No, you're correct. Their business model has to be and is going to be advertising, just as obviously as Facebook and Google's business models are.
Facebook is printing immense profits now. It wasn't that long ago a lot of people were proclaiming that could never happen. That's not to say Twitter will do the same, but it's entirely plausibly they can reach a modestly profitable ad-based business model off a couple billion dollar sales basis (which it seems they will be able to reach).
> Facebook is printing immense profits now. It wasn't that long ago a lot of people were proclaiming that could never happen. That's not to say Twitter will do the same, but it's entirely plausibly they can reach a modestly profitable ad-based business model off a couple billion dollar sales basis (which it seems they will be able to reach).
I'm not sure I would say immense, but they are certainly making profit. Facebook makes a little more than half the profit of HP (which many HN users may have forgotten still exists).
What is immense is its valuation of 80 times earnings even while the product is literally running out of humans left to be new users (let alone humans who have money).
I of course didn't say anything about their obviously outsized valuation, but I have to play devils advocate on the profit levels. I fail to see how tracking at a likely $5 billion in net income for fiscal 2015 is not immense. Just the $3.2 billion they'll likely do this year is immense.
That puts them in the top 200 global corporations in terms of profitability. That is truly immense - especially for a 10 year old business (that has only been a functional business for maybe five years).
Take for example McDonald's, they do $5.5 billion in profit. Who wouldn't consider MCD an immense business? Facebook will catch them in two years.
They're tracking a similar profit level as: Aflac, Metlife, Traveler's, Deere, Rio Tinto, Caterpillar, Inditex, Lockheed, Gilead etc. These are incredibly massive businesses.
HP did $1.2 billion last quarter. Facebook will catch that basis within four or five quarters at the rate they're going. HP is a 75 year old company.
> What is immense is its valuation of 80 times earnings even while the product is literally running out of humans left to be new users (let alone humans who have money).
This is what amazes me. The last few humans left without a facebook account are those earning $2 day. What possible business model can sustainably boost earnings 10x from here?
Also those that made a few fake facebook accounts to stalk people in highschool, but never had an actual account because they had not more than a handful of friends and did not want to give an american coorporation all their personal details. Oh, also countless variations Jesus and Mohammed accounts giving spiritual advice to strangers.
Facebook is printing immense profits now. It wasn't that long ago a lot of people were proclaiming that could never happen. That's not to say Twitter will do the same, but it's entirely plausibly they can reach a modestly profitable ad-based business model off a couple billion dollar sales basis (which it seems they will be able to reach).