Brazil with 33.1% of change of winning and Germany with 13.2%? No way. | Hacker News

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		talles on June 27, 2014 \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: World Cup Follow-Up: Update of Winning Probabiliti... Brazil with 33.1% of change of winning and Germany with 13.2%? No way.

pfortuny on June 27, 2014 [–]

The problem is that they meet (if at all) before the final, so the probabilities of Germany go down very fast if you assume they will lose against Brazil more probably.

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