Shouldn't "NSA" be replaced with "FBI" in all three scenarios (and all additional scenarios)? After all, the news release from the FBI indicates that the conclusion is the FBI's, not the NSA's.
Further, the equation of "competent" and "correct" in the scenarios is ill-founded; competent people can reach incorrect conclusions and vice versa.
> Since we know that the NSA is filled with highly competent people (based on the quality of the people who periodically join the commercial world after a stint at the NSA) we can probably consider 1 or 2 the most likely explanation.
Perhaps, but even if so, #1 and #2 need to be expanded to:
1a. The FBI is competent, and has correctly determined that NK is responsible, and is accurately reporting its correct determination.
1b. The FBI is competent, but has nevertheless incorrectly assessed that NK is responsible, and is accurately reporting its incorrect determination.
2a. The FBI is competent, and has correctly determined that NK is not responsible, and is misrepresenting its correct determination.
2b. The FBI is competent, but has nevertheless incorrectly determined that NK is not responsible, and is misrepresenting its incorrect determination.
Further, the equation of "competent" and "correct" in the scenarios is ill-founded; competent people can reach incorrect conclusions and vice versa.
> Since we know that the NSA is filled with highly competent people (based on the quality of the people who periodically join the commercial world after a stint at the NSA) we can probably consider 1 or 2 the most likely explanation.
Perhaps, but even if so, #1 and #2 need to be expanded to:
1a. The FBI is competent, and has correctly determined that NK is responsible, and is accurately reporting its correct determination.
1b. The FBI is competent, but has nevertheless incorrectly assessed that NK is responsible, and is accurately reporting its incorrect determination.
2a. The FBI is competent, and has correctly determined that NK is not responsible, and is misrepresenting its correct determination.
2b. The FBI is competent, but has nevertheless incorrectly determined that NK is not responsible, and is misrepresenting its incorrect determination.