To be precise, I'd say the article's core argument is something like: The obfuscated upper bound of $40/mo/subscriber cannot be recovered since the transparent pricing upper bound is $20/mo/fan. ESPN currently accounts for approximately half of all revenue for major league sports teams. The internet is driving unbundling which is forcing a move from obfuscated to transparent pricing.
With that premise and those numbers from the article, the crash will be something like a 35% drop in revenue (bounded by 25% and 50%) for sports teams when the transition from obfuscated to transparent pricing is complete. That seems like a big deal.
I think the mistake is assuming that $20/mo/fan is the upper bound. That's just a baseline direct subscription number. What ESPN should do then is offer a menu of more specialized sports products on top of that baseline. I do think there's going to be a painful transition in their business model in moving from leveraging a price from a wide range of cable subscribers, to offering premium products directed at sports fans. But, for all the pain, I think there's plenty of money to be made.
Pricing per-month is not the way to go. They need to move to streaming, and price per-event. $5 per event sounds like a great deal, and I bet I'd end up spending more than $40/month at that rate at least at certain times of the year (i.e. when my favorite sports are in season).
With that premise and those numbers from the article, the crash will be something like a 35% drop in revenue (bounded by 25% and 50%) for sports teams when the transition from obfuscated to transparent pricing is complete. That seems like a big deal.