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I think the unfortunate reality is that we're going to have to go through a major, catastrophic climate change event before the narrative of the American right (which is by far the most vocal denier of climate change) changes and we can start making some progress in reversing it.

I only hope that whatever event(s) trigger this policy change are somewhat reversible. Earth is, ironically, going to be the first testbed for terraforming technology.




Honestly - the American right are not what concerns me - it's China, etc which seems to be gladly pumping out more and more CO2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_di...

We can hide behind per-capita stats but the global CO2 level and climate does not care about per capita.


At least China is at least giving lip service to caring about CO2 reductions:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/30/china-car...

Every single Republican candidate for president was openly mocking Obama when he was in Paris a few months ago for the climate talks. They're an absolute embarrassment:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/republicans-obama-clim...


So many people point to politicians as the problem, but remember the people who keep them in power. Politicians are just people who play the numbers, which is exactly how a republic is supposed to operate.


Yes that's correct and it works assuming the population is accurately informed. There's been a huge propoganda push against the idea of human caused climate change. And it's largely worked. I'm sure many of the politicians even believe it.


I think it has a lot more to do with moneyed interests who would lose out on climate-change regulation than with a tremendous bloc of voters who will not support a candidate who believes climate change is real.


This might show that the Chinese government is more politically savvy than US Republicans, which is disappointing but hardly a surprise. :-)

It does not show that the Chinese government is actually going to change anything substantive.


Saying ISIS is a bigger threat to the global world than climate change is....embarrassing? Innocent people are being blown up and their heads are being cut off at this instant because of ISIS. They are committing a genocide at this very minute.


How many people per year would you estimate ISIS kills?

Is it more than 150,000 people [1]? Because that's how many people the WHO estimates currently die right now as a result of climate change. And the number is expected to go up to 250,000 by 2030-2050 [2].

Other estimates have been even higher, e.g. [3] which came up with 400,000 extra deaths due to climate change per year already.

[1] http://www.who.int/heli/risks/climate/climatechange/en/

[2] http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs266/en/

[3] http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/27/climate-cha...


Thanks for the links. I'll read them later in full. Off the bat: “That estimate includes deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions, which may be occurring with increased frequency.” May being the keyword there. Also, if the argument is more rainfall and temperatures contributing to spread of disease, does it estimate the ability to harvest more, or for longer periods in cooler climates? Not to belittle the warnings and data presented, but to look for the positive in the negative.


The GP poster is right--the threat to the average person from terrorism, from all sources, is tiny compared to, say, the risk due to extreme weather....or getting hit by a bus when crossing the street. Humans don't tend to respond rationally to fear, and tend to over exaggerate the risks of shocking things like death from terrorism. It is so common that some people came up with the idea of micromorts, so that one can reliably compare risks of unrelated items. Terrorism results in pretty tiny micromorts compared to, say, getting stuck by lightening.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort


250k and 400k would still be a long way off the current top 10: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/

The places most affected by climate change already have terrible health: http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/ncd/mortal...


And yet, with the record levels of climate emissions, billions of people are living longer and healthier due to cheaper energy costs that keep them warm and fed at low cost.

Why is the global world living longer despite its ever increasing usage of fossil fuels? Just to take one example, China's life expectancy has grown increasingly despite having record levels of pollution. You would think that more and more people would die as fossil fuels increase. Something doesn't connect here. Care to explain the conundrum for me?

ISIS having their hands on a nuke would be catastrophic.


Isis getting a nuke is quite far fetched. What is a bigger danger is one of the terrorist groups in Pakistan (which actually has nuclear weapons) getting a nuke. Or India & Pakistan having a nuclear exchange. Or one of the wars in the Middle East leading to Israel or the USA to use the nuclear weapons they have ready there (which they continually threaten). Nuclear war is one of the scariest things we face and could destroy us instantly, it's a small chance but a possibility.

However climate change is definitely already happening and is potentially also devastating for the survival of the species. It could itself ignite a number of conflicts, we have no idea what will happen, but we know it could be very bad.


>>> ... "which they continually threaten"

Can you cite an instance in any reputable broadsheet where Israel has officially threatened to use nuclear weapons?

Misstatements not challenged quickly, too often become the "truth".


Actually since Israel's nuclear weapons are a secret they are not continually threatening to use them, however the US is a different story. There are US nuclear weapons present in every war and the threats are made with statements like, "no option is off the table", and by looking at official policy, which maintains the option of a first nuclear strike.


ISIS is terrible, but it's a local problem, not a global one.


Also, it's not a problem that threatens the continued existence of human life on Earth.


I've seen zero evidence, even with the most extreme climate models, that human existance is threatened.

Saying stuff like that feeds right into the deniers.


I did exaggerate, sorry. There is some credible possibility of this happen, but our current models don't predict it. [1] I think it is fair to say that climate change could be very disruptive to civilization. Eg, it could cause famines, refugee crises, collapse of some societies, etc.

[1] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/426608/how-likely-is-a-ru...


There is plenty of evidence China is working hard to close their dirty power generation plants and move to clean energy.

Here's something from late 2015:

China is totally crushing the U.S. on renewable energy http://grist.org/climate-energy/china-is-totally-crushing-th...

Here's one that is just a month old:

China set to surpass its climate targets as renewables soar https://www.newscientist.com/article/2079179-china-set-to-su...


I would note that the graph does not show what the headline indicates.

The graph BNEF prepared shows carbon emissions ~tripling from 2012 to 2040, due to substantial growth in non-OECD coal & gas consumption, which swamps the drop in these categories for OECD countries.


From the second link:

Meanwhile, its consumption of coal – the dirtiest of the fossil fuels – dropped by 3.7 per cent, with imports down by a substantial 30 per cent.

The country’s solar and wind energy capacity soared last year by 74 and 34 per cent respectively compared with 2014, according to figures issued by China’s National Bureau of Statistics yesterday.

The latest figures state that “clean energy” – a combination of hydro, wind, solar, nuclear and natural gas – now accounts for 18 per cent of all its energy, up from 13 per cent in 2011.

Such rapid changes in how energy generation in China is changing suggests to me, that graph projecting non-OECD CO2 emission is most likely be wrong and overly pessimistic.


I'm not worried about China at all, their leadership has a far better chance of listening to science and acting appropriately. As they grow their standard of living it will be using less carbon intensive methods.

Meanwhile, the US is far too entrenched with ideology and vested interests that have captured the political machinery.

Kind of sad that we're in this state, but people keep voting Republican...


You should care about china if you care about CO2 levels. US CO2 levels are already going down, china's are accelerating up:

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/27/a-fresh-look-at...


I'm not an expert, but from what I've read China's emissions growth has slowed dramatically, possibly even stalled. Here's a report from a few months ago: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-26/china-s-ma...

This could be primarily because of the economic slowdown, but I've read other articles that report the change is more systemic and permanent as China seeks to lead in clean energy tech.


I care about China of course, I said I'm not "worried" about them. I'm not "worried" about those increasing emissions, that's completely expected, and better than what most people thought it would be in previous years.

Now, India, there I'm a bit worried....


What solutions are you proposing exactly to reverse climate change? The trillions in investment so far in clean energy have yielded minimal results. What specifically are you recommending?


If renewables did get trillions in investment this far, a reference would be nice, it wouldn't touch the subsidies fossil fuels receive annually at $5.3tn[0].

[0] IMF, How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies, 2015, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42940.0


Accounting for environmental damage is important, but if you calculate the subsidies like that, it isn't just the energy industry that gets subsidized (as would largely be the case with renewables), it's the consumers using the energy (they receive most of such subsidies).

So just to be clear: The $5.3 trillion is arrived at by counting untaxed environmental harm as a subsidy. Which I think it is interesting to consider the damage, but I don't think that is what people are going to think when they think energy subsidy.


No, this really is a subsidy to the fossil fuel industry: the amount they pay to obtain fossil fuels is less than the actual cost, which means they can sell them for prices which would be unprofitable if they paid for the environmental costs and for applications where they'd otherwise be replaced by other more environmentally-friendly options. The consumers definitely aren't the ones who are being subsidised here - they don't care where their energy is coming from, so the actual consumer benefit is only the difference between the cost of fossil fuels and the cost of the cheapest option if fossil fuel producers had to pay the full environmental price, minus the environmental harms to the consumers. (Which may well actually not be a net benefit to consumers at all.)


But consumers would have either had to pay extra for that $5.3 trillion expense, or not use as much energy. Figuring out where the blame should be placed is a bit of chicken and egg, but we're trying to point out that bandying questionable numbers around like this isn't helping the cause.


I think my point still stands in response to his argument, if you ignore post-tax subsidies. The pre-tax sum is $333bn in 2015 and $541bn in 2013. So would easily accumulate to trillions over a short number of years.

But I do think post-tax subsidies is a fair metric, for example, in places where there's state health care, my tax is being spent to care for people whose health has been affected by fossil fuels. So it seems like state subsidised to me.


My primary interest was pointing out how the number was calculated, I'm not real worried about characterizing it.


As I mentioned in my other reply to you (which happened at the same time) revenue neutral carbon tax, or the equivalent righty version which is cap and trade.

But really technology is going to drive this change, as long as the entrenched interests don't prevent the use of renewables that are cheaper than fossil fuels.

Already ideally sited solar and wind are cheaper than coal, and learning curves are pushing that down all the time.

Storage is also getting incredibly cheap, with lithium ion batteries it's around $0.08/kWh right now at the wholesale level.

What we're really going to need is efficient carbon capture schemes though, because the feet-draggers have cost us an extremely valuable 15 years. If we can do capture at something less than $500/ton then I'm starting to feel a bit optimistic that we can head off the worst of it.

But every. Single. Ton. That we emit right now is going to cost out children several times that amount. Improving efficiency of use and increasing the scale and efficiency of the renewable energy manufacturing is a massively important economic development for the US and the world.


The trouble with the idea that technology will drive this change is that it's just driving down the cost of fossil fuels to below the new technologies as countries like Saudi Arabia desperately try and make sure they sell all of their oil. In order to avoid global warming we need to leave fossil fuels in the ground and that's just not in the interest of fossil fuel producers, and because for a lot of those fuels extraction is a tiny portion of the price they can afford to undercut renewables all the way down the cost curve until the pumps run dry or the renewable energy manufacturers give up and go out of business.


Fuel costs are just one part of the infrastructure, as fuels get cheaper, capital costs will dominate. (And they already do for, say, cars where less than half of the per mile costs are for fuel.) At some point I believe the capital costs will be less for renewables than for any fossil fuel based system.

Of course if we were to price in the negative externalities, I think that renewables would already be cheaper. But this is one case where ideology has prevented us from setting up an efficient market for energy.


Except cap and trade programs have done nothing to prevent or curb climate change. Oil companies just buy carbon offsets and continue polluting. Solar still depends on billions in subsidies to be viable, as with many other renewable energy sources. Solar is also extremely inefficient. It costs around 8 times more to output the same energy compared to natural gas for example. We've already invested billions in solar, and we've barely made a dent on solar costs. Oil is very cheap and affordable to the poor, which explains their continued use in the developing world over renewable energy.


What carbon cap and trade programs? Is your contention that a cap and trade program could t reduce emissions? If it can't, then it's not a cap and trade program.

Your pricing information on renewables is out of date, and quickly becoming more out of date.

The renewable industry is changing fast, traditional energy industry changes slow. Those dinosaurs won't know what's hit them until it's too late.


Not 100% sure about this, but if you rely only on a pure market approach, then oil & coal will become cheaper & cheaper while they become less popular. Their demand will drop & so the price will go down.

The reality is that we must put an human mandated limit on the amount of carbon fuels to burn.

Think of it another way: If burning carbon fuels causes major instability in the climate, then the fate of the human race should not be determined by the amount of carbon in the ground. It should be determined by humans being determined.


Higher prices on carbon fuels would be the simplest solution. Cap and trade works. It's not perfect but it works. Creating property rights for the sky lets markets do their magic.

https://www3.epa.gov/captrade/documents/ctresults.pdf

"A 2003 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) study found that the Acid Rain Program accounted for the largest quantified human health benefits of any major federal regulatory program implemented in the last 10 years, with benefits exceeding costs by more than 40:1."

https://archive.epa.gov/clearskies/web/html/captrade.html


Are you insinuating that nothing can be done about climate change?


There are several examples in history of succumbing to hte logic "we need a single-party state in order to finally listen to scientists about the best way to run society!" It doesn't end well.

I suppose if the scientists were in charge, we'd finally stop burning fossil fuels? That we'd force massive changes to resource distribution and reshape society in order to save the world?

And if you don't agree, you're too dangerous, right? Off ot the gulags?

Do you understand that millions and millions of people would die of starvation?

It's amazing how eagerly people advocate for the right kind of totalitarianism.


Hah, that's not even remotely what I was asking for, and very weird that you would put totalitarianism as words in my mouth. Most unfair.

the way that parties change is that people stop voting for them. Any vote for such a stridently anti-science and anti-future party encourages them.

That said, this is my most important issue. Others will rank other issues higher, and vote on that basis. But it will be at least a decade after the Republican Party apologizes and corrects their science mistakes that I will trust them to vote for them.


Since when are any politicans forthright in correcting and apologizing for their mistakes? Barring prison or other legal woes, when was the last time the advocates of any government program awknowledged and sought to remedy the deleterious effects of their actions?


I don't read that epistasis was suggesting it's because they're a single party totalitarian state. It's because their elected officials aren't loudly proclaiming that climate change doesn't exist, regardless of how many parties there are.

Plenty of multi-party democracies have parties that somehow manage to agree on whether anthropogenic climate change exists and whether dinosaurs were real. America just isn't one of them.

We don't need a single party state, we need parties that aren't embarrassingly out of touch with how the world works. When your presidential candidates take pride in not believing things despite overwhelming evidence, you have a problem.


What's amazing is that people think questioning means you aren't scientific (and thus an idiot). Believing in science MEANS questioning everything.

Our society questions nothing. If we find it on the internet - it's true. Very few want to be a contrarian or go against what's popular at any given time for fear of others shaming them in mob-groups for having a different viewpoint.

We've entrusted too much credibility in people with science degrees and their models. I've done some interesting things with machine learning. It's extremely easy to develop predictive models that confirm what you want to confirm. That was probably the first thing I learned and if you aren't humble - you'll use a model as a crutch and be proved a fool.

Some of the greatest minds in history have been proven wrong. Science is not a democracy.

Our country isn't either but people forget that. They think 50+1 should dictate everything. Me-first.

If only they understood the other side - they could unite. But they haven't advanced beyond their tribalism and self-righteousness.


There is this scary video[1] done by NASA that shows the earth with the level of CO2 across a year. The CO2 from China goes right to SF... And then it goes crazy. You can also see why the amazon rainforest is named the lungs of the planet or in this video it looks more like the heart of our planet.

But China seems now to be really willing to reduce its impact on the planet. There are the huge investments on solar panels for instance.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUUo2tL8rvQ


The US right wing is providing China with a very convenient excuse.


China doesn't need anyone in the US to give it excuses, it can stand on its own logic.


American continents produce more CO2 than China. Much more.

Animal agriculture has around 51% CO2 footprint. Bunch of it done on the rich soils of Amazon, and vast plains of USA.

Meat, dairy and eggs is what is killing us. Not traffic, not heating.


Can you provide a link supporting your claim that animal agriculture has >50% of the CO2 footprint or that the American continents produce much more CO2 than China?

The first claim seems to be incorrect at least based on simple googling to obtain the following link: https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html

According to that link agriculture/land-use appears to have about 1/6 the impact of industrial processes/fossil fuel.

The second claim appears to be incorrect for "human produced" CO2 at least, using standard numbers. Perhaps there is another source?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_di...

Summing up the numbers there, I get the following results:

Annual CO2 Emissions:

(China): 10,540,000 kt

(USA + Canada + Mexico + Brazil + Argentina + Venezuala): 7,245,000 kt


http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/a0701e/a0701e00.HTM

Here's an 18% estimate while transportation is 13%.

Here's a 51% estimate, trumping everything else.

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/6294

I couldn't find the links for the second claim (its somewhere out there) but the ones provided don't account for animals, land use and rainforest elimination. All three are major factors of the animal agriculture.


Note that these links are talking about total greenhouse gas production, not just CO2 as was originally stated in pitchka's comment and questioned in mine. Pitchka's "18%/51%" estimates are not actually talking about literal CO2 output, but rather about general "GHG" (greenhouse gas) emissions, including gases like methane.


Based on these links which we traded, while you appear to be incorrect in your claims about literal CO2 emissions (which was what I originally commented on), perhaps what is more important is that you are correctly alluding to the effect of greenhouse gases besides CO2, such as methane.


eggs?


No climate change solution is complete without a serious discussion about nuclear power, which has been opposed by the American left historically.


the discussion has been opposed?


The American right is really a coalition of several different factions, and it can be chipped apart on certain issues. We see that today, with religious conservatives proposing state laws to discriminate against gay and transgender people, but many big businesses opposing those laws.

Maybe we could make progress more quickly on fighting climate change if we simply bought off businesses. Implement a carbon tax that replaces business income tax and results in a net lower tax burden on businesses (from day one), and I bet a lot of opposition funding would dry up.

It would be very expensive... but compare to the cost of protecting or moving all our coastal cities and communities.

Maybe one reason climate change has become a cultural/political issue is that the people who understand the issue best and have worked on it the hardest, tend to also be people who are suspicious of businesses in general. They resist anything that looks like a corporate giveaway, and prefer a regulatory, government-led approach. As a result, "freedom first" libertarian types have lined up with big businesses in opposition.

I won't pretend that I've thought through the details deeply--take this as a musing more than an actual proposal.


Policy is not going to fix this. Neither are politicians. We're trapped in an economic model which demands infinite growth. A system built principally on hydrocarbon energy. Modest improvements can be made to improve efficiencies (see Jevon's paradox), but we're in a treadmill to hell. You can't grow GDP without consuming more energy. We stop growing, the system will collapse. And you're never going to have a politician get elected on a platform of conservation. "You know all that wasteful consumption we've enjoyed since winning the second world war, you're going to have to do with less"

Like mold in a petri dish, the human population will collapse ultimately into decentralized anarchist societies who trade among one another. Assuming we stop the 400+ reactors from going into meltdown, the majority of the population will return to farming.

We're not going to Mars anytime soon. You people can't live without AC or even know how to grow a fucking tomato plant. Sadly, most of this community will die.


Like Hurricane Katrina or Hurricane Sandy? Or the streets of Miami flooding? I don't think anything is going to change a denier's minds if they don't want to. We just have to try and fix it without them.


This is an unintentionally great comment. When people claim that every weather event is caused by global warming, it's hard to take it those claims seriously.


You're saying that those hurricanes would not have been any less severe without the impact of humans messing with the atmosphere for the last century?

I'm not saying "global warming causes all the hurricanes", I'm saying "humans messing with the atmosphere has increased the variance and severity of our weather". If you don't agree with that, you're in willful denial.

Anyways, thanks for recognizing that my comment was great. I'll take what I can get.


Just one question, have you looked at the frequency of extreme weather events over the last century?

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/gw_hurricanes/fig33.jpg


Do we really think a century of data is a lot? Especially when you are talking about ~20 events per year?

Can you explain why 1850 looks comparable or worse than the 1990s and worse than 2010s so far? I don't see what this proves.

The inputs for "man's impact" in the 1850s would not come close to modern day. If we took that into account, by your logic, the bar charts should explode out the top! But it doesn't. Not even close.

1850 - 1.2B people 2010s - ~7B people and a lot more pollution

From your linked data, the impact of AGW on hurricanes over the last year = 0

Edit: I think you may agree with me that it doesn't point to more extreme weather events. If so - my comment is directed at the parent.


Yes to your 'EDIT'. If we can't even see increasing frequency of hurricanes, then how can we even begin to attribute things to AGW?


I'm saying "humans messing with the atmosphere has increased the variance and severity of our weather.

You should know that's a somewhat dated view. The scientific consensus is now much less certain about the link. See e.g. [1, p.7].

[1] http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FI...


>I'm not saying "global warming causes all the hurricanes",

That's exactly how you wrote it.

>Like Hurricane Katrina or Hurricane Sandy? Or the streets of Miami flooding?

It's a great example of what the problem is. If you aspire to being a great negative example, I guess that's your prerogative.


"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!"

-- Upton Sinclair


The problem, of course, is that the salaries of most supporters of the Republican party would not be impacted at all by most measures that would be taken to curtail emissions. The salaries of the leaders (and, more importantly, their backers) on the other hand...


You realize that cuts both ways, right?


s/without/despite/


I'm not sold on the AGW stuff the environmentalists put out, but their problem is positioning and they haven't grasped that in their battle.

Nobody is arguing climate change can have big impact. We're discussing AGW. Obviously deforestation and air pollution is a Bad Thing. The environmentalists would be better off telling that story which is quite simple and easy to understand.

I'm a buyer of that as both logic and an investment but not the Chicken-Little AGW story. Positioning is very important when you are selling something.

~7 million die from air pollution related deaths per year

Total number of people that die of starvation per year: ~8 million. ~900 million malnourished.

~800 million don't have access to clean water. Several millions die each year from diseases related to unsanitary water.

I don't understand why we can't unite and tackle those 3 instead of making it a battle between politics, environmentalism and self-righteousness (both sides).

If you believe or don't believe in AGW - tackling air pollution, food supply and the water crisis should be of utmost importance.


What if the left just figure out how many people to move into right leaning states to make a sweep?

The left has been the majority for a while, but not in charge because 1 person != 1 vote (2 senators / state regardless of population, no D.C. senator, electoral college system.. any more?)


It would be even easier if the left would just get off its collective butts and go vote.

Disproportionate representation is a problem, for sure, but the American left would have far more success despite that problem if only they would go vote in off-year elections.

Either way, I don't think it would help the fundamental problem, which is that roughly half of the voters in this country don't accept climate science, and their party and associated media have set up a huge feedback loop to keep it that way. Helping the Democrats isn't really a solution, because we need two healthy parties.


So long as a dangerously insane candidate is in danger of winning an election, the only ethical choice is to vote for the sane candidate most likely to win in any race.

Agree that we need multiple functional sane parties, but we haven't had that happy situation in the US for forty years.


I totally agree, you have to work within the framework you have, and in this case that means voting against the crazies. It just doesn't work very well. I don't claim to have any answers for what would work better, it's just that this particular answer is unsatisfying.


Well said Mike. I agree with you completely.

People just don't get that this could be a serious problem & that once you notice you have a problem, you've got 250 years of locked in effects.

Here's hoping that SolarCity, Tesla, and others can make a technological difference.


Another problem is you cannot vote Sanders without voting to keep the current abortion laws.

Many totally different questio ns meaning different things to different people.

To many people I guess voting is choosing the lesser evil.


The left has been the majority for a while

Really? So you're saying every person in America can be neatly defined as either right or left? That's odd because I know a lot of conservative folks who are for marriage equality and left-wing folks who love guns and are members of the NRA.


> So you're saying every person in America can be neatly defined as either right or left?

For hysterical raisins, the US has a basically permanent two-party system. Charitably speaking, you can be socially and economically either conservative or liberal, R or D.

There are some people who are economically conservative and socially liberal -- "do what you want, and leave me alone." There are others who are economically liberal and socially conservative -- "we should help the less fortunate, because that is what Christ and compassion demand." And there are plenty of other positions, but the only two real options are R and D. Tweaking the meanings of those two letters is your best bet.


you can be socially and economically either conservative or liberal, R or D.

That merely means voters are severely limited in their ways to express their opinion. It doesn't mean every person is reducible to a single bit.


That was more or less my point.


It will be handwaved away until the people with money and power are affected by it.

The irony being that people with money and power are the least likely to ever be affected by it.


Phase two will be "of course everyone always believed in climate change, we just disagreed on policies for addressing it".

Phase three will be "it was actually the liberals who blocked action on climate change"


This is meant to be a thought provoking question, not an attack:

What if the safety of the planet lay in stopping greenhouse emissions. But certain large blocs of the international community refused to stop pumping it out of the ground.

Now say diplomatic means don't create any real progress, only broken promises. For an example of what that might look like, take the nuclear accord John Kerry just got Iran to sign this year. Already they have tested new long range missiles and their leader, Khamenei, released a statement this week: "Those who say the future is in negotiations, not in missiles, are either ignorant or traitors," [0].

Seriously, what happens when those with fossil fuel reserved chose to use them, even when your country is being responsible? What if it meant another war in Iraq: would the positions on policy for fixing AGW swtich between Democrats and Republicans?

[0]: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-missiles-khamenei-idU...


it is an interesting question - would we go to war to prevent carbon release?

for me to have a position on the question would depend on the particulars.

A related thought - there aren't a ton of countries that have both large fossil fuel reserves and a large enough domestic market to burn them at a high rate. US and China are the only two that come to mind. Maybe Iran? Which implies that sanctions (either on the import of energy or the export of finished goods) might be effective if you can keep the US and China on board.


As long as people are flying private jets to climate conferences I cry foul.

If they want anyone to act they would do as the king of Nineveh:Jona 3:6 "For word came to the king of Nineveh, and he arose from his throne, and he laid his robe from him, and covered him with sackcloth, and sat in ashes."

The moment I see climate scientists starts to switch to teleconferences I think I will give it a second thought.

(Yeah. I know many, possibly most of you don't believe a thing of that but it is still a good example.)

(FWIW: I make a living making solar cell technology, I previously programmed recycling machines. I just happen to be tired of hypocrisy.)


A private jet releases something like 20 tons of CO2 per flight (depending on distance / type of jet / etc. etc.). The US Coal industry released 5.4 billion tons of CO2 last year. Each private jet flight then represents about 120 milliseconds of US Coal production. So yeah, Al Gore and Leo could (and should) cut out their private jet habit, but maybe we also should burn less coal?


The power of examples. Or: actions speak louder than words.

The very moment politicians start acting like there is a crisis, people will listen.

For now it all looks like a giant racketeering scheme to deprieve the small man of cheap energy and travel while the rich ones get richer.

Not saying it is like this, but think about it a moment before knee-jerkingly hitting the downvote button.

I'm in no position to judge the science behind this but I have a nose for fish and something stinks so badly I have a hard time crediting it all to right-wing nuts for now at least.


Yes, and this comment is exactly why the ice shelves are going to collapse before people decide it's worth doing something about it.

All in the guise of cheap energy. Hooray. Energy is cheap, until it becomes a lot more expensive.

Thanks for your lack of vision.


> Thanks for your lack of vision.

The commenter you're replying to is just saying what it appears the average person is thinking, not that they subscribe to it at all.


> I'm in no position to judge the science behind this And yet, you do.

Why do you imagine the politicians would be concerned with climate change? It's not like they or the rest of the oligarchy are going to be the ones affected.


I think you could say the same about most issues that politicians (attempt to) address. Were Nixon or Nancy Reagan ever trapped in the inner-cities deciminated by the results of their failed drug policy? Were generations of their families imprisoned as a result? Does George Bush ever have to worry about ISIS causing harm to himself or his family? Or an onslaught of immigrants on his family ranch? Will Diane Fienstein be spending her old age alone, unarmed, 30 miles from her nearest neighbors or other assistance? Unlikely.


Al Gore buys carbon offsets for his jet travel. Letting him do what he wants and still have a net carbon contribution that is 0.

Of course that depends on the people he pays for the carbon offsets actually reducing carbon emissions somewhere else in the world. It is easier to claim that you will than it is to actually do it.

(My bet is that within 10 years there will be a major scandal as someone in that space turns out to be a pure and simple scammer.)


Alas, I'm afraid accusations of hypocrisy don't make good flotation devices.


Nah, but it helps against getting fooled while we wait for them to either stop trying to fool me (not sure about this) or put their money where their mouth is.


Tu quoque. "Yeah, I'm not giving up smoking until my doctor does".


Good one.

Saw it was below 0 and upvoted you even though I guess "your side" is the one who is busy downvoting me.

Downvoters: can you please stop downvoting based on assumed political belief and start judging content based on quality? Please?


Yeah agreed, you are stating a position as it were fact, and using a ton of faulty logic.

So yes, your position is unpopular, and it's wrong.


I believe you're getting downvoted because the inconsistency in your logic has been pointed out, yet you're persisting with the argument.


It was not about me being downvoted, that is more or less a given, it was about the person replying to me getting downvoted although IMO his point was valid.


Ok, that's why I was confused; by the time I got to the thread, that person had been upvoted back in the black (perhaps due to your votes). Anyway, I love some good discourse. Thanks for contributing to the conversation.


What sort of solar cell tech are you working on?


Off grid, single household. Provide power for lamps, fan, radio, tv and best of all: usb socket for charging.

Often a direct replacement for kerosene solutions.


Sounds great. I just got back from Morocco. Amazed that in this land of endless cloudless days, they use kerosene lamps.

I'd like to help your efforts if possible. I write code. Nothing too amazing but have been at it a while. How can we connect over email?


They're the ones with all the beachfront homes, though...


Yes with insurance subsidised by the state.


Maybe when food crops fail consistently and farmers figure out that it wasn't God's wrath or the communists' or the terrorists' fault.


I kind of don't care about their opinion on a scientific matter. The real issue is building political coalitions to force their compliance through democratic legislation.


I mean, climate change deniers don't help. But people accepting, at least notionally, that it exists are not, as a rule, doing enough either.


What specific solutions are you recommending to reverse climate change? Ban fossil fuels? Force everyone to buy Teslas (which ironically depend on fossil fuels)?


There are sooooo many that have been proposed.

A revenue neutral carbon tax at about $80/ton is popular enough that oil companies use it in their planning for the future.

The "right" has favored cap and trade schemes in the past (specifically Reagan), but suddenly became allergic to the idea.

Your "solutions" are ridiculous anti-market solutions, presumably exaggerations that you would use to describe the solutions that have actually been proposed?

Also, Teslas and other electric vehicles do not depend on fossil fuels, even if they can potentially be powered by fossil fuels (at much higher efficiencies than fossil fuel vehicles)


>Also, Teslas and other electric vehicles do not depend on fossil fuels, even if they can potentially be powered by fossil fuels (at much higher efficiencies than fossil fuel vehicles)

Of course they do. They are made of materials that depend on fossil fuels for extraction. To pretend otherwise is completely idiotic. Everything that doesn't come from plants has to be mined and mining is energy intensive.


It's "completely idiotic" to think that mining can only be done with fossil fuels.

Energy is fungible. It doesn't matter if it's energy intensive, industry and mining can succeed without fossil fuels just fine.


Technically speaking all the plastic used is made from fossil fuels, but taking fossil fuels and turning them into something that we'll bury in holes in the ground instead of burning them probably isn't a bad thing when talking about global warming.


Show me a mine that currently runs without fossil fuels. Once we have haul trucks that are battery powered, then maybe there is something to discuss.


Is your entire contention that haul trucks Could not be run on electricity or on biofuels or on synthetic fuels?

These seem like very fragile assumptions.


What does energy have to do with fossil fuels?


There is no useful haul truck powered by batteries.


yet


I'm enjoying your exchange buts it's obvious the other side has a serious agenda to push, and it's not "let's realistically make the world better".

I just wanted to say that "don't let perfect be the enemy of good" seems to be a common tactic along with high levels of straw person arguments.


For the past 15 years or so, Germany has been pursuing an aggressive plan to switch entirely to renewable power, which includes building out lots of wind and solar. Some say it's not fast enough, but it's still pretty impressive, especially for a country so far from the equator. I think the country is around 30% renewable by now.

Bear in mind, this is absolutely necessary for the entire world at some point. Fossil fuels will not last forever. Best start now and not procrastinate.

In terms of specific policy to pursue: basically lots of subsidies.


Germans also pay 30 cents per kWh. There are projections it'll be 50 cents per kWh in the future. Renewable power is unfortunately expensive.


So are 1.2 trillion sandbags.

All the power in my camper is provided by solar energy. I paid maybe $500 for the system, including a lithium ion battery. It will provide power for the next 25 years for two people, using computers all day long and plenty of bright lights at night.

Solar power is hella cheap. People need to stop whining.


It is cheap because manufacturing was subsidised by cheaper dirty coal-fired electricity. Solar panels today are essentially overpriced batteries that require years of time and sunshine to discharge. 10 years ago most solar panels barely returned 50% of the energy expended to make them. At least we seems to be getting close to the breakeven point.

P.S. I really doubt that the panel will last 25 years, and the battery is likely to go poof even sooner.


The battery is Lifepo4 chemistry with a good solar controller from electrodacus.com. I typically drain to about 65% so these are considered shallow cycles.

I think the battery will go for 15 years & the panels too. So 25 years was a bit of a stretch but 15 years electricity for $500 was pretty OK.

Solar energy really is cheap.

There are many parts of the world where it makes the most financial sense.


Lol Do people EVER follow-up after feel good policies to see how they worked out? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-14/coal-rises...


What does that have to do with the GP's comment? Neither coal nor nuclear are classified as renewable.




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