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That sound dubious. Can you back that claim up?


I read the book 'Homelessness is a Housing Problem' by Greg Colburn recently, it has a lot of data and makes a good argument for this position. A good direct comparison is between Seattle, WA and Charlotte, NC... they've both experienced a ton of growth in the last couple decades, but Charlotte's more favorable geography has made it much easier to build housing to keep up with this growth.

You can also look at places like West Virginia, or Balitmore, which have high rates of crime/addiction but low rates of homelessness- housing is cheap over there.


But isn't the crime and livability correlated such that low crime areas like Seattle are more desirable places to live. And, that's why housing is more expensive?

Baltimore is very high crime and as such inexpensive and as such low levels of homelessness.


That's why you just cherry pick the data to fit the narrative you like of course

/s


What causes you to find it dubious? Homelessness rates track housing costs pretty directly in studies I’ve seen.


Still outlandish. Not especially well defended either.


We're far enough away from 2045 that it seems hasty to completely discard it as outlandish. But, yes, unlikely.


That is correct.

Your beliefs are also irrelevant here. If prices were dropping, inflation would be default be negative. That is, deflation.


Inflation is the rate of change. If inflation is positive prices are rising. Inflation can be declining (second derivative) but still positive.

Right now inflation over a 12 month period is higher than the historical norm of about 2%, but is falling. For individual months it’s been mostly normal levels.

Largely a nothing story.


Make perfect sense. Thank you


Hold up. They did this on beat saber… with a 50000 class output (one per user).

They seem to be using mod songs, and are not accounting for the fact that people are playing different songs.

Your motion is entirely determined by the song. I think they’re just identifying pairs of song choice and user height.

Note that one of their metadata features is “replay > 100”, meaning they probably have examples of the same user doing the same song many many times


Seems like a good way to validate it would be to have everyone play the same set of songs. Then to tell if the predictions work, see if it can find each different song each individual plays. I hope the design wasn't as bad as you say.


Reading into it more, the second most predictive feature was a context variable. That is, identifying features of the specific song.

I think this one gets a thumbs down from me.


I like the use of “statists” to negatively refer to people who use facts to support their arguments.


Those wild and crazy people in favor of any form of government!


Just don’t read it and don’t get rid of your account?


> We don’t have any obstacle left in mind that we don’t expect to get overcome in more than 6 months after efforts are invested to take it down.

Tell a robot to do something new and have it do it.


No kidding. I worked for a while at a startup focused on creating robots that can do a fairly difficult, human involved industrial task. The software in question used existing robotic arms and attempted to automate the work.

The challenges associated with that project were some of the hairiest things I've seen in my career, and they still don't really have it working last I heard. If GPT-4 can even _help_ write a system like that in six months, I'll eat my hat.

Seriously, if by 8/21/23 you can demonstrate a robot perform a task that previously took a human to do, which is currently outside the mainstream scope of automation, using code that an LLM wrote, please email me a video to the address in my profile and I will record a video of myself eating my favorite hat. Subject to terms and conditions, etc.


The output of models like GPT-3 can generate unique works.


Can’t make a sandwich though.


An associate is typically a fresh MBA grad or someone with a few years of tenure out of school.

Awkward imbalance of levels aside, I enjoy the consulting lifestyle personally. It’s interesting to work with many different clients and have enough political clout to get things done on a fast timeline.


Consultants get things done? Apart from a deck of slides?


They do. The client paid a load of money to hear what the consultant said, there’s a lot of incentive to act on it otherwise you’re the exec that hired a load of consultants only to ignore them.


Having been on the receiving end of two McKinsey decks, in my admittedly limited experience, no, they don't. But the package somewhat looks good.


Please tell me more about my job.


That used to be my job as well ;)


Then it seems you wasted your time.


Don't forget the invoices.


I work at McKinsey. Many times business is better during hard times contrary to what you may think. ymmv


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