The passengers of the Titanic on the morning of April 14, 1912, would likely have considered writing off two thirds of their number in the event of a maritime mishap equally unacceptable. However that's precisely what happened within 24 hours.
Ebola is spreading and doubling rapidly -- every 20 days with the most recent data I've seen, and the case count in both Liberia and Sierra Leone exceeds that of the early-September projection made in the New England Journal of Medicine. It's not only well above the _median_ prediction, but it exceeds the 95% confidence bound.
UN WHO have stated flatly that we've got to achieve a 70% effective containment to stop spread of the disease or we're entering a stage for which they have no plan.
Not only is the prospect of failed containment concerning, but so is the fact that there's currently no contingency plan should that occur. It strikes me as an epic failure of imagination.
Given growth rates and prospects for loss of containment, it could be far more than a quarter of a continent at stake.
Ebola is spreading and doubling rapidly -- every 20 days with the most recent data I've seen, and the case count in both Liberia and Sierra Leone exceeds that of the early-September projection made in the New England Journal of Medicine. It's not only well above the _median_ prediction, but it exceeds the 95% confidence bound.
UN WHO have stated flatly that we've got to achieve a 70% effective containment to stop spread of the disease or we're entering a stage for which they have no plan.
Not only is the prospect of failed containment concerning, but so is the fact that there's currently no contingency plan should that occur. It strikes me as an epic failure of imagination.
Given growth rates and prospects for loss of containment, it could be far more than a quarter of a continent at stake.