The example from the article regarding the Track & Field results might imply otherwise. Would random chance be able to exhibit a performance curve which begins to plateau?
I think it probably could, if for example the population of athletes was growing the entire time: then with a larger population, the #1 athlete (the person farthest out on the tails) will keep 'setting records'. If you draw from a distribution like the normal distribution 1000 times, the single most extreme datapoint will (almost always) be much more extreme than if you sample just 10 times.
To check this, you'd try to figure out some measure of population of Track & Field athletes (or maybe a crude proxy like entire USA or global population?), apply extreme-value theory to estimate how much the record should increase each year, and see if it undershoots the observed increases.
But wouldn't a plateu in performance also cause a plateu in record setting? I suppose if it proves that records continue to be broken without gains in performance than random chance is likely at play.
An aside, thanks for the EVT reference. Something new to learn.
> But wouldn't a plateu in performance also cause a plateu in record setting?
No, not if there's variability in performance and an expanding population. Records are set by the most extreme person, not by the 'average performance'. If you have a billion runners, even if the average runner is slower than before (performance not just plateauing, but diving), you may still wind up with some freak with perfect genetics and simian arms and obsessive personality setting a new record, because when you look at a billion runners, odds are one of them will be bizarre in just the right way to set a new record.
