"coaches are [...] often just irrational. Coaches should go for it on 4th-and-short more often than they do, but getting stopped on 4th down is demoralizing"
If it is demoralizing enough, and the game (or the season, if being demoralized has a long enough half-life) still has plenty of time to go, that may mean the coaches are acting rational by not playing the short-term better option.
Extreme example: suppose a missed two-point conversion makes your team become absolutely worthless for the rest of the game. If so, you probably shouldn't go for a 2-point conversion at 6-0 in front with 30 minutes to play, even if its success rate is 95%.
If it is demoralizing enough, and the game (or the season, if being demoralized has a long enough half-life) still has plenty of time to go, that may mean the coaches are acting rational by not playing the short-term better option.
Extreme example: suppose a missed two-point conversion makes your team become absolutely worthless for the rest of the game. If so, you probably shouldn't go for a 2-point conversion at 6-0 in front with 30 minutes to play, even if its success rate is 95%.