This feels like an insane proposition to me, I'll explain:
1. Soaring egg prices are due to culling + deaths related to the proliferation of H5N1 (Avian Flu).
2. The reason we have been proactively culling is to minimize spread AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to minimize the number of exposures H5N1 could have to Humans.
3. The reason we want to minimize exposure between chickens and humans is because each exposure of an infected chicken to a human is an opportunity for the virus to jump host, and adapt to better transmit amongst humans. The mutation (mammalian adaptation of the virus) can happen in the chicken before it jumps to a passing by human, or in the human once infected with the virus.
We are only a few minor adaptations away from this thing being BOTH extremely deadly AND extremely transmissible between humans. Worst case scenario. The latest strands found in Canada and now Nevada are extremely deadly, and just need the Human to Human adaptation. With enough at bats, it will have it.
The idea of dramatically increasing the number of humans exposed to sick flocks by having people start their own backyard chicken coops feels suicidal, for humanity.
The latest hospitalized patient in Georgia was exposed through a backyard flock, by the way.
20 years ago, Thailand almost overnight got rid of backyard chicken farms:
> Perhaps the biggest and most lasting change, Auewarakul says, is that this outbreak abruptly accelerated the transition from backyard chicken farmers to large-scale industrialized poultry farms. He says this was a big cultural transition since chickens had been part of everyday life for many Thai families. [...]
> The shift to these industrialized farms has not fully eliminated avian flu in chickens, but the disease has been largely contained. With ongoing monitoring, cases are often identified early and dealt with before the virus can gain a foothold.
Throughout entire human and chicken collective history we somehow haven’t managed to get wiped out by chicken transmitted decease - and suddenly its practically imminent and only massive mega farms can keeps us safe.
A thought occurs - perhaps it’s the mega farming that is the root of this problem and having some backyard chickens won’t really move the needle any closer to doom?
What has changed is the population density of humans. Disease outbreaks aren't at thing you can understand by summing all the disease vectors.
There is no needle - it only takes one case. While a megafarm may be a bigger vector, it can be quarantined, whereas everyone having backyard farms can not.
Farming changed radically after the 1950s, so pretty recently. It's pretty reasonable to believe it will. If you've been anywhere near mega livestock operations of any kind then you would know.
Let's say I have a few chickens in my backyard that don't have bird flu, and we (myself or my chickens) never come into contact with any other chickens.
Aren't we safe? If not, what are the possible vectors? Is it from random birds flying in my yard? My visits to grocery stores?
No, you're not safe if your chickens are exposed to wild birds. If they're outside feeding on seed that other wild birds also have access to they're at risk.
Your birds could get sick from other birds. It doesn't just affect chickens. I'd exercise precautions with your birds. Both to keep them quarantined from wild birds and keep yourself and family quarantined.
> The reason we have been proactively culling is to minimize spread AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to minimize the number of exposures H5N1 could have to Humans.
The reason the US has been culling is because they refuse to vaccinate chickens. Even China began vaccinations in 2004 ... over 2 decades ago.
3,062 CNY/T -> $422/tonne -> $0.287/dozen @ 24 oz / dozen large eggs [1]
while US eggs are still nonsensically priced at $8.03 / dozen. [2] Like worldwide logistics doesn't even exist. Seems like a market discrepancy when there's several 100 to 1000 cargo ships transiting the Pacific currently that might be loaded with 3,062 CNY/T ($0.29/dozen) eggs.
Not exactly cost concerns but it’s definitely economic in nature. The US exports a lot of poultry (broilers, not eggs) and the importers test for avian flu with tests that are incapable of differentiating between a vaccinated bird and an infected one. If we were to vaccinate our birds, the broiler farmers would lose access to the much more lucrative export markets. Since the market is so competitive domestically, that would essentially spell the end for much of the industry (which is a national security concern, aka never gonna happen).
Instead the US performs cullings and reimburses the farmers, which has the knock on effect of wiping out all the egg laying hens our own domestic market depends on to protect the broiler export markets.
I can believe the export market is much larger than the number of chickens killed so far, but the cost of developing a better test seems likely to be lower, especially given future outbreaks.
We have a backyard flock where the run and coop are completely enclosed. So in theory they should be more protected given that no birds or critters can get into that space to give my chickens bird flu.
That being said, I have no faith in the Trump government to do the right things required to stop the spread of this and I feel like we are pretty screwed either ways.
Unfortunately, you backyard flock is not protected. It's airborne, is suspected to be infectious up to 5km between farm sites, and also can be contracted via fomite transmission. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but your birds will likely get infected at some point in the coming 18 months, or sooner, and can be a real attack vector for something nasty for you and your family. The latest mutation across herds in Nevada/Canada both in birds and cows has a real nasty adaptation (D1.1) which has a suspected mortality rate in humans around 50%. Several hospitalizations in humans related to this specific mutation, acquired by individuals dealing with backyard flocks. The logic that your backyard flock mesh is sufficient to protect the flock and you from this pretty nasty bug isn't supported by the evidence we're seeing pan out across the country/world.
Another worrisome attack vector is cats, but that's a whole other pandoras box we'll leave alone for now.
To get an idea of how transmissible/infectious this thing is, it has jumped from birds in Asia, to dolphins in florida, and has eradicated entire populations of seals in latin america, cows, cats, ferrets, rats globally, to almost all bird populations in Antarctica. There is no species / geographic radius that will likely to unaffected. The death rate in each species may vary considerably (cows in US as an example, don't seem to die in great numbers), but it is highly transmissible even between species.
I'm sorry these aren't the best sources, but I'm in a rush and wanted to help you get an idea of what we're dealign with here in the context of your backyard flock, specifically. If you keep digging in all of the themes above you'll find even better sources:
Wouldn't that situation be fairly common for backyard chickens? I feel like most people who keep chickens in their backyard aren't going to have contact with other chickens.
The exception would be a neighborhood/community where a lot of people have backyard chickens. But even then, wouldn't the chance of infection still be low?
It's not chicken flu, it's avian flu. You have to control for contact with all birds. I have a neighbor with chickens. They aren't always cooped up so they often mix with the wild pigeons and mourning doves. Even still, they just have simple cages that can be pecked/pooped through.
Completely enclosed runs and coops are very much the exception to the rule. Most backyard chickens are just fenced off (they can't really fly after all), meaning they're exposed to other birds.
Certainly not all humans at the same time, but yes the classical scourge diseases that have killed millions throughout history have zoonotic origins due to living closely with animals.
I commend them for following their conscience, but I would also commend someone for going to work for the defense industry because they thought it was the best way to protect people. I don't think there are any easy moral answers when it comes to defense.
The tools I built were used to defend aircraft. So they were protective. But the aircraft have missions, which are often destructive, but not always. The company I worked for got bought by Lockheed Martin, which very definitely makes weapons of destruction. So that was a factor in my leaving.
'In accepting an honorary degree from the University of Notre Dame a few years ago, General David Sarnoff made this statement: "We are too prone to make technological instruments the scapegoats for the sins of those who wield them. The products of modern science are not in themselves good or bad; it is the way they are used that determines their value."
That is the voice of the current somnambulism.
Suppose we were to say, "Apple pie is in itself neither good nor bad; it is the way it is used that determines its value." Or, "The smallpox virus is in itself neither good nor bad; it is the way it is used that determines its value." Again, "Firearms are in themselves neither good nor bad; it is the way they are used that determines their value." That is, if the slugs reach the right people firearms are good. If the TV tube fires the right ammunition at the right people it is good.
I am not being perverse. There is simply nothing in the Sarnoff statement that will bear scrutiny, for it ignores the nature of the medium.'
If you disagree with the statement, "guns don't kill people, people do," then you agree with McLuhan's maxim of the medium being the message and that there is no such thing as an unbiased tool.
You can use a hammer to screw and a screw to hammer, but the biases for their respective uses are embedded in their affordances. McLuhan argues that the same can be said for any tool, whether it's a binky or a bomb.
Charlie Munger just passed away. Created a ChatGPT founded on his writings over the years. He recently commented on AI saying "I think old-fashioned intelligence works pretty well." Well, Charlie, here's an AI that hopefully lets your brilliant traditional intelligence live on.
I might be wrong, but most of these programs have partner banks, which take part of the revenue for themselves. I think it's more likely they make Fed Funds minus some take rate from the bank, so maybe Fed Funds - 0.50bps. Point still stands, but I don't think they're making 3.75-4%. Wealthfront is passing through 3.30%, so likely only making 0.25bps on that cash.
If you work for the USPS in California, you have a 1.23% chance of being attacked by a dog. This doesn’t adjust for repeat dog incidents, nor whther
You have a desk job or are in the field. Likely much higher for mail carriers in the field which is nuts
Has nothing to do with the payment platform you chose is my best guess. Has to do with what you were paying to send ad traffic to, and possible misrepresentation of facts on that page. Were you testing landing pages for concepts where you didn't include terms of use, privacy policies or misrepresented the state of your product?
hmm...just trying to build some self awareness in this community around how easy it is to hate on MBA's as a group. We're soooo allergic to that type of rhetoric when it's anyone else, but not at all when it comes to the "business" or "MBA" side of the house.
Imagine the phrase "Fuck Your Engineering Bullshit" was used instead - I'm pretty sure there'd be a lynching.
I think "engineering bullshit" and "mba bullshit" are comparing apples to oranges. Mbas definately spew much more and different types of bs than engineers.
1. Soaring egg prices are due to culling + deaths related to the proliferation of H5N1 (Avian Flu).
2. The reason we have been proactively culling is to minimize spread AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to minimize the number of exposures H5N1 could have to Humans.
3. The reason we want to minimize exposure between chickens and humans is because each exposure of an infected chicken to a human is an opportunity for the virus to jump host, and adapt to better transmit amongst humans. The mutation (mammalian adaptation of the virus) can happen in the chicken before it jumps to a passing by human, or in the human once infected with the virus.
We are only a few minor adaptations away from this thing being BOTH extremely deadly AND extremely transmissible between humans. Worst case scenario. The latest strands found in Canada and now Nevada are extremely deadly, and just need the Human to Human adaptation. With enough at bats, it will have it.
The idea of dramatically increasing the number of humans exposed to sick flocks by having people start their own backyard chicken coops feels suicidal, for humanity.
The latest hospitalized patient in Georgia was exposed through a backyard flock, by the way.
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