I doubt it. A bought a 16GB SD card a little while back, and it cost maybe $30. A Blu-ray disc holds 25GB single-sided, and 50GB double-sided, and probably costs well less than a dollar to press.
Just checked at Amazon.de, the price for a writable blu-ray disk seems to start from 5€, for a 25GB disc. 16GB USB sticks were around 23€. It does not seem that far away?
Also, I suppose Blu-Ray will be stuck at it's size because of the norms and patent hell, whereas sticks can just continue to grow. Flash drives are becoming popular, so the price of Flash in general might come down.
But as a content producer you're not burning stuff onto writable Blu-rays. You're pressing them in a factory at a cost well less than $1 a disc.
Whereas a USB stick, even bought in large volumes, can only be so cheap.
You don't care if memory sticks can grow - you have, say, 20GB of content you want to deliver to your customer. It's just extra cost if you buy a 40GB memory stick to carry it.
I just don't see any incentive (other than marketing/coolness) for distributing anything on a USB stick.
You are correct but you are looking at it from the wrong perspective.
Who cares about reprogramming your stick: for blu-ray, you want to buy a movie. The movie studio is the one wanting to make a profit, so most of the sale price of the movie should not go into the media.
Therefore, mass producing blu-ray movies, at around $1 (or less) per disc is very effective (the studios will sell you the movie at $9.99 or more).
When will a USB stick for 20GB cost less than $1? It's still quite far off.
The assumption, of course, is that you will have 20+gb of content on a Blu-Ray disc. I am not convinced this is often the case, and an independent could produce these slightly-higher-cost items for distribution and put all sorts of material on them.
Flash is a loooooong way from beating the disc.