1. Facebook does has a great Social Network and the chances of people moving elsewhere is unlikely because they have developed a critical mass. Millions of people are already invested in Facebook. Fads are easy to change. Its not easy to opt out of Facebook because your friends drag you back. I cannot go and join another network because none of my friends are there.
2. You say the social OS is poorly executed but you have to remember its early days and I am eager to see how the integration of Parakey will change Facebook. You are right when you say there is a lot of app crap, however slowly but surely I expect better more useful apps to be developed as Facebook become more professional. Its a fun social network at the moment but I've seen my friends profiles change significantly since joining megacorp. Their profiles are now like resumes.
3. The Privacy-Invading Ad Network pisses me off. But because of number 1 (above) I think its one of those things that will be accepted as a fait-accompli. Us guys and girls in the tech community may start a fuss, but Facebook now has millions of members. We can be ignored and if the majority of people don't care, I doubt Facebook will change things.
Conclusion - Its too early to tell were Facebook is going (they probably don't even know). Somethings about it may piss us off, but the tech community's influence in Facebook will wan.
Couldn't your Point #1 also be said of MySpace before?
The problem for Facebook is that the cost for the users of switching to a newer social network site is practically zero. A little bit of time to create your profile, but no real significant costs.
If 3 of your most significant friends from FB emailed you about a new, free, social site, would you ignore their emails, or would you go check it out and maybe join them? If you joined them, how many people would YOU attempt to drag over?
but Myspace never had the effect of Facebook because the social aspects are limited. The tie-in is not as string as Facebook and how many of us actually had a myspace page we updated regularly when Myspace was big? The privacy aspect of Facebook has prob been the main difference between the two companies
Social aspects aren't especially more limited in Myspace. You have friend lists, bulletins, status feeds, and profile comments-- all of the most popular features of Facebook. You don't have "MySpace Apps" but people add stuff like quizzes to their pages and send questionnaire bulletins all the time.
Good analysis. I think Facebook made a brilliant move by focusing on the "utility" aspect. They even describe themselves as such in their tag line. They don't say "a place to meet people", or "connect with your friends", ...etc. They say: we're a "social utility".
I believe they're aiming to be the next-generation replacement of email. A tool through which you connect with people for all purposes. I use it to connect with friends, and recently for business connections as well. They still have a long way to go, so we shouldn't judge them by the features they have today. At least they're moving in the right direction.
The trouble is, no walled garden will be able to replace email. Email works because it's open -- anyone who can set up an MX record and an SMTP server can send and receive email. Social networks will succeed if someone can figure out how to make it open in the same way. I'd say that's probably the future of communication on the web... some amalgamation of email, IM, and social networks. Meebo gets close, but I think for IM to work, it has to be integrated with the desktop. Maybe an AIR version or something like that...?
1. Facebook does has a great Social Network and the chances of people moving elsewhere is unlikely because they have developed a critical mass. Millions of people are already invested in Facebook. Fads are easy to change. Its not easy to opt out of Facebook because your friends drag you back. I cannot go and join another network because none of my friends are there.
2. You say the social OS is poorly executed but you have to remember its early days and I am eager to see how the integration of Parakey will change Facebook. You are right when you say there is a lot of app crap, however slowly but surely I expect better more useful apps to be developed as Facebook become more professional. Its a fun social network at the moment but I've seen my friends profiles change significantly since joining megacorp. Their profiles are now like resumes.
3. The Privacy-Invading Ad Network pisses me off. But because of number 1 (above) I think its one of those things that will be accepted as a fait-accompli. Us guys and girls in the tech community may start a fuss, but Facebook now has millions of members. We can be ignored and if the majority of people don't care, I doubt Facebook will change things.
Conclusion - Its too early to tell were Facebook is going (they probably don't even know). Somethings about it may piss us off, but the tech community's influence in Facebook will wan.