=== Overview "Computers" -- an astoundingly popular collection of new products? ...

graycat · on June 23, 2015

Good comparison.

But I was writing my Ph.D. dissertation just as daisy wheel printers were becoming popular. Then there was no doubt: I typed my dissertation into a text editor on a computer (I was from my non-academic work already really good with those two tools) and printed it out on a daisy wheel printer.

That approach was much better than a typewriter because of the accuracy (I have horrible aptitude as a typist and desperately need the power of a text editor and computer to make corrections), the speed (could get a new copy at 30 characters per second), and could make revisions quickly and easily, and I made a lot of revisions before I handed in a copy. Then for a prof I had to add a few words of clarification to a paragraph -- did that, printed the whole thing again, and returned the result to him on paper in 24 hours. Yes, the only place I could do that word processing was at my office, but that was still better than my typewriter at home.

More generally, one of the most important uses of computers has been for document preparation, and that is still a big need, if only for a post at HN where I'd much rather have my computer than a smartphone.

I might have become a tenured prof, but the main bottleneck was just getting my academic mathematical word whacking done. Net, I couldn't do it. Flatly. No way.

The word processing group of the university I was in couldn't do it. I couldn't do it with just a typewriter. Halt. Full stop.

Doing the academic research? Fun and easy. Writing up the math? The same. Getting the typing done? Just impossible.

Now I can do mathematical academic word processing with my good set up on my PC of D. Knuth's TeX, etc. For the last paper I published, after I gave up on being a prof, I used TeX -- it worked great.

But, sure, a smartphone wouldn't help with TeX. TeX on a smartphone? F'get about it.

Net, a PC is a great tool, for many things, e.g., nearly all of document preparation, much better than a typewriter, even though a typewriter has some advantages as you point out. For nearly all of document preparation, the extra cost, complexity, etc. of a PC are very much worth it. Really, net, PCs replaced typewriters.

So far I have no use for a smartphone. One reason is that I stay at my PC working on my startup. My phone is right here, with its signal running through my PC's FAX modem card so that I can use my text editor to find and dial phone numbers -- also save phone numbers.

In time a mobile device may replace a PC. But need:

(1) A good replacement for a keyboard. Maybe voice or brain waves would work if can reduce the detailed complexity of much of current keyboard input, e.g., HTML and CSS markup.

(2) A good replacement for a mouse, and a finger on a screen is not good enough.

(3) A way to view output much better than a small screen. Sure, may be able to use some special glasses. Sure, if 3D is to play a big role, then special glasses may be the way.

(4) Appropriate versions of, or replacements for, a lot of crucial PC software, e.g., my favorite text editor, Knuth's TeX, PDF writers, lots of old programming languages, libraries, source code, etc. I have a lot of such I very much do not want to be without.

(5) Backup, say, to the cloud, that can trust enough to replace tape, writable DVDs, external USB hard drives, etc. Lawyers are a biggie threat.

(6) Have enough trust in the Internet finally to depend on it nearly totally.

(7) Solid solutions for the many, severe security threats of mobile devices.

(8) A way to get data to replace getting data just by saving Web pages. E.g., when I shop for or buy things on the Internet, I want to keep the associated Web pages.

Sure, maybe (1)-(8) will come. E.g., for storage, maybe some of nanowires, what HP is doing, etc. will mean that all my storage can be in little cubes, about the size of a sugar cube, I can write and store in my side desk drawer, also on the Internet in case of fire. Also stick under the insulation on the floor of the attic where no way can lawyers find it.

But, just for now, biggies are some comparatively simple things -- keyboard, mouse, screen, laser printer, DVD R/W, and a few more. E.g., I still use my laser printer for some crucial things. Indeed, I still keep my daisy wheel printer as the best way to address envelopes for USPS -- they are still in business, not yet totally replaced by the Internet.

Here's another thought: PCs are here and so far there is nothing to replace them.

But as it slowly becomes possible to replace PCs, they will be replaced not by mobile devices but slowly by a sequence of incrementally better PCs, some of which might have form factor and power requirements to permit being mobile.

Over time, maybe it will be possible to replace PCs. Sure, Windows XP replaced Windows 3.1 and PC/DOS -- that was incremental as I believe the replacement for a PC will be.

In strong contrast, smartphones and other mobile devices won't replace PCs, at least not for a while.

Look, A16Z, there are some uses for smartphones: Teenage girls are genetically compelled to gossip, 24 x 7 if they can, so need at least cell phones. Nearly everyone who works from a panel truck wants at least a cell phone. Cell phones are a good replacement for the radios that taxicabs used to use, and now smartphone are crucial to Uber, etc.

But for the billions of smartphone users, the reason was simpler: It was much cheaper just to put up cell towers than to lay copper cable. Ergo, smartphones instead of land lines. But don't expect that several billion people in mud huts will be using their smartphones to order four feet wide TVs from Amazon.

With some irony, as the Internet improves, the need to move around will lessen and, then, so will the desirability of being mobile.

Or, having two locations, one at home, and one more at an office, and driving between the two, is a bummer -- waste time, money, and energy. Being mobile is often a bummer.

nekopa · on June 23, 2015

I come at the mobile 'changes everything' just in my usage of computers and mobile devices.

I still use my laptop as a creation device, mainly for your point 1 above, I do like a good keyboard and mouse, but I do like touch interactions for certain things, and I think my next 'main' computer will have a touch screen.

I use my tablets as consumption devices mainly. I love reading, and I find the iPad has a great form factor for reading certain types of books - tech books, graphic novels etc.. But I also have an 8" tablet with pen, which I love, because the one thing I still love to do by hand is brain storm, mind map and just plain sketch out ideas. It's the main thing I miss being able to do on my main PC. And I love the mobility and battery life of tablets for when I am consuming around the house or in the garden.

My smart phone is mainly just a phone, but it is also my tap of flowing information. Be it a map when I am in a new city, or a quick lookup on wikipedia to settle a debate over beers, I find it invaluable for its niche.

So maybe I don't take the view you do that they have to replace the PC, I just find my life is much enriched when I use all of them together, each for what it is best at - for example, if I am working through a coding book I find it much easier to have the book open in the iPad next to the keyboard, than having the pdf open on the second monitor. A quick tap of the tablet and the page turns while I still have my terminal focussed and able to be typed into.

And as for the billions of people coming online with cheap smart phones - I don't expect them to be shopping Amazon - but I am working on, and I hope others will be too, a way for them to get information they need, when and where they need it, to improve their lives. It could be something as simple as an African farmer checking his crops and seeing weird spots on them, taking a photo and sending to a forum of farmers, and maybe within minutes receiving info on what he should do next to protect his crop.

Not everyone has the option (or desire maybe) to be tied to their home and never have to leave. Being mobile should be a choice, then it may not be quite the bummer you think it is.

graycat · on June 23, 2015

We essentially agree. But in places you are misinterpreting my position.

I have nothing against smartphones and will get one when I have a good use for it -- which so far I do not.

> So maybe I don't take the view you do that they have to replace the PC

I don't think that smartphones have to replace PCs; and I believe that for now they can't replace PCs for all but a small fraction of heavy PC users.

My beef with the OP was the frequent comparisons with PCs, thus, suggesting that smartphones are about to replace PCs: There were a lot of nice graphs and nice data, but those didn't establish the suggestion of replacement.

Beyond the hints of replacement was the claim "mobile changes everything". Well, it won't change PCs for a long time. Proof: Big screens, mice, good, full keyboards, printers, CD/DVD R/W devices, old software. QED. Dirt simple.

I do differ with you on reading computer documentation. I really, really want that documentation on the same computer I am using to write the software: For my software project, I have about 6000 Web pages, PDF files, etc. of documentation, in four collections, Windows, SQL Server and ADO.NET, Visual Basic .NET, and TCP/IP and ASP.NET.

In each collection I have a simple flat ASCII file with, for each such document in that collection, the title of the document, an abstract of the document, often some notes of my own, often relevant short code samples from the document, the original URL of the document (except for the relatively few documents I wrote myself), and the file name, date, size, etc. of the document on my disk. My favorite editor is terrific for searching, reading, revising those four files. Terrific.

Then, in my code, when I make important use of such a document, I include in the file of my code a comment with the tree name and title of the document.

Then, when reading such code, in my editor one keystroke displays the document for me. So, maybe I have a homegrown version of an IDE with Intellisense or some such. But it works for me. I document the heck out of my code. Any code that is not just trivial has such comments.

Currently the source code for my project has about 80,000 lines with only about 18,000 programming language statements -- we're talking a lot of documentation, and a lot of that documentation is references back to my collection of 6000 documents.

So, net, I want the four collections, the 6000 documents, my favorite text editor with my 200 or so macros, and the code I'm developing all on the same computer -- call it a network effect.

For screen area, I'm short on that, but I have a little code I wrote that does a useful screen rearrangement -- moves the windows, preserving the Z-order, so that the UL corners of the visible windows are equally spaced on a line from roughly the top center of the screen to the left center of the screen. That way I can make good use of about 20 windows open at once.

So, a lot of those 20 windows are for documentation. Sure, usually soon I close such windows and then rearrange the remaining.

For what window has what, I can see the UL corners of each of the windows, and also keep in mind the Z-order and position new windows on the LL of the screen.

E.g., having such windows of documentation open on a tablet would be a bummer since as I write code I add documents to the collection and commonly cut and paste documentation or code from the documents into code comments, notes of my own, etc.

E.g., when reading code I really like that one keystroke to show me the relevant documentation -- couldn't easily do that if the documents were on a tablet.

Mobile device? Don't need one. Can't see how it would help. I'll get one when I need one. It won't replace my PC -- for a long time.