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The book "Good and Real" opens with this thought experiment and has a good discussion.


Scroll down to find the (IMO) more interesting papers. As mentioned in a few comments on the linked page, people tended to submit and upvote very meta articles.


Change the other places you used the old one.


Change all passwords that are non-unique.


If the article is correct (future really bad, tricked public going to invest on day 1), wouldn't it make sense to invest and sell very soon?

Is something special about an IPO where you have to hold it for some time?


That's a great idea and a lot of people are going to do exactly that. However, think about this: It's a bubble, it will pop, but we don't know when it will pop.

Imagine you want to invest a million dollars and sell when you have doubled your investment. The sooner and cheaper you can buy the stock, the greater your chance to double your million dollars. The longer you wait, the higher the chance that you will be one of the suckers whose investment makes other people rich.

The safest strategy is to buy at the offering price and sell as soon as the stock reaches your target for selling (double in our example). You pay the least and get out the soonest, before the collapse. With every passing minute, the price of the stock rises but the probability of the bubble popping before it reaches your target also rises.

So how do you buy at the offering price? By having a cosy relationship with the investment bank leading the issue, that's how. Do you have a cosy relationship with the investment bank leading the issue? If not, you are playing a game rigged to make other people rich at your expense.

Of course, if you like the fundamentals and plan to buy and hold, that's a different matter. But if you're playing the speculation game, you ought to know that the casino is rigged and that you are not in the business, you are the business.


So what you're saying is it's a game of chicken?


It's a game of Jenga with gold pieces. If you get a piece out, you win your piece. If the tower collapses, everyone still playing loses their money.

And as you can see, the insiders, VCs, and their customers get to play first and leave the game before you get a chance to pull a piece out.

UPDATE: Man, I'm pessimistic today! Don't forget the converse side of the coin: The game may be rigged, but still you might have a good bet to make!


Wow, this is the first time since early 2000 I've seen the "greater fool theory" espoused without irony. Maybe it really is a bubble, now.


Wow! I had no idea the technology was there. It really seems like science fiction.


Of course, they wouldn't tell you about it, but Russians have been doing automatic docking for the past 20 years:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurs_%28docking_system%29


This is an interesting counterpoint to the OP (from your link):

  When I was starting to learn Linux after getting frustrated
  and formatting Windows ME off my HDD, I quickly learned how
  to ask questions the smart way: go to a Linux-promoter's 
  forum and say, "Windows does <insert task> better than Linux"
  or "Linux is bad because it can't do <insert task>". Every 
  time I did this, I was flooded with solutions... unless I 
  was right. Either way, I had my answer. Meanwhile, if I 
  asked questions the smart way as recommended by Raymond, 
  I'd be lucky if I received any answers -- I'd have already 
  done a bunch of research, and this would be clear, so 
  nobody else would feel the need to do experimenting or 
  research on their own to figure it out.


If I only need to get one question right it doesn't take many questions before (3/4)^n is smaller than the chance the professor, for whatever reason, avoided C.


I disagree. I'd put that probability at 0 after n=7.

In fact, according to the recent reddit thread, some test designers are encouraged to enforce equal proportions of each option. While stupid, it lowers the threshold to n=3 or so.


Combined with perpetual crunch time, it has the potential to be an anti-perk (since then you won't ever get paid for those days).


Simple is not short. A very short explanation could be given in formal mathematics but it would not be simple.


I don't know if it counts as a serious philosophy book, but I really enjoyed Godel, Escher, Bach. Math, computers, consciousness, etc.

I'm currently reading Reasons and Persons. Thought experiments and discussion about how personal identity works under, eg, transporter copies.


I think many readers will be surprised at how accessible "Gödel, Escher, Bach" actually is. I'm not an expert at anything: I have no work experience and maybe two serious computer science courses under my belt, but GEB really satisfies an intellectual curiosity I've had for years. I'm 550 pages in (out of about 750 pages) and with the exception of the two chapters discussing the anatomy of the human brain (a subject I'm just not that interested in), I've torn through this book—I only started reading about three months ago, which means I've been reading GEB much faster than any other book I've ever opened. I highly recommend "Gödel, Escher, Bach" even to those who have seen other people recommend it yet have been reluctant to try it out.


> (out of about 750 pages)

Come on, it's 777 pages for a reason! :)

When I realized the page count (purposefully) included the index I was quite tickled. So many gems, little and large...


Plus one to this, it really is quite readable, I think it's overly characterized as very dense and difficult.


Godel, Escher, Bach won a Pulitzer Prize; I think that counts as serious. :)


it may be serious, but it is not 'philosophy' as the topic is generally understood. (not to discount it as a worthwhile read.)


Actually, at its core it is philosophical and mathematical logic. So yes, it is philosophy.


I bought GEB when I was 13, mostly because I liked the Escher paintings. I was hooked after reading the first Achilles/Turtle episode, though, and even though many concepts went over my head at the time. I still haven't read it cover to cover, though, but I still have a hard time not agreeing with this particular recommendation.


+1 Reasons and Persons. The Personal Identity section in that in particular is wonderful! It's a really good book because it kind of stands alone -- you don't need to be very well-versed in philosophy to get the arguments if you read carefully.


It's taken me 6 months to get through part 1. GEB is a tough read.


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