This is an unintentionally great comment. When people claim that every weather e...

joeld42 · on March 30, 2016

You're saying that those hurricanes would not have been any less severe without the impact of humans messing with the atmosphere for the last century?

I'm not saying "global warming causes all the hurricanes", I'm saying "humans messing with the atmosphere has increased the variance and severity of our weather". If you don't agree with that, you're in willful denial.

Anyways, thanks for recognizing that my comment was great. I'll take what I can get.

tsax · on March 31, 2016

Just one question, have you looked at the frequency of extreme weather events over the last century?

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/gw_hurricanes/fig33.jpg

exclusiv · on March 31, 2016

Do we really think a century of data is a lot? Especially when you are talking about ~20 events per year?

Can you explain why 1850 looks comparable or worse than the 1990s and worse than 2010s so far? I don't see what this proves.

The inputs for "man's impact" in the 1850s would not come close to modern day. If we took that into account, by your logic, the bar charts should explode out the top! But it doesn't. Not even close.

1850 - 1.2B people 2010s - ~7B people and a lot more pollution

From your linked data, the impact of AGW on hurricanes over the last year = 0

Edit: I think you may agree with me that it doesn't point to more extreme weather events. If so - my comment is directed at the parent.

tsax · on March 31, 2016

Yes to your 'EDIT'. If we can't even see increasing frequency of hurricanes, then how can we even begin to attribute things to AGW?

gone35 · on March 31, 2016

I'm saying "humans messing with the atmosphere has increased the variance and severity of our weather.

You should know that's a somewhat dated view. The scientific consensus is now much less certain about the link. See e.g. [1, p.7].

[1] http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FI...

mason240 · on March 31, 2016

>I'm not saying "global warming causes all the hurricanes",

That's exactly how you wrote it.

>Like Hurricane Katrina or Hurricane Sandy? Or the streets of Miami flooding?

It's a great example of what the problem is. If you aspire to being a great negative example, I guess that's your prerogative.