| ||Ask HN: Gates, Musk, Hawking, and others have voiced concerns over AI. Why?|
7 points by Billesper on July 16, 2015 | hide | past | favorite | 8 comments |
|What evidence is there that developing even a rudimentary general/strong AI is remotely likely in the near future (within the next 10, 20, 50, 100 years)?|
1) What is the state of general AI research? Are there any promising (i.e. having some measure of real progress) approaches currently?
2) Are the major problems/roadblocks to creating a strong AI even known in any sort of nontrivial sense?
(To be clear, please leave discussion about "if we have a strong A.I., it will/could be a threat because...." for a different thread. The question is about why the prospect of a general A.I. is being seriously considered in the first place)
From doing a bit of research, it seems like most contemporary AI methods are statistical/optimization techniques in Machine Learning, etc. These can be extremely powerful tools, but as far as I can tell, they are applied to very specific problem instances. Is there any hope of more powerful/general techniques emerging from this area?
It seems like a real solution is not simply a matter of time (within the next 100 years or so), but instead will probably take several major breakthroughs and insights coming from unknown places to achieve.
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