matter.


Not sure why you were downvoted, but for a reference on why fighter aircraft need guns, this story about the F-8 might be informative: http://www.airspacemag.com/history-of-flight/11_on2015-f8-cr...


Yes, that was true sixty years ago.

The gun on the A version has three seconds worth of ammo, and that's only true because it takes a second to spin up. It's an anachronism.


"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.

This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement. We pay for a single fighter with a half-million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people. . . . This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron."

-- President Eisenhower, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chance_for_Peace_speech

(Adjust for inflation; insert your own cost substitute for the $800,000 artillery shells. Eight Teslas? Solar panels for 160 homes?)

One of the paradoxes of the Cold War was that it led to talk of disarmament, multilateral or otherwise. It seems that will to talk has been lost.

One of the paradoxes of the Iraq War was not only the spending of multi-million-dollar munitions to destroy civilian buildings occupied by enemy infantry, but the need to spend the same money again to rebuild the buildings in an attempt to rebuild the peace.

(I don't know whether there's any building which was rebuilt by the coalition only to be blown up by the coalition again, but perhaps there's such an example in Mosul.)


> Eight Teslas?

That makes it seem like less money than it is. Try:

- 4 Modern Homes in the USA

- 50 Ford Fiestas.

- 333 new 15" Macbook Pros

- 16,000 Kindle Fire Tablets (!)

- 80,000 Acres of Rainforest (or, y'know, a days worth - https://www.rainforesttrust.org/10-for-1/)

- 800,000 lbs of potatoes

- Bread to feed one person for 1,900 years (or I guess, 1,900 people for 1 year each)


But that is for 1 shell.


I work in an adjacent building to where they developed the Laser Weapon System (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0DbgNju2wE). It seems like the Navy and military in general is moving toward no bullets.

Though I have no idea how expensive it is to fire a massive laser compared to older weapons.


If they just cover it in Elon Musk's roof tiles it'll pay for itself!


From the title, I was expecting a gun that shoots e.g. puffs of compressed air.



See also Tyler Rogoway's excellent article on the numerous other design flaws in the DDG-1000 Zumwalt class destroyers.

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/5343/the-navys-new-stea...

It was designed to operate close to hostile shores, yet its stealth features were compromised, and it has no long-range air defense or CIWS.


first thought:

  "hit targets 80 miles away at $800,000 / round."
$10k/mile.... move the ships closer and get less expensive ammo?

second:

  "The official added that there was no sense the contractor was overcharging or anything.”
Really?


The whole point of the Zumwalt and her sister ships is that they are stealthy and can do pinpoint strikes, especially in support of special forces. They're suppose to operate alone. Getting them closer to shore makes it that much easier to detect and fire on. If the rounds are as precise as they claim, then $800,000 / round is a bargain. For reference, a Tomahawk costs $1.4 million and has a much slower reaction time.


I dunno if it's that much of a bargain. A Tomahawk carries a 1000 lbs. warhead. These shells weigh a total of like 225 lbs., of which 25 lbs. or so is explosives.


This is a precision weapon (take out a building or a bunker) so a massive warhead is not the point. Its for Marine support


Well a Tomahawk is also a precision weapon, which can take out a single building.


You can take out a bunker or a building with precision, without naval assets, or a railgun.


Are there any alternatives with the same reaction time though?


It would be cheaper to just have drones or manned craft nearby, waiting to fire. It would be cheaper to just have a missile boat ready to fire a tomahawk. It's not as though we're short on options of ways to deliver ordinance on a target. What we're short of are good reasons to do so, that aren't concocted for the worst possible reasons.

Think about it... what was the last war we actually needed to be involved in?


world war 2, also korea. I guess you could count vietnam if you think of it as a proxy war between the US and russia (same with us supporting the afghans back in the 70s). Oh, also the iraq war in 1991. The second one not so much. Afghanistan post 9/11 was probably needed, although we messed it up.

but overall warfare isn't really about the price of the tools used, especially when the US spends more than the next 5 countries combined. Our strategy is and has been to outspend our enemies and maintain military advantage through sheer economic attrition.


Korea, I'd say was the last, and frankly that was pretty murky. Iraq in '91 I disagree with, but I can see the argument for it. '91 Iraq though showed the kind of adversary we faced though... and that was no adversary at all. Afghanistan sure as hell didn't require our failed invasion, and hopefully has shown us that outspending people with surplus AK's, in caves, is a bad idea.

As for outspending, we're doing that, and as a result we're basically killing our economy. How many trillions can we flush down the desert before we start to look like Russia after economic collapse?


there is a very strong argument to be made that the US's complete domination of the iraqi's in 1991 directly led to the fall of the soviet union because it showed how strong the US had become since the end of the vietnam war and made it very clear to the russian people that the US would win any non-nuclear confrontation with them.

Iraq was considered a top-tier military force at the time and we went through them like a knife through butter. This is especially important because just 2 years earlier the soviets had finished their withdrawal from afghanistan after suffering a humiliating and demoralizing defeat.


What it all boils down to is the kind of war you expect to fight. Over a prolonged shore engagement the Zumwalt guns will be far cheaper than Tomahawks, for a lot of reasons. But they're a pretty specialized tool - at shorter ranges the old 5"/62s would have done the job, and missiles will still be required for longer ranges.


The costs have escalated because the number of ships that would carry these guns and need this ammo has been reduced.

The R&D costs are fixed, and now those have to be amortized over fewer ships with fewer rounds.


"Just move the X closer and get less expensive ammo" is on its own an almost bottomless argument. I'm going to presume you're reasonable and don't think we should replace bombers with hordes of people on motorcycles throwing grenades.

A lot of the same differences show up here too: safer for the ships involved, vastly faster reaction time, precision.


Hordes of low tech guys on bikes, on foot and in cars gave the US et al one hell of of a bloody nose in Iraq and Afghanistan. Assuming your enemy will fight like you do is a bad idea.


A ship can only be moved so close to inland targets.


It's easy to decide that things you don't understand enough to have reasonable opinions on are unreasonable, but it's not terribly useful to actually exploring the real-world problems.

I admit, I am assuming you don't know much, if anything, about building modern high-precision ammunition for guns meant to mount on warships.


$800K per round seems a bit off - that would be half the current price of a Tomahawk cruise missile. This https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M982_Excalibur would be a good comparison and it costs about $80K.

I remember when i first learned about these guns it looked to me like somebody decided to go for a money saving trade-off - land attack with weaker round at shorted distance at supposedly cheaper price per round than a cruise missile. Looking at that one, i can't help to remember another trade-off - to save money F-35 engines aren't made stealth ...


The price likely includes R&D costs - the contractor needs to recoup those, and they are fixed, so the fewer rounds you buy, the more expensive each one is.


The article you linked to cites a price of about $250k per round, not $80k/rd, and the government is apparently buying over 7000 rounds. Given the lower purchase quantity and similar technology, a 3x increase for the new round seems believable.

I mean, it's still crazy to be spending so much per round, but it's believable.


It's probably all tooling costs. We are spending X + 80k/rd, and the counting looks different even if the cost's don't really change.


you're right. Inflation though :) Looking at the history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M982_Excalibur#History - it was well under under $100K in the first years. In that 2015 order of 7.5K units the program cost is $2B with the procurement cost is $790K - looks strange with that $1B+ tucked on that late.


> There was no requirement for the AGS to strike seagoing targets, and the system does not have the programming to do so. But the big guns could be adapted to target ships if necessary, the Navy official said. “We would have to do the software modifications to make that work.”

The new gun can't shoot at other ships....


Well, this is not absurd after all. Less ships, less ammo, ammo cost per unit is higher.

If the ships and weapons are performing as specified and there were no significant delays, that's a successful program.


> Even at $800,000 a copy, the LRLAP’s price could go higher.

Lockheed Martin, no surprise there.

I wonder what it would cost China or Russia to produce something similar.


A lot less, since we just did their R&D for them.


That depends on how much of our designs they manage to steal.


Russia is one of the few countries other than the US with a 100% native war industry so I imagine they would get good bang for their buck. US would too if the military-industrial complex didn't have such a good grasp on the nation's purse strings.


A 4B warship but you can't afford 800K per shell. If we built stuff like that in WW2 we'd all be speaking Japanese.


It'd probably be more cost-effective to pay 80 enemy combatants a $10k signing bonus to switch sides!



We also did this in Afghanistan. Exchanging viagra for tips.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1101874/U-S-gives-Vi...


Always true in recent wars. $100B/yr in Afghanistan, could pay off almost every combatant for a fraction.


Most of the combatants are doing it for the money. Plenty of articles on dads planting roadside bombs for a payoff. I don't believe these folks care where the payoff comes from. So we could easily just pay it but we will never do so because it makes too much sense.


Mush of the roams went back into US corporations though. However there is a fairly high chance that the same arms companies would have benefitted had a "paying off the locals" strategy been undertaken.


I wonder how much of the Zumwalt reduction is due to diverting money to the F-35.


To be fair: as much of a debacle as the 35 is, the Zumwalt has a range of 0-35 km while the f-35 has a range of 0-(what like 1000km).


Zumwalt can fire the Tomahawk (ironically enough) which has a range of 2,500 km.


So can a destroyer from the 60s


And so can a barge in principle.


$800k a round what are they smoking?


How much do you think munitions usually costs? The Javelin missile already cost a tenth of that, and that's a weapon carried and used by a single soldier (well pair I think usually) with a range of just a couple of km. This is a weapon used on a ship of 140 people with a range of tens of km.


The United States government pissing our money away as usual.


Not pissing it, funneling it. Pissing implies waste, while this is all about some people making profits, and others retaining political power.


Misleading headline


Lacking in this conversation so far is the absurdity of yet another "precision ground attack" platform, when there are already ship / submarine / air land launched cruise missiles, air launched guided bombs from (supposedly) stealthy fighters, and in a pinch short-range SLBMs or SRBMs. They might have cost disadvantages compared to the theoretical marginal cost of the Zumwalt rounds, but I get the sense that the DoD is not exactly optimizing for cost.




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