A Simple Probability Puzzle (or why humans suck at assessing probabilities)

[nickb]

http://toshuo.com/2007/a-simple-probability-puzzle/

[Tichy]

I hope that is a joke (especially the guy "solving" it with a emulation in LISP).

[mynameishere]

THT vs THH

If you are looking for pattern #2, and you roll THT, you can start over at the third flip. Thus THTHH finds the second pattern.

If you are looking for pattern #1, and you roll THH, you have to flip a forth time to start over.

I'm not a mathematician, so that's probably not right anyway. Obviously, he's looking for some kind of "trick".