Ask HN: What are the best arguments in favor of a UBI?

[liamcardenas]

Hello all!

I am writing an article about the Universal Basic Income. I come from a libertarian background and, therefore, am naturally biased against it. My goal, however, is to represent the argument for it as fairly as possible.

I have done quite a bit of research on the matter already, but I wanted to know what you guys think are its best justifications. I would hate to mischaracterize it or "conveniently" leave out facts that are not in line with my world view.

I greatly appreciate the help!

[11thEarlOfMar]

UBI has the potential to dramatically reduce economic desperstion. Desperation is what drives many into crime, substance abuse and leads to failing families. Reduce desperation, and we'll all be safer, even liberterians.

If your research has led you to hard data and proper science yielding causal conclusions, many of us on HN are very interested in seeing it, so be sure to include it in your paper. If not, then the discussion will remain hypothetical. Might be best to hold out for the Swiss, Dutch, Finnish or YC Research's own study to yield conclusive results before reaching your own conclusions.

[liamcardenas → 11thEarlOfMar]

> If your research has led you to hard data and proper science yielding causal conclusions, many of us on HN are very interested in seeing it, so be sure to include it in your paper. If not, then the discussion will remain hypothetical.

I certainly am not going to establish a causal relationship between UBI and a given economic outcome! :) This article will be more hypothetical since neither side has a particularly good empirical case (due to lack of studies).

Your appreciation for UBI must come from some sort of theoretical argument, does it not? If so, would you be willing to change your mind if your underlying assumptions were challenged?

P.S. My goal is not to convert you or anyone else to be against UBI.

[11thEarlOfMar → liamcardenas]

I don't have an argument, really. I believe that people collecting a ubi payment would, more often than not, choose to work and not laze their life away. The archetype for me is a family of four where the parents' only option for employment is minimum wage jobs.

Add a ubi to that and they can then provide a much better environment for raising their kids. I believe this would reduce the number of broken homes and improve the outcome for the kids, reducing drug abuse and crime, and enabling a higher level of education.

It's a theory based on personal belief. I have no conclusive evidence, only hope at this point. These studies should provide some answers.

[Mz]

I seriously doubt you will really get the info you need from tossing this question out there on this forum.

The people who are for the UBI tend to see the world differently from the people who are against it. They look at the same data and draw different conclusions.

I have written a few anti UBI pieces. I have had someone tell me "The data for when they have tried it is all positive" or whatever. But, then they link me to trials that I find unconvincing. If you have a UBI trial that involves just one small town and there is intent from the start that it will have a limited duration, you will get different human behavior than if you genuinely try to implement some kind of guaranteed security.

Every historical attempt that I am personally familiar with where they tried to promise universal security has failed. These historical attempts were not called Universal Basic Income. They had names like communism -- the idea being we would all live communally and the community came first and took care of everyone. The result in every real world trial I know of for promising some kind of baseline security to all members of the group is that too many people decide to just be freeloaders and not do fuck all, since they won't starve if they don't do a damn thing.

I have blogged about this from an anti-UBI perspective. It has not been well received. I am not sure I am going to bother to keep blogging about it because I am not convinced it matters. I am skeptical that it will ever actually happen and, if it does, it will likely fail in short order, like all previous attempts.

The only question is whether the failure will cause so much widespread harm that I need to care or not. It might make more sense for me to just keep on keeping on with trying to solve my own substantial personal problems that most people don't give a fuck about, while continuing to light one small candle where I can for helping others currently suffering due to the issues out in the world today.

You might find better answers by either searching Hacker News for previous discussions of the UBI or searching the web. A lot of people are for it. You can easily find their arguments in various places and that might be more helpful than what you are likely to get for answers here.

Best of luck.

[liamcardenas → Mz]

Trust me, I know exactly what you mean.

I am more concerned with more specific questions pertaining to UBI. For instance, "Does UBI fix _____ compared to means-tested welfare?" or, most likely what my article will be about, "Do we need UBI because robots will take all of our jobs?"

I believe that those who favor UBI can still appreciate that a particular argument is invalid-- although the idea as a whole may not be. Of course in order to do this, the article must fairly represent both sides.

But yeah... I'm not trying to convert people to be against UBI. That would be hopeless.

[Mz → liamcardenas]

You might want to check my blog for past posts about this.

We faced similar issues during industrialization. The conflict led to unions and the 40 hour work week.

Also, someone really smart has to code those robots, repair them, etc. Automation won't fix all of that.

So, for that and various other reasons, I think the best answer here involves A) increased average education levels and B) further lightening the burden that paid work imposes on workers.

I think gig work done right is a big part of the answer for that. And the good news is that we are moving towards a gig economy, so I don't need to try to convince people to get on board with making that happen. Instead, I try to put out the word concerning specific things that work well, why I think they work well, how to do it, etc.

Anyway, you can check my personal blog and you are welcome to email me if you wish. I hope the world doesn't shoot itself in the foot too much, but I think some of the answers are already emerging. I worry less about this stuff than I used to.

No, robots will not take all our jobs. For every person that exists, they have needs that create the necessity of work. We need to rethink our relationship to work. Humans have successfully done so previously. That rethinking is, itself, work and it is a uniquely human kind of work, something robots cannot take from us.

[liamcardenas → Mz]

Excellent! I have actually seen your blog on HN before. We will be in touch.

I'm not too worried about the future of the world anymore either. Even if the there is wide adoption of UBI (or even more radical socialist ideas), it is not likely sustainable and, in the long-run, humanity will be fine.