> So the US media clings to their same old models and is "shocked" when an upset occurs. And then they usually search so fast for a reason, they miss the real reason in the process. Hollywood has been missing the mark too. They also need to throw out their models and start over. BADLY.
This seems to assume that the US media is interested in having an accurate model of reality. I think it's far more reasonable to assume that the US media is driven by self interest, and 'shocks' and 'upsets' are part of what consumers are interested in. Speedy answers, not accurate answers. The model works for them.
To quote Steve Jobs from a Wired interview in 1996:
"When you're young, you look at television and think, There's a conspiracy. The networks have conspired to dumb us down. But when you get a little older, you realize that's not true. The networks are in business to give people exactly what they want. That's a far more depressing thought. Conspiracy is optimistic! You can shoot the bastards! We can have a revolution! But the networks are really in business to give people what they want. It's the truth."
People want to know who won the election. Getting that wrong does not help news networks in any way.
And, it's not like news media are the only people who try to predict elections. Eric Cantor and Mitt Romney had vested interests in winning their elections, but they still got it surprisingly wrong.
This seems to assume that the US media is interested in having an accurate model of reality. I think it's far more reasonable to assume that the US media is driven by self interest, and 'shocks' and 'upsets' are part of what consumers are interested in. Speedy answers, not accurate answers. The model works for them.
To quote Steve Jobs from a Wired interview in 1996:
"When you're young, you look at television and think, There's a conspiracy. The networks have conspired to dumb us down. But when you get a little older, you realize that's not true. The networks are in business to give people exactly what they want. That's a far more depressing thought. Conspiracy is optimistic! You can shoot the bastards! We can have a revolution! But the networks are really in business to give people what they want. It's the truth."