I don't know, the advance leaks of the last few iPhones doesn't seem to have hurt their publicity much. (And millions ain't much to Apple; they are rumored to have spent millions on the U2 debacle. But I do take your greater point about the massive interest in Apple's product announcements being very valuable...)
I just looked it up - the usual estimate is that the original iPhone introduction generated $400 million worth of free publicity. Even to Apple, that's a lot.
Although one might argue that Apple TODAY is so much of a market leader they don't need the surprise factor as much as they did in times past. Apple used to be a clear underdog that punched way above its weight class by using gimmicks and clever marketing for their signal to escape an over-crowded playing field. Now that Apple is the big dog, they might not need that so much.
Tim's clearly no Steve, but maybe he doesn't need to be.
